Millions of Afghans to face food insecurity by next year, UN warns

Acute food insecurity is a severe, immediate lack of reliable access to enough nutritious food. People may be eating less, skipping meals, selling assets, or facing hunger that threatens health and livelihoods. A temporary shortage can be brief and limited. Acute insecurity is more serious because families have exhausted ordinary ways to cope and may need urgent assistance.

Afghanistan illustrates the difference. Between September and October, 15.9 million people faced crisis-level food insecurity or worse. That included 3.4 million people in emergency conditions. During winter, 5 million are expected to face emergency hunger, described as one step away from famine.

The problem is not only whether food exists in markets or fields. Families must also afford and reach it, while keeping access stable through conflict, drought, economic hardship, and disasters. Food aid can prevent immediate deaths, but lasting improvement requires income, functioning services, and stronger livelihoods.

Between September and October, 15.9 million people in Afghanistan were facing food insecurity at crisis levels or worse. That is nearly one in three Afghans. The total included 3.4 million people already experiencing emergency conditions, showing that the current crisis contains a large group facing very severe hunger.

The United Nations humanitarian agency OCHA projects deterioration from November through April. During those winter months, 19.2 million people are expected to face acute food insecurity. Within that total, 5 million are expected to experience emergency-level hunger. OCHA describes this as one step away from famine.

The projected increase means 3.3 million more people could face acute food insecurity than in September and October. The UN says action is needed before winter, including food assistance, livestock protection, farmer support, and continued health, nutrition, and water services.

Food insecurity can worsen even after agricultural production improves because one harvest does not erase accumulated damage. OCHA said better rainfall and agricultural production helped improve food stocks this year. However, the agency also warned that this cannot undo several years of drought. Many families remain too poor or weakened to recover fully.

The winter period from November to April brings a harder outlook. Families may need to rely on stored food while facing fewer livelihood options and continuing economic hardship. Funding cuts have also closed or suspended about one third of nutrition sites. Natural disasters and the forced return of millions from Iran and Pakistan since 2023 have added pressure.

As a result, projected acute food insecurity rises to 19.2 million people, including 5 million facing emergency hunger. The UN urges action before winter, including food, livestock protection, farmer support, and accessible health, nutrition, and water services.

When families cannot afford nutritious food, children may not receive the diet needed for healthy growth and survival. The article links child hunger to parents’ inability to pay for nutritious food and to coping capacity weakened by conflict, economic hardship, drought, and other shocks. Treatment becomes essential when malnutrition develops.

OCHA expects more than 4 million babies and children under six to need treatment for malnutrition next year. Over 1 million are expected to suffer severe acute malnutrition. Yet around one third of nutrition sites have closed or suspended services, largely because of funding cuts. Children may therefore face both inadequate food and reduced access to care.

The agency warns that consequences could be irreversible once nutrition services disappear, particularly for children. Families also become less able to cope as shocks accumulate. Early food, health, nutrition, and water support can protect lives, but delays risk allowing severe hunger and malnutrition to worsen.

International aid declined after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. The Taliban government imposed a severe version of Islamic law, including rules limiting women’s access to education and public life. The international community has criticised these repressive measures, and the government remains largely excluded from it. That political isolation has accompanied a sharp reduction in aid.

The funding gap is visible in basic services. By late August, the UN had received less than 30 percent of the money needed to provide life-saving assistance. Around one third of nutrition sites across Afghanistan had closed or suspended services, largely because of funding cuts. Those closures reduce support while hunger and malnutrition are increasing.

The decline leaves humanitarian agencies unable to meet the full scale of need. The article also notes that natural disasters and the forced return of millions from Iran and Pakistan since 2023 have worsened the crisis. Reduced aid therefore reaches families during a period of growing pressure.

Food assistance addresses the immediate shortage of calories and nutrients. It can prevent hunger from becoming fatal and help families survive a crisis. But aid cannot permanently replace the systems that let people secure food for themselves. OCHA’s spokeswoman said humanitarian aid could save lives but could not compensate indefinitely for missing economic opportunity and public services.

Families need help protecting livestock and other productive assets, supporting farmers before planting windows close, and keeping health, nutrition, and water services accessible. These measures protect both present survival and future food production. They matter especially after drought, conflict, economic hardship, natural disasters, and forced returns have weakened household coping capacity.

Afghanistan’s projected winter hunger shows why both forms of support are needed. Food assistance is urgent before November to April, when 19.2 million people may face acute food insecurity. Over time, better public services, livelihoods, and agricultural support are needed so families are not dependent on emergency aid indefinitely.

The basic causes of food insecurity can be understood through three connected conditions. Food must be available through production, stocks, markets, or assistance. People must also be able to afford and physically reach it. Finally, access must remain stable over time rather than collapsing after conflict, drought, disasters, or economic shocks.

Afghanistan demonstrates the difference between availability and access. Better rainfall and agricultural production improved food stocks this year. Yet families still faced crisis-level hunger because many could not afford nutritious food, and years of drought had weakened their ability to cope. Food may exist without being affordable or reachable for everyone.

Stability is also under pressure. Aid cuts have closed or suspended around one third of nutrition sites, while natural disasters and forced returns have increased needs. The winter projection of 19.2 million people facing acute food insecurity shows that one improved harvest cannot secure lasting access without services, livelihoods, and continued support.