UN warns El Nino could be strongest on record as it urges world to prepare

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern. Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. This matters because the Pacific is closely linked to the atmosphere above it and to weather patterns far beyond the region.

The extra warmth changes how air rises and moves over the ocean. It shifts winds, air pressure, and rainfall around the world. The article connects this process with extreme heat, drought, flooding, and broader humanitarian risks, although it does not detail every atmospheric step.

El Nino usually returns every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months. The current event could become exceptionally strong, with Pacific sea-surface temperatures possibly reaching 3.8°C above average between November and January. Its effects could spread through weather systems, economies, conflict, displacement, and migration.

The current El Nino could become stronger than any event measured in modern records. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it could be “unprecedented in strength” and literally beyond the monitoring charts used during the past four decades. That makes its possible reach especially alarming.

The WMO expects tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climb as high as 3.8°C above average between November and January. The article says this would be far beyond what is normally seen during an El Nino. It does not provide a precise comparison with any named past event, so the exact ranking remains unstated.

The possible intensity matters because stronger ocean warming can produce wider weather effects. The agency expects higher temperatures across much of the globe, on top of human-caused warming. Officials therefore urge governments to act before extreme conditions create larger humanitarian and economic damage.

The United Nations is pushing governments and financial institutions to act before disasters occur. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher issued a joint call for urgent, coordinated anticipatory action. Fletcher also urged development banks and international financial institutions to release funding early.

Fletcher said he had already released $50 million for 11 of the most exposed countries. They include Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan. The money is intended to support early resilience and preparedness, rather than wait until people and infrastructure have already suffered damage.

The reason is the scale of the expected threat. Fletcher warned of extreme heat, drought, flooding, economic shocks, conflict, displacement, and migration. He said the humanitarian system cannot cope alone. Early funding gives governments and aid agencies a chance to reduce those consequences before they become more severe.

El Nino changes winds, air pressure, and rainfall across the world. That can disrupt normal weather patterns and produce dangerous extremes in different places. The article highlights three major risks: extreme heat, drought, and flooding. Their locations and timing can differ, but their effects can spread well beyond the Pacific.

The agency expects the event to raise temperatures across much of the globe. At the same time, altered rainfall can worsen dry conditions in some areas and bring flooding in others. The article does not assign specific hazards to specific countries, but it identifies Chad, Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and El Salvador among the most exposed.

These hazards matter because they can damage livelihoods and economies. Fletcher warned of massive humanitarian consequences, including food and other pressures that can contribute to conflict, displacement, and migration. He said the impacts would not remain only in countries directly facing the event.

El Nino’s peak is not necessarily the end of its effects. The WMO says the current event will peak toward the end of 2026, while its impacts will be felt long after that. This matters because communities may still face disrupted weather, damaged livelihoods, and humanitarian needs after the strongest ocean temperatures pass.

The article does not explain the detailed physical mechanism behind the delay. In general, ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall patterns can take time to return to normal after a major climate pattern reaches its maximum. That can extend heat, drought, or flooding risks beyond the peak period.

The delayed consequences also affect planning. Governments and aid agencies may need support both before the peak and during recovery afterward. Fletcher warned that economic shocks, conflict, displacement, and migration could follow. Early action is therefore important even when the most intense phase has not yet arrived.

Anticipatory action means preparing before a forecast threat becomes a disaster. The UN says governments can prevent many of El Nino’s worst human consequences even though they cannot stop the climate pattern itself. Early funding can support resilience while there is still time to act.

For example, exposed countries can use resources to prepare communities, aid systems, and essential services before extreme heat, drought, or flooding arrives. The article does not list specific projects, so the exact measures are not stated. The key mechanism is timing: action before damage is usually more useful than aid released afterward.

This approach can reduce humanitarian pressure and limit wider disruption. Better preparation can help prevent deaths, displacement, food shortages, and economic losses, although the article does not quantify those reductions. Fletcher urged governments, development banks, and financial institutions to invest in resilience instead of waiting for disaster.

El Nino is a natural climate pattern, not the same thing as long-term human-caused global warming. It temporarily changes Pacific Ocean temperatures and reshapes winds, air pressure, and rainfall. Human-caused warming raises the background temperature over time, creating two overlapping influences on climate.

The article says the current El Nino will push temperatures higher across much of the globe, adding to warming already driven by human-caused climate change. In practical terms, a natural warm phase can intensify heat during an already warmer period. The article does not quantify how much of any specific temperature change comes from each influence.

This interaction increases concern about impacts. A very strong El Nino could bring extreme heat, drought, and flooding while communities are already facing a warmer climate. That is why UN officials are calling for early, coordinated action and resilience investment before humanitarian and economic damage grows.