Why Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez Could Lose His Job

Spain is holding a snap election because Congress rejected housing decrees proposed by Pedro Sánchez’s government. The defeat showed that his government could not secure enough parliamentary support for an important package. Sánchez responded by calling voters to the polls on Sunday 29 November. The election therefore tests both his leadership and the strength of his Socialist party.

Voters elect members of Congress, not the prime minister directly. After the election, Congress holds an investiture vote to decide who can lead the government. A candidate needs sufficient backing from lawmakers. If Sánchez cannot win that support, another candidate could be nominated instead. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the conservative People’s Party, is the prediction-market favourite.

The result is not yet the same as a change of government. Parties may need to negotiate after the vote, especially if no one controls enough seats alone. Prediction markets on 21 October gave Feijóo an 82.5% chance of becoming prime minister, compared with 14.4% for Sánchez. The election’s outcome will determine who seeks Congress’s approval.

An investiture vote is the parliamentary vote in which Spain’s Congress elects the prime minister. It is the step that turns an election result into a government. Spanish voters choose lawmakers, but they do not directly select the prime minister in a separate nationwide presidential contest. The candidate must therefore demonstrate support inside Congress.

The mechanism matters when several parties share power. A party can win the most seats without controlling Congress by itself. Its candidate may then need another party’s votes or an agreement to govern. The People’s Party is led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, while Vox and Junts are among the other parties named in the guide. Their support could affect who passes investiture.

After the 29 November election, Congress will determine whether Sánchez, Feijóo or another candidate can command enough backing. If the leading party lacks that support, negotiations follow. The article identifies Feijóo as the prediction-market favourite, but that expectation does not replace the formal investiture vote.

The cases are serious because they involve alleged or proven corruption around senior figures connected to Sánchez’s party, government and family. The article describes different legal stages, so they should not be treated as identical. Some people have been convicted, others are under investigation, and another faces a jury trial. Sánchez has not been named as a suspect in any case.

Former transport minister José Luis Ábalos received 24 years and three months in prison for a mask-contract kickback scheme during the Covid-19 pandemic. His adviser Koldo García received 19 years and eight months. The convictions included criminal organisation, bribery, influence peddling and embezzlement. Ábalos has sought to annul the verdict and can appeal to the Constitutional Court.

Other cases widen the political damage. Santos Cerdán is under investigation, Begoña Gómez faces a jury trial, and David Sánchez is appealing a conviction that is not final. Former attorney general Álvaro García Ortiz was convicted and resigned. The number and proximity of these cases keep legal scrutiny at the centre of the election.

A prime minister can suffer politically from scandals involving close associates without being a legal suspect. Voters may question how trusted officials behaved, whether warning signs were missed and whether the leader’s party maintained proper controls. Courts decide criminal responsibility, but elections also measure confidence, credibility and judgment. That makes proximity politically important even when it does not establish guilt.

The article links Sánchez to several high-profile cases. His former minister José Luis Ábalos received a 24-year-and-three-month sentence over mask-contract kickbacks. His wife, Begoña Gómez, was sent to a jury trial. His brother, David Sánchez, was convicted and is appealing. Santos Cerdán, another former party official, remains under investigation. These cases create a pattern that opponents can use against the government.

Sánchez told Congress on 24 June that he had neither known of nor tolerated the practices described. No court has named him as a suspect. Even so, the concentration of cases around people close to him could affect voters’ trust and make it harder for him to win an investiture vote.

Spain’s next government could be led by the centre-left Socialists, the conservative People’s Party or a wider alliance involving smaller parties. The main named players are Sánchez’s PSOE, Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s PP, Vox under Santiago Abascal and Junts, a Catalan party that once kept Sánchez in power. The election decides Congress’s membership, not the government automatically.

The key mechanism is investiture. Congress must approve a candidate for prime minister. If the People’s Party wins the most seats but falls short of enough support, Feijóo would need votes or cooperation from Vox or other parties. Vox is national-conservative and tough on migration. Junts wants Catalan independence and has previously supported Sánchez. These differences make negotiations significant.

Prediction markets on 21 October gave Feijóo an 82.5% chance of becoming prime minister, compared with 14.4% for Sánchez. Those prices show expectations, not a guaranteed result. The final government will depend on the seats won and the agreements parties can reach during the investiture process.

A change of government would matter beyond Spain because the country is the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy, a NATO ally and the second-largest foreign investor in Latin America after the United States. A new prime minister could therefore change the tone and priorities of Spanish diplomacy, migration policy and economic engagement. The article presents these as major stakes, not as settled campaign promises.

Spain already has a complicated relationship with Washington in the article’s account. It refused US use of its bases for strikes on Iran. The party landscape also signals a migration divide: Vox is described as a national-conservative party tough on migration. Investment links give Madrid an important economic role in Latin America, alongside possible effects on visas and trade mentioned in the coverage list.

The election will choose which political forces control the government and then seek Congress’s investiture. That could alter Spain’s approach to NATO, Washington, migration and Latin American investment. However, the supplied article does not detail each party’s proposed policy, so the precise changes cannot be determined from it.

Spain’s system is parliamentary: the election fills Congress, and Congress then decides which candidate can form the government. The prime minister must win an investiture vote. This links executive power to legislative support. A party can lead the election but still need partners before its candidate can take office. The article identifies this vote as the process in which Congress elects the prime minister.

A presidential system works differently in its basic structure. Voters normally choose a president in a separate executive election, while they also elect a legislature. The president does not usually depend on a legislative investiture vote to become president. The legislature can still influence laws and budgets, but choosing the executive follows a separate electoral route.

That distinction explains why Spain’s 29 November result may not immediately name the government. Seats will be distributed among PSOE, PP, Vox, Junts and other parties. The candidate who can secure enough congressional backing will lead. Prediction markets favour Feijóo, but only the post-election investiture process can establish who becomes prime minister.