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International Relations21 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

Shifting role of US in Middle East is like ‘raising a teenager’, ambassador says

The brief

The core change is a retreat from America’s traditional role as the region’s main protector. Barrack said the United States no longer wants to act as the world’s guarantor or “own” the Middle East. This matters because Washington’s security commitments have shaped regional politics for decades. The older approach linked American protection of the Arabian Gulf to access and influence around oil. Barrack said that arrangement is no longer the goal. He also argued that earlier Western influence benefited from regional conflict and controversy, because instability made fossil fuels easier to manipulate. The United States is now described as “transitioning” to a new approach. The article does not specify the exact policies, military commitments, or timetable involved. Still, Barrack’s remarks point toward greater regional responsibility and less direct American control, with possible effects on alliances, conflicts, and energy politics.

01

What change in the United States’ role in the Middle East did Tom Barrack describe?

The core change is a retreat from America’s traditional role as the region’s main protector. Barrack said the United States no longer wants to act as the world’s guarantor or “own” the Middle East. This matters because Washington’s security commitments have shaped regional politics for decades.

The older approach linked American protection of the Arabian Gulf to access and influence around oil. Barrack said that arrangement is no longer the goal. He also argued that earlier Western influence benefited from regional conflict and controversy, because instability made fossil fuels easier to manipulate.

The United States is now described as “transitioning” to a new approach. The article does not specify the exact policies, military commitments, or timetable involved. Still, Barrack’s remarks point toward greater regional responsibility and less direct American control, with possible effects on alliances, conflicts, and energy politics.

02

What was the US–Arabian Gulf “grand bargain” of providing security in exchange for oil?

The phrase describes a long-standing strategic understanding between the United States and Arabian Gulf states. In simple terms, Washington provided military protection and political backing, while Gulf energy supplies and regional stability served important American interests. The article presents this as a former arrangement, not a continuing promise.

Its key mechanism was security for energy. The United States helped guarantee the Gulf’s safety, while oil made the region strategically valuable to Washington. Barrack said America once benefited from regional conflict and controversy because Western powers could manipulate fossil fuels more easily when the region was “off-base.”

The arrangement now appears to be changing. Barrack said the United States no longer wants to own the region and is moving toward a new approach. The article does not define the replacement model, so its precise effects on protection, oil policy, and regional partnerships remain unspecified.

03

Which countries make up the Arabian Gulf region, and why has the area been strategically important to the United States?

In common political usage, the Arabian Gulf often means the six Arab Gulf Cooperation Council states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Geographically, the wider Gulf also includes Iran and Iraq along its shores. This distinction matters because “Arabian Gulf region” can mean either the Arab states or the broader waterway.

The region has been strategically important because it contains major oil and gas resources and sits beside key sea routes. Those facts come from established background knowledge; the article itself focuses on fossil fuels and Western influence. Its “grand bargain” describes US security support connected to the Gulf’s energy importance.

Barrack said Washington no longer wants to own the region. That suggests a possible shift in how the United States manages energy security and partnerships. The article does not identify which Gulf countries would receive less protection or how they would respond.

04

How large and long-lasting has the US security role in the Middle East been—especially during the roughly 80 years mentioned by Barrack?

Barrack referred to America as the guarantor to the world “for the last 80 years.” That indicates a long-lasting security role spanning roughly eight decades. The article does not provide troop totals, base counts, spending figures, or a complete list of American operations, so its exact scale cannot be calculated from the source.

The role mattered because Washington connected security protection with the Arabian Gulf’s oil importance. In the article’s description, the United States acted as a broad guarantor rather than simply pursuing one short-term mission. That helped make American power a central part of the region’s political and strategic order.

Barrack now says that guarantor role “is no longer there.” The stated reality is a transition, not a detailed withdrawal plan. Its forward meaning is therefore uncertain: responsibility may become more regional, but the article does not say how quickly or through which institutions.

05

What could happen to regional security, conflicts, and energy markets if the US reduces its role as the region’s main guarantor?

If the United States reduces its security role, regional governments may have to provide more protection themselves. That could encourage stronger local cooperation, but it could also increase rivalry if countries disagree over who should lead. These are possible consequences, not forecasts made in the article.

The main mechanism would be a change in the security guarantee supporting the Gulf. If that guarantee appears weaker, governments, markets, and outside powers may reassess risks around conflict and energy supplies. Barrack’s comments connect this directly to fossil fuels, which he said Western powers had previously manipulated through regional influence.

The current reality is only that Washington is “transitioning” and no longer wants to “own” the region. The article gives no timetable or replacement plan. Energy prices, production, and shipping could therefore become more sensitive to political developments, but their direction cannot be established from the source alone.

06

What other countries or regional powers could take on more responsibility if the United States no longer wants to dominate Middle Eastern security?

If Washington steps back, responsibility could shift toward powerful regional states and outside actors. Likely candidates include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and the other Gulf monarchies, while China and Russia could also seek greater influence. These possibilities draw on established geopolitical knowledge, not specific choices stated in the article.

The mechanism would be a redistribution of security power. Governments might expand their own military capabilities, form new partnerships, or compete to shape conflicts and energy routes. Turkey is especially relevant to the source because Barrack is its US ambassador, but the article does not present Turkey as a replacement guarantor.

The source only establishes that the United States no longer wants to dominate or “own” the region. It does not name an alternative country, alliance, or institution. Any future arrangement could therefore be shared, competitive, or unstable rather than a simple handover from Washington to one new leader.

07

How did oil, colonial borders drawn after World War I, and great-power competition shape the modern political order of the Middle East?

Oil made the Middle East central to global power because outside states wanted secure energy access. After World War I, European colonial powers partitioned the region and drew borders that influenced its modern political order. Barrack has condemned that partitioning, although the article does not list specific borders or agreements.

The key mechanism was the combination of territory, resources, and outside influence. Colonial decisions shaped political units, while great powers competed for strategic access and leverage. Barrack said conflict and controversy favored the West because a destabilized region made fossil fuels easier to manipulate for Western benefit.

This history helps explain the older US role described in the article. American security guarantees became linked to the Gulf and its energy importance over roughly 80 years. Barrack now says that model is ending, but the source does not explain how its historical effects will be addressed or what political order will replace it.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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