New Survey Shows 61% of Ukrainians Oppose Land for Peace Deal

The survey asked whether Ukraine should withdraw its troops from the entire Donbas and hand the region to Moscow. In return, Ukraine would receive security guarantees, making the proposal a land-for-peace trade. It matters because it would surrender territory Russia has not fully captured militarily.

A concrete example came from eastern Ukraine, where 45% said they could accept the deal, while 51% called it completely unacceptable. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that leaving Donbas could free Russian manpower and create new threats elsewhere in Ukraine. The mechanism is straightforward: withdrawal could reduce Ukraine’s defenses and release Russian forces for other fronts.

Nationally, 61% rejected the proposal, compared with 35% who were prepared to accept it. Opposition reached at least 50% in every region and 66% in Kyiv. KIIS said pressure had not produced greater acceptance, suggesting any future peace plan would face strong public resistance.

The Donbas is a historic, heavily industrialized region in eastern Ukraine. It mainly includes the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, near Ukraine’s border with Russia. Its location has made it strategically important during Russia’s war against Ukraine.

In the article, “all of the Donbas” means territory in this eastern region that Russia seeks to control. A KIIS poll tested whether Ukrainians would accept withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the Donbas for security guarantees. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that withdrawal could free Russian forces for attacks elsewhere.

That proposal remains widely rejected. Between October 8 and 16, 61% called it completely unacceptable, while 35% could accept it. Opposition reached at least 51% in every region, including eastern Ukraine, and 66% in Kyiv. These findings show why Donbas remains central to peace discussions about territory, security, and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

The proposal would give Moscow all of Ukraine’s Donbas in exchange for security guarantees. It matters because 61% of surveyed Ukrainians rejected it, while 35% accepted it and 4% remained undecided.

KIIS surveyed 1,031 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older by telephone, using randomly generated mobile numbers. It covered government-controlled territory, including internally displaced people. It excluded occupied areas and Ukrainians who left after February 24, 2022.

Opposition appeared across the country: 51% rejected the proposal in eastern Ukraine, while 66% rejected it in Kyiv. The results suggest pressure has not changed opinion significantly, with a formal margin of error up to four percentage points.

KIIS said the 57% and 62% figures were close enough that sampling variation could explain the difference. The change was not large or reliable enough to show that Ukrainians’ views had genuinely shifted.

The first figure came from interviews on October 8–9, while the second covered October 10–16. Although opposition rose five points, KIIS said this remained within the poll’s margin of error. Researchers could not link it confidently to pressure following the US “diesel deal” with Moscow.

The broader result was stable: 61% rejected giving Moscow all Donbas for security guarantees, compared with 35% who accepted. KIIS concluded that pressure had not increased willingness to accept the proposal. The poll surveyed 1,031 adults and had a maximum four-point margin of error.

Withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the Donbas could weaken Ukraine’s military security, even with security guarantees. It would give Russia control of the region and remove Ukrainian forces from a key defensive area. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Moscow could then free troops for attacks elsewhere.

The danger is not only losing land; it is giving Russia more soldiers and space to threaten other Ukrainian regions. The source says Russia has failed to capture the Donbas militarily in 12 years, showing the region’s continuing strategic importance. A withdrawal could turn a contested front into a launching point for pressure beyond the Donbas.

Ukrainians largely reject this risk: 61% called the proposal completely unacceptable, while 35% would accept it. Opposition reached 66% in Kyiv and remained above 50% in every region. The poll suggests most Ukrainians see withdrawal as a security threat, not a reliable path to lasting peace.

The Donbas has been central because Moscow seeks more than land there. It is Ukraine’s eastern industrial region, bordering Russia and containing territory Moscow has demanded. The source calls Ukrainian troop withdrawal a Kremlin war goal tied to a wider effort to subjugate Ukraine. Forcing Ukraine to abandon the region would weaken its defenses and challenge its sovereignty.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in March that leaving the Donbas could free Russian manpower. That manpower could then threaten other parts of Ukraine, turning a territorial concession into a broader security danger. Earlier US proposals repackaged this Kremlin objective as peace terms, offering security guarantees in return. This shows the dispute concerns future military pressure, not only present borders.

Ukrainian public opinion shows why the issue remains politically central. KIIS found 61% considered surrendering all eastern Donbas unacceptable, while 35% could accept it. Opposition reached at least 51% in every region and 66% in Kyiv. Russia has not captured the Donbas militarily, but its continued demand keeps negotiations focused on whether Ukraine can preserve sovereignty and defense.

Security guarantees are promises that other countries will help Ukraine if attacked. They could bring weapons, intelligence, sanctions, or troops, but they do not transfer land or control. Sovereignty and armed forces mean Ukraine keeps its government, territory, and power to defend itself.

The poll tested a proposal for Ukraine to withdraw its troops from all Donbas in exchange for guarantees. Outside help might follow a future attack, but Russia could control the territory and Ukraine would lose direct defenses. Guarantees rely on others keeping promises; sovereignty and armed forces remain Ukraine’s own protection.

KIIS found 61% considered this concession completely unacceptable, while 35% could accept it. Opposition topped 50% in every region, reaching 66% in Kyiv. The results suggest Ukrainians see promises as insufficient compensation for surrendering territory, independence, and military capacity.