Does Trump’s 60-day tariff waiver really give relief to India?

Trump used Section 115 of the Graham Act to waive duties authorised under Sections 112 and 113. The measure covered tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas. India and China were potentially affected.

For India, the waiver removes an immediate choice between supply security and export access. Abandoning Russian crude could leave a major gap because Russia had been India’s largest supplier. Continuing purchases while facing a 100% US tariff could make Indian goods far less competitive in the American market.

The article describes the waiver as a response to US national interests, especially fears of higher oil prices. India had already increased Middle Eastern purchases to about 2.5 million barrels per day in September, while Russian imports fell to around 1.5 million. The waiver therefore provides flexibility rather than guaranteeing continued Russian buying.

Sanctions are government measures designed to restrict trade, finance, or other dealings with a targeted country or entity. Tariffs are charges placed on imported goods, usually making those goods more expensive or less competitive. They can influence behaviour without directly banning a purchase.

In this case, Section 112 authorised tariffs of up to 500% on goods imported from Russia. Section 113 authorised tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian-origin crude oil or natural gas. That second measure could have affected India and China, even though they were not Russia.

The distinction matters because India could face two different pressures. Restricting Russian oil purchases might threaten its refinery feedstock and fuel supply. Continuing those purchases could expose Indian exports to punitive US import costs. Trump’s waiver suspended the proposed duties under both sections, citing US national interest.

The legislation created two striking levels of exposure. Section 112 authorised tariffs of up to 500% on goods imported from Russia. Section 113 authorised tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas, including India and China.

The oil volumes involved were also substantial. India imported around 1.5 million barrels per day from Russia in September, according to the article. In the same month, Middle Eastern crude supply to India rose to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. These figures show how quickly India was adjusting its supply mix.

The waiver matters because a 100% tariff could severely weigh on Indian exports to the US, while abandoning Russian crude could remove a major supply source. The article also says Russia released more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel for US and global markets, highlighting the wider energy impact.

The United States may have granted the waiver because enforcing the legislation could hurt American consumers and businesses through higher oil prices. Trump certified that the waiver was in the US national interest. The article links the decision to America’s changing approach to Russian energy.

Natalia Katona says Russian crude had continued finding buyers, with the entire November loading programme already sold. She argues that forcing buyers away could disrupt future Russian flows. A tighter global oil market would then create pressure on crude prices, especially if replacement supplies were not immediately available.

The political timing also matters in the article’s explanation. With US elections approaching in early November, Katona believes Trump wanted to avoid another oil-price shock. The separate deal for more than 300,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel for US and global markets reinforces the point: energy availability and prices remained practical concerns.

If India stopped buying Russian crude, its single largest supplier would disappear from the supply basket. The article says there was no easy replacement because Middle East tensions were still affecting energy markets. Refiners could face greater difficulty securing feedstock, while fuel availability and costs could come under pressure.

If India continued buying Russian crude despite a 100% US tariff, Indian exports to the United States could become much less competitive. The tariff would raise the effective cost of those exports. That could reduce export earnings, even if refiners retained access to relatively useful Russian feedstock.

India had already reduced Russian imports to around 1.5 million barrels per day in September as Middle Eastern supplies rose to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. The waiver improves feedstock security and gives refiners more flexibility. With refinery expansions and strong diesel margins, the article says India could increase diesel and jet-fuel exports.

India’s main alternative is Middle Eastern crude. The article says supply to India rose to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in September. It also identifies several logistics channels: the Strait of Hormuz, dark-fleet movements, ship-to-ship transfers, alternative Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, and the East-West Pipeline.

These options work by widening the number of supply and transport routes available to Indian refiners. Middle Eastern crude exports reached nearly 15 million barrels per day in September. That increase strengthened India’s import availability while Russian imports declined to around 1.5 million barrels per day.

Middle Eastern oil is not automatically cheap or risk-free. The article says Middle Eastern tensions had previously limited supplies, while China’s competition for Russian barrels raised their cost. Black Sea attacks increased insurance and freight costs for Russian shipments. Abu Dhabi’s Murban pricing change could nevertheless improve transparency and procurement flexibility for Asian refiners.

Crude prices reflect how much oil is available against global demand. A tariff aimed at Russian energy can reduce access to supply, but its effect depends on whether other producers and routes can fill the gap. If not, tighter supply can lift prices and weaken the intended relief.

The Strait of Hormuz shows the mechanism. When its operation limits Middle Eastern supplies, India needs other sources. The article lists Red Sea and Suez routes, ship-to-ship transfers, dark fleets, and the East-West Pipeline. Refinery capacity then determines how much crude can be converted into diesel and jet fuel. Insurance and freight costs also change which source is competitive.

India’s September figures show this balance shifting: Middle Eastern supply reached about 2.5 million barrels per day, while Russian imports fell to around 1.5 million. Strong diesel margins and refinery expansions support exports, but global fuel demand and disrupted routes can still raise costs. That is why analysts feared Brent could rise above $110.