Jaishankar voices concern over Gulf situation during talks with UAE, backs safe flow of trade

S. Jaishankar told UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan that India is deeply concerned about the Gulf situation. He stressed that disruptions could threaten trade, energy supplies, and fertiliser access. These priorities matter because India depends on stable international routes and maintains a large community in the UAE.

Jaishankar said India would support all efforts promoting dialogue and diplomacy. He also backed the “free, safe and unimpeded flow” of trade, energy, and fertiliser. His message combined security concerns with practical economic priorities, rather than calling for confrontation.

The talks took place as tensions involving the United States and Iran continued, while a Houthi missile was intercepted near Riyadh. India’s stated approach is to work with the UAE and support diplomatic efforts. Jaishankar also thanked the UAE leadership for ensuring the well-being of Indians living there.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. It is a maritime chokepoint, meaning a relatively narrow route through which large amounts of shipping must pass. The article refers to it as a key waterway affected by regional conflict.

Oil tankers carrying crude and petroleum products use the strait to leave Gulf ports. Liquefied natural gas carriers also pass through it, as do ships carrying other goods. Because alternative routes are limited and often have less capacity, even threats can increase insurance, freight, and delivery costs.

That makes the strait important far beyond the Gulf. Asian economies, including India, depend on Gulf energy and trade links. If passage remains open, shipments can move normally. If it becomes unsafe, governments and companies must seek costlier routes, suppliers, or emergency stockpiles.

The article does not provide a percentage for energy passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Based on established energy-market estimates, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through the strait, while about 20% of worldwide liquefied natural gas trade also uses it. Exact shares vary by year and by how flows are measured.

The mechanism is simple but powerful. Gulf producers load oil and gas onto tankers, and many of those vessels must pass through Hormuz to reach Asian, European, and other markets. Nearby Gulf routes add further importance because ports, pipelines, and shipping lanes operate as a connected system.

These volumes make even a partial disruption significant. Buyers may compete for replacement cargoes, while sellers face delays and higher transport costs. Governments could release reserves or use pipelines and alternate suppliers, but those options cannot immediately replace all seaborne Gulf flows.

If Gulf shipping becomes unsafe, the first effects would likely appear in transport and energy markets. Tankers could face delays, higher insurance premiums, or the need to avoid particular waters. Reduced supply reaching buyers can push up fuel prices, while longer journeys increase freight expenses.

Fertiliser costs could rise because the article specifically identifies fertiliser as a trade priority. Higher fuel and fertiliser prices can also increase farming, processing, and transport costs. Food prices may then rise as producers pass those expenses through supply chains. Other imported goods could become costlier for the same reason.

The severity would depend on how long shipping was disrupted and whether alternative routes or suppliers were available. Governments might draw on reserves, reroute cargoes, or seek diplomatic de-escalation. India’s call for safe, unimpeded flows reflects the importance of preventing these wider economic effects before shortages deepen.

The article identifies continuing tensions between the United States and Iran, with West Asian security and the Strait of Hormuz affected. It also reports that Saudi forces intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh. The Houthis, an armed movement in Yemen, were identified as the group that launched it.

Saudi Arabia is part of a Saudi-led military coalition backing Yemen’s government in its war against the Houthis. The UAE is presented differently in the article. Its deputy prime minister and foreign minister visited India to strengthen bilateral ties, and the UAE discussed regional concerns with Jaishankar. The article does not state that the UAE was involved in the reported missile attack.

These actors create overlapping security and diplomatic pressures. The United States-Iran tensions affect maritime confidence, while Houthi attacks can threaten regional shipping and cities. Saudi Arabia responds through interception and defence. India and the UAE emphasize dialogue, diplomacy, and protecting trade, energy, and fertiliser flows.

If Gulf routes were disrupted, India and other buyers could combine several alternatives. They could seek more crude and gas from suppliers outside the Gulf, including the United States, Brazil, West Africa, Norway, or Australia. They could also use available domestic production, strategic reserves, and faster investment in renewable power and efficiency.

Some Gulf cargoes might bypass Hormuz through pipelines. Saudi Arabia has the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, while the UAE has a pipeline linking inland fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. These routes can reduce dependence on the strait, but their capacity is finite and they do not carry every product or serve every destination.

A serious disruption would therefore require a mix of rerouting, supplier substitution, demand reduction, and diplomatic action. Spot purchases could support short-term needs but might be expensive. Over time, diversified suppliers, larger reserves, more renewables, and stronger international coordination would improve resilience without instantly replacing Gulf trade.

Conflicts spread economic effects through connected supply chains. A threat near a major sea route can delay ships, raise insurance costs, and reduce the supply reaching distant buyers. Energy prices influence transport and manufacturing, while fertiliser shortages can affect harvests and food prices. Countries far from the Gulf can therefore feel the impact quickly.

Dialogue and diplomacy help by reducing misunderstandings and creating channels for de-escalation. International cooperation can protect commercial shipping, coordinate emergency supplies, share information, and support safe passage. It can also encourage countries to respect navigation rules and settle disputes without attacks on infrastructure or vessels.

Jaishankar’s position reflects this preventive approach. He called for support for dialogue and diplomacy while defending free, safe, and unimpeded flows of trade, energy, and fertiliser. Continued cooperation between India, the UAE, regional governments, and wider international partners could limit disruption and strengthen confidence in global trade.