Benny Gantz drops out of Israel’s election race

Benny Gantz announced that he would not run in Israel’s October 27 election. He said he would “continue to work for unity.” The decision removed a former opposition leader and former army chief from the contest, though commentators said his departure would not greatly change the race.

The immediate reason was electoral danger. Polls repeatedly placed Gantz’s Blue and White party below the 3.25 percent threshold for entering the 120-seat Knesset. A party below that level cannot win parliamentary representation, so continuing the campaign offered little practical benefit.

Gantz’s political path had already focused on unity arrangements. He joined a national unity government with Benjamin Netanyahu from 2020 to 2021 and later joined Netanyahu’s war cabinet. Analysts said he had lost political influence after remaining in that government, while opposition leaders called his withdrawal correct and responsible.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, and it has 120 seats. It is the national body whose elected members represent parties and help determine which political bloc can form a government. Winning votes is therefore not enough by itself; parties must also qualify for parliamentary representation.

Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold is the minimum vote share a party needs to enter the Knesset. The threshold works as a gatekeeper. A party that receives less than 3.25 percent is excluded from the seat allocation, even if it receives many thousands of votes.

That rule explains Gantz’s withdrawal. Opinion polls consistently showed Blue and White below the threshold before the October 27 election. The party therefore appeared unlikely to win any seats. The threshold also shapes coalition politics because only parties that cross it can contribute elected members to a governing majority.

The Knesset contains 120 seats. That total determines the size of parliament and the scale of the majority needed to control it. Because several parties compete for those seats, a bloc can lead the election without having enough members to govern alone.

In this election, polls projected that two Arab-led electoral lists could win 13 seats. These lists represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 percent of the population. Their projected seats are therefore much larger than the number needed to be merely symbolic in a closely divided parliament.

The practical importance comes from the tight race. Netanyahu’s Likud-led far-right coalition and a self-styled Zionist opposition alliance were both short of a parliamentary majority in polling. The two Arab-led lists could become important in coalition arithmetic, although both main blocs had ruled out forming a government with them.

When a party receives less than Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold, it does not enter the Knesset. In practical terms, the party wins no parliamentary seats, even though voters supported it. The threshold prevents very small parties from receiving representation under the election’s seat-allocation system.

Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party faced exactly this risk. Opinion polls consistently placed it below 3.25 percent before the October 27 vote. That meant the party was on course to disappear from parliament rather than win a small group of seats. Gantz withdrew rather than continue a campaign with little apparent electoral prospect.

The result also affects the wider political balance. Votes cast for parties that fail to cross the threshold do not create Knesset members who can join a coalition. This can make the parties that do qualify more important, especially when competing blocs are closely matched and neither appears likely to win a majority.

Arab-led parties can matter because parliamentary governments need enough seats to govern, and the polling showed neither main bloc near a majority. The two lists were projected to win 13 seats. In a tightly divided 120-seat Knesset, that bloc could provide the difference between an unstable government and one with enough support.

The key mechanism is coalition arithmetic. A bloc can negotiate with smaller parties for formal membership, outside support, or backing on particular votes. Even if the Arab-led parties do not join a government, their members could influence whether a proposed coalition reaches a majority or survives key parliamentary decisions.

The article says both main blocs had ruled out forming a government with the Arab-led lists. That does not erase their numerical importance. It makes coalition-building harder and could force the main blocs to seek other partners, rely on limited support, or remain unable to form a stable government after the election.

When no bloc wins a majority, parties usually try to build a coalition. The largest bloc can recruit smaller parties by agreeing on shared policies or government roles. Several parties can also combine even if none individually dominates parliament. This is a normal response in systems where seats are divided among many parties.

Parties may also seek outside support. A smaller party can support a government on confidence votes or selected legislation without formally joining the cabinet. Another possibility is a minority government that governs while negotiating issue by issue. These arrangements can work, but they are generally more vulnerable when support is narrow.

The article describes a tight race in which neither main bloc appeared likely to win a majority. It also says both blocs rejected cooperation with the Arab-led lists. That leaves them needing other partners or a workable support agreement. If coalition efforts fail, parliamentary systems may require another attempt to form a government or another election; the article does not specify which would happen here.

Israel uses coalition governments because elections can distribute parliamentary seats among several parties instead of giving one party control. A government needs enough Knesset support to pass legislation and remain politically viable. When no party or bloc has enough seats alone, parties must cooperate to govern.

Proportional representation is the key mechanism. Parties receive seats broadly according to their share of the vote, subject to the 3.25 percent threshold. This allows multiple parties to enter the 120-seat Knesset. Smaller parties can then hold seats that larger parties need when building a governing majority.

The article shows the effect directly. Polls placed Likud’s far-right coalition and a Zionist opposition alliance in a close race, with neither projected to win a majority. Two Arab-led lists could win 13 seats, but both main blocs rejected joining with them. The result is a fragmented parliament and difficult coalition negotiations.