Online retail market to cross $90b in 2026 with grocery overtaking mobiles: Redseer

Grocery overtaking mobile phones means grocery will generate a larger share of India's online retail sales in 2026. Fashion will remain the largest category. The change matters because it shows ecommerce growth is spreading beyond occasional, high-priced purchases into regular household consumption.

Grocery is projected to grow 50-53% during 2026. Its market share is expected to rise from 16% in 2025 to 19% in 2026. Mobile phones, meanwhile, represented about 19% of sales in 2025 but are expected to fall to roughly 16%.

The shift reflects steady demand for everyday goods and weak mobile growth. Mobile sales were flat in the first half of 2026, while grocery expanded strongly. Grocery, beauty and personal care, and home and furniture are expected to produce about three-fifths of new GMV added in 2026.

India's online retail market is projected to cross $90 billion in 2026. Redseer expects annual growth of 22-24%, making this the market's fastest expansion in five years. The scale shows how important ecommerce has become across several consumer categories.

Growth was already strong early in the year. Ecommerce GMV reached about $38 billion in the first half of 2026, up roughly 25% from the same period a year earlier. That was the strongest first-half performance in four years.

The growth is not coming equally from every category. Grocery is forecast to expand 50-53%, beauty and personal care 36-39%, and home and furniture 31-34%. Mobile sales were flat in the first half and are expected to grow only 2-3% for the full year.

Gross merchandise value, or GMV, measures the total value of merchandise sold through an ecommerce platform or market. It describes the scale of transactions passing through online retail. In the article, Redseer uses GMV to measure India's overall ecommerce market, not the earnings of one company.

For example, if shoppers buy goods worth $100 million through a marketplace, that $100 million contributes to GMV. The marketplace's revenue could be much smaller if it keeps only commissions, fees, advertising income, or other charges. The sellers' sales still count toward GMV.

Profit is different again. A company's profit is what remains after costs such as operations, delivery, salaries, marketing, and other expenses are deducted from its revenue. Therefore, rising GMV can show expanding online sales without proving that every ecommerce company is earning more revenue or profit.

Grocery, beauty and personal care, and home and furniture are benefiting from regular, everyday demand. Consumers repeatedly need food, personal-care products, and household items. That makes these categories steadier growth drivers than mobile phones, which are bought less frequently and can be delayed.

The contrast is clear in Redseer's forecasts. Grocery is expected to grow 50-53% in 2026, BPC 36-39%, and home and furniture 31-34%. Mobile sales recorded 0% growth in the first half. Sharp phone price increases are limiting sales volumes.

This changes the shape of ecommerce growth. These three everyday categories are expected to account for about 40% of total online retail GMV and roughly three-fifths of the additional GMV created in 2026. Grocery alone is expected to contribute nearly one-third of that added GMV.

The shift will change which categories dominate India's online retail sales. Grocery is expected to gain share as its sales expand quickly, while mobile phones lose share because their sales are barely growing. Fashion will remain the largest category, so grocery will move into second place.

Grocery's share is projected to increase from 16% of online retail GMV in 2025 to 19% in 2026. Mobile phones accounted for around 19% last year, but their share is expected to decline to roughly 16%. These figures show a clear redistribution of market weight.

The change does not necessarily mean mobile sales will collapse. Mobile sales are forecast to grow 2-3% for the full year, but that pace is far below overall online retail growth of 22-24%. As faster-growing categories add more GMV, mobiles make up a smaller proportion of the total.

Electronics sales rebounded because several specific forces pulled demand forward in the first half of 2026. Redseer described this as pre-loaded demand. The rebound was different from the broader mobile-phone trend, because electronics includes products affected by tax changes, discounts, shortages, and expected future price increases.

A GST reduction on large appliances, from 28% to 18% in September 2025, helped demand. Heavy air-conditioner discounting followed changes in Bureau of Energy Efficiency star ratings. An LPG shortage drove induction-cooktop sales 200-300% higher. Shoppers also bought laptops early before expected component price increases.

Together, these factors helped electronics grow 22% in H1 2026, after contracting 5% in the same period of 2025. The comparison shows that electronics can rebound through category-specific events, even while mobile sales remain flat because phone prices are curbing volumes.

A higher price means each phone costs more, but it can also make the purchase less affordable. Shoppers may delay replacing a device, choose a cheaper model, or avoid buying altogether. As a result, the number of phones sold can fall or stop growing even if the value of each sale rises.

The article links sharp mobile price increases to weaker volumes. Mobile sales recorded 0% growth in the first half of 2026 and are expected to grow only 2-3% across the year. This is far below the projected 22-24% expansion for India's total online retail market.

Overall ecommerce can keep growing because other categories are expanding faster. Grocery is forecast to grow 50-53%, while beauty and personal care and home and furniture are also projected to post strong growth. Their additional GMV can outweigh weak mobile performance and lift the total market.