‘Not our friends’: Victorian Coalition warns Advance’s ‘bizarre’ AI campaign may cost it majority government

Advance is a conservative lobby group campaigning against Labor in Victoria. It says the state election is a trial run for a similar campaign at the federal election. This matters because its message differs from the Coalition’s direct appeal for voters to put Liberal and National candidates first.

The campaign’s centrepiece is a 60-second AI-generated video. It features Premier Ben Carroll and former premiers Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews. The ad repeats Advance’s instruction: “whoever you put first, put Labor last”. Advance plans to distribute it through social media, streaming services, mobile billboards and print.

Coalition MPs say the message could undermine months of campaigning that presented their parties as the only way to defeat Labor. Advance says Labor is vulnerable because conservative votes are split and Labor relies on preferences. Its strategy is also intended as preparation for a future campaign against Anthony Albanese.

Advance has selected 20 Victorian suburban and regional seats currently held by Labor. The campaign is designed to test its anti-Labor strategy before the group uses it in a federal election campaign. The scale matters because several target seats are central to the Coalition’s path towards a majority government.

Advance’s executive director, Matthew Sheahan, sought donations to fund the operation. The campaign is expected to cost about $350,000. That money would pay to put the group’s messages in front of voters through social media, streaming services, mobile billboards and print advertising.

The campaign was set to begin on Monday, according to the article. Its 60-second AI-generated ad focuses on Labor’s three most recent premiers and urges voters to put Labor last. Advance says Labor is behind, conservative votes are divided, and preferences could determine whether it remains competitive.

Coalition candidates have spent months telling voters that the only way to defeat Labor is to vote for Liberal and National candidates. Advance’s instruction is different. It prioritises putting Labor last, even if voters place another conservative candidate first. MPs fear that difference could weaken their own vote in closely fought seats.

The risk is greatest where One Nation is also competing. Advance’s anti-Labor message may encourage some conservative voters to support One Nation before the Coalition. If those votes are divided, the Coalition could lose the first-choice strength needed to win seats outright or secure a majority across the state.

Advance argues that the Coalition and One Nation cannot win a majority alone, while Labor depends on preferences. Electoral analyst Ben Raue said the strategy could hurt the Liberal and National parties because they are trying to hold their right flank. The Coalition therefore continues to say voters must vote one for its parties.

These seats matter because they sit at the intersection of the three-way contest involving Labor, the Coalition and One Nation. The article identifies them as seats targeted by One Nation and says they are also crucial to a Liberal path to majority government. Their results could therefore affect both representation and government formation.

Pakenham is described as ultra-marginal and is being contested by Warren Pickering, One Nation Victoria’s leader. Bass, Hastings, Melton and Yan Yean are also among the seats being targeted by One Nation. Advance is campaigning in all 20 selected Labor-held seats, including several of these electorally important contests.

The central issue is vote splitting. The Coalition wants conservative voters to choose its candidates first. Advance wants voters to put Labor last, regardless of their first choice. If One Nation attracts enough first-choice votes in these seats, preferences and later counting could affect whether the Coalition defeats Labor or falls short of a majority.

Preference votes are a voter’s backup choices in a preferential election. A ballot can rank candidates in order rather than selecting only one. If no candidate has enough support after first choices are counted, the lowest-placed candidate is removed and those ballots are transferred to their next available preference.

For example, a voter might choose a One Nation candidate first, the Coalition second and Labor third. If One Nation is eliminated, that ballot can transfer to the Coalition. If the Coalition is later eliminated, it can transfer again to Labor, depending on the voter’s ranking and the election rules.

The article says Labor is reliant on preferences and that 25-35% of Coalition and One Nation voters indicate they would preference Labor ahead of each other. This helps explain the dispute. Advance wants voters to rank Labor last, while Coalition MPs fear its broader message could still divide conservative first-choice votes.

Advance’s goal is to reduce Labor’s chances by persuading voters to rank Labor last. But that message does not require voters to choose the Coalition first. Some voters could instead make One Nation their first choice while still following Advance’s instruction about Labor.

The article names Pakenham, Bass, Hastings, Melton and Yan Yean as seats targeted by One Nation and important to a Liberal path to majority government. In those contests, an anti-Labor message could direct conservative voters towards One Nation. If One Nation takes votes from the Coalition, the Coalition’s first-choice support may fall even as Labor is pushed down the preference order.

Advance says its polling shows 25-35% of Coalition and One Nation voters would preference Labor ahead of each other. It argues the Coalition and One Nation cannot win a majority alone. Coalition MPs instead say Advance’s strategy could help One Nation and damage their immediate state election campaign.

Political lobby groups can have goals that differ from the short-term interests of individual parties. Advance says its Victorian campaign is a trial before a federal election campaign against Anthony Albanese. Its aim is to weaken Labor and influence the overall conservative vote, rather than simply deliver every seat to the Coalition.

That approach creates tension in marginal state seats. The Coalition wants voters to support its candidates first because it is pursuing a majority government. Advance wants voters to place Labor last, allowing them to choose One Nation or another conservative option first. The result can benefit one conservative party while making another’s path harder.

Ben Raue described this as a “rising tide lifts all boats” strategy. He said it made sense given the Coalition’s weakness in federal politics, but was unhelpful to the Victorian Coalition. Advance also cited its earlier federal campaign, which went hard against the Greens and helped Labor, as evidence of a broader strategy.