Kallas: Russian Black Sea strikes deepen ‘perfect storm’ for world food supplies

The Black Sea grain-export route is the sea corridor Ukraine uses to send grain abroad. It matters because Ukraine is one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat, maize and barley, and most of those shipments leave by sea. Keeping this route open connects Ukrainian farms with overseas buyers.

The route has come under pressure from suspected Russian drone strikes on civilian shipping. Kaja Kallas said vessels were attacked six times in 10 days. The strikes hit ships off Romania and Bulgaria, while Russia is also accused of targeting routes Ukraine uses to export grain.

The immediate effect is reduced security for ships and higher pressure on Ukraine’s export earnings. The wider risk is disruption to global food supplies. The EU has urged the safe passage of civilian shipping in the Black Sea to be restored immediately, but the article gives no timetable for doing so.

Ukraine plays a major role in global grain supplies. The article identifies it as one of the world’s leading exporters of wheat, maize and barley. Most of this grain is shipped by sea, so attacks on maritime routes can affect both Ukrainian trade and the wider food system.

The financial impact is estimated at around €60 million in lost export revenue each day. Kaja Kallas linked this loss to what she described as Kremlin efforts to choke off Ukraine’s income while Russian troops make little progress on the battlefield. The figure measures export earnings, not the total value of all Ukrainian agriculture.

The article does not give Ukraine’s exact share of world grain exports. It does show that Ukraine’s role is large enough for route disruptions to raise international concern. With other pressures already present, continued losses could make food shipments harder to maintain.

The article says Russia is suspected of using drone strikes against civilian shipping in the Black Sea. Kaja Kallas accused the Kremlin of trying to choke off Ukraine’s export income. She described six attacks on vessels in 10 days as a dangerous and unacceptable escalation.

Some strikes hit ships off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria. These locations matter because Romania and Bulgaria are members of both the European Union and NATO. The attacks therefore occurred close to countries tied to European political cooperation and a collective defence alliance.

That proximity explains the alarm across Europe. The article does not say that NATO members were directly attacked, or that NATO has taken military action. It does show how threats to civilian shipping can create wider security concerns. EU leaders have called for safe passage for Black Sea shipping to be restored immediately.

When Ukrainian grain cannot reach world markets, less grain is available through an important export channel. That can place extra strain on global food supplies, especially when other producers face poor conditions. The article says Russia’s actions make it harder to put food on people’s plates across the world.

The pressure comes alongside a “perfect storm”: a super El Niño, drought in both hemispheres, and conflict in the Middle East that is straining fertiliser exports. Together, these problems can affect harvests, production costs and transport. The article specifically warns about food-system pressure, but does not state a definite price increase.

Countries and households that depend on imported grain could face greater uncertainty if shipments remain disrupted. Global reserves are larger than in 2022, offering some protection. However, continued attacks could still make reliable supplies harder to secure and deepen pressure on vulnerable food systems.

The EU created “solidarity lanes” after 2022 to move Ukrainian goods overland through its member states. They were designed to reduce reliance on the Black Sea, allowing exports to travel across neighbouring countries instead of being carried by sea.

Their key mechanism is simple: goods cross borders by land and pass through EU territory. This provides a backup when maritime shipping is blocked or unsafe. The routes connect Ukraine’s exports with wider markets without requiring ships to use the contested Black Sea corridor.

However, these alternatives are also under threat. Kaja Kallas said Russia is targeting border crossings with Moldova, Romania and Poland. The article therefore presents the lanes as important but vulnerable. If both sea routes and land crossings face disruption, Ukraine could lose more export income and global grain movements could come under greater pressure.

The 2022 Russian blockade left 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain stranded. This happened because Ukraine’s main maritime export channel was blocked, preventing grain from reaching overseas markets. The episode demonstrates the scale of disruption that can follow when shipping routes are closed.

The blockade matters now because Ukraine still sends most of its grain by sea. Suspected attacks on civilian ships threaten to create a similar bottleneck, even if the current situation is not described as an identical blockade. The EU has built overland solidarity lanes, but the article says those routes face pressure too.

There is one difference in the current outlook: global grain reserves are larger than they were in 2022. That may provide some buffer. Still, the combination of maritime attacks, threatened land routes and wider climate and fertiliser problems means the earlier crisis remains a warning about what could happen next.

The world’s food supply depends on both production and movement. Drought and a super El Niño can reduce harvest conditions, while fertiliser shortages or disrupted exports can make production harder. Grain reserves provide a cushion, but they cannot replace normal supplies indefinitely if several problems continue.

Transport is the connecting link. Ukraine produces major quantities of wheat, maize and barley, but most exports leave by sea. If ships are attacked or border crossings are threatened, grain may not reach buyers even when it has been harvested. That disconnect can add pressure to global supplies.

The article says reserves are in better shape than in 2022, when 20 million tonnes were stranded. Yet it also describes a combination of drought, climate conditions, conflict and transport threats. The outcome depends on whether reserves and alternative routes can offset these overlapping disruptions.