19.2 million Afghans could soon face ‘acute food insecurity’: UN

Acute food insecurity means a person or household cannot reliably access enough safe, nutritious food. It can force families to skip meals, sell belongings, or make other harmful choices. The article uses this term for people facing crisis-level hunger or worse. It is a warning that food access and coping ability have become dangerously weak.

Famine is a much more severe, area-wide condition. It involves extreme shortages of food and very high levels of hunger, malnutrition, and death. The article does not say Afghanistan is in famine. Instead, it says five million people may face emergency-level hunger, which is “one step away from famine.”

The distinction matters because action can prevent conditions from becoming irreversible. OCHA urged assistance before winter, including food, livestock protection, farming support, and accessible health, nutrition, and water services. Early help can stop crisis-level hunger from escalating further.

The projected scale is enormous. OCHA says 19.2 million people in Afghanistan may face acute food insecurity during the winter lean season from November through April. That is more than the 15.9 million people already experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse between September and October.

Within the winter total, about five million people are expected to face emergency levels of hunger. OCHA’s Afghanistan spokeswoman Olga Cherevko described this level as “one step away from famine.” The figures show that the crisis is not limited to isolated households. It affects a huge share of the country’s population.

The rise means winter could sharply increase pressure on families and aid services. OCHA called for food assistance before people exhaust their coping options. It also urged support for livestock, farmers, and essential health, nutrition, and water services. The warning is about preventing today’s crisis from becoming tomorrow’s catastrophe.

Food insecurity is expected to worsen during the winter lean season, which runs from November to April. This is the period when pressure on household food supplies and livelihoods is projected to grow. OCHA expects the number facing acute food insecurity to rise from 15.9 million to 19.2 million.

The article links this worsening outlook to years of drought, conflict, economic hardship, and other shocks. Families have already worn down their ability to cope. OCHA also says farmers need support before critical planting windows close, while livestock and productive assets need protection. These needs show how winter can threaten both immediate meals and future production.

Aid must arrive before winter, not after families have exhausted their options. Food assistance can address immediate hunger, while support for farmers and livestock can protect future livelihoods. But funding cuts have already closed or suspended about one third of nutrition sites, making the seasonal increase harder to manage.

Acute malnutrition develops when children do not receive enough nutritious food, or when repeated shocks weaken their health and ability to cope. It is especially serious in early childhood because children need adequate nutrition for healthy growth. The article projects that more than four million Afghan children aged six months to five years will need treatment next year.

More than one million of those children are expected to suffer severe acute malnutrition. OCHA says these are children whose parents cannot afford nutritious food. Their families’ coping capacity has also been worn down by years of conflict, economic hardship, drought, and other shocks. Food availability alone therefore cannot protect children when families cannot reach or pay for nutritious options.

The treatment need is rising as services shrink. Around one third of nutrition sites across Afghanistan have closed or suspended services, largely because of funding cuts. OCHA warned that the consequences could be irreversible, particularly for children. Keeping nutrition, health, water, and food services accessible is therefore urgent.

The crisis has built through repeated shocks rather than one single event. The article names years of conflict, economic hardship, and drought as forces that have worn down families’ ability to cope. Even a good agricultural year cannot repair damage caused by several years of drought.

Natural disasters added further disruption. Since 2023, millions of Afghans have also been forcibly returned from Iran and Pakistan. These returns increase pressure on households and services in a country already facing widespread hunger. Families may arrive or settle while lacking secure income, affordable nutritious food, or dependable public support.

The result is a crisis that affects both food access and livelihoods. Between September and October, 15.9 million people faced crisis-level food insecurity or worse. OCHA projects 19.2 million during winter. Humanitarian aid can save lives, but Cherevko said it cannot indefinitely replace economic opportunity and public services.

International aid declined after the Taliban authorities returned to power in 2021. The article says the Taliban imposed a severe version of Islamic law, including rules limiting women’s access to education and public life. The government remains largely excluded from the international community, which criticises those repressive measures. This political isolation has accompanied a sharp drop in assistance.

The funding shortage has directly affected services. Around one third of nutrition sites across Afghanistan have closed or suspended operations, largely because of funding cuts. Essential food, health, nutrition, and water services are also under pressure. As of late August, the United Nations had received less than 30 percent of the funding needed for life-saving assistance.

The consequences could be severe during winter. More than four million young children may need treatment for acute malnutrition, including over one million with severe acute malnutrition. Humanitarian aid can save lives, but it cannot permanently replace economic opportunity or public services.

Food availability and food access are different problems. A country can produce more food while many families remain unable to afford or reach it. The article says Afghanistan’s crisis is not simply whether food is available. It is also whether people can access and afford food.

This explains why improved rainfall and agricultural production have not solved the crisis. A farmer may harvest more, but a household without income may still be unable to buy nutritious food. Conflict, economic hardship, drought, and other shocks have also worn down families’ coping ability. One good harvest cannot undo several years of drought.

The current outlook shows the gap clearly. Despite better rainfall and production this year, 19.2 million people may face acute food insecurity in winter. More than four million young children may need malnutrition treatment. Food aid, support for farmers, and functioning health, nutrition, and water services are all needed to turn availability into real access.