Israel’s fault lines: inside the 23 October Guardian Weekly

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. It is the national lawmaking body, where elected representatives debate legislation, approve policies and help determine who governs. The balance of seats matters because Israel’s government depends on parliamentary support rather than on one directly elected national executive.

After an election, parties negotiate to assemble a governing coalition that can command enough support in the Knesset. A party may win the most seats without governing alone. Smaller parties can therefore gain major influence by joining a coalition or withholding their support.

The coming election is expected to produce a more rightwing Knesset. That could strengthen rightwing parties inside the government and affect debates over security, democracy and Palestinian rights. The result will also show how voters judge Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition after the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023.

National elections are the main way Israeli voters can evaluate the prime minister, coalition parties and their record. The timing matters because the previous election took place in 2022, before the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. No national vote has since offered voters a formal chance to approve or reject the governing coalition.

The election therefore connects directly to a major national trauma and its aftermath. Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition have governed during the period following the attacks. The vote gives citizens a way to express their judgment on the prime minister’s leadership, the coalition’s decisions and the country’s direction.

The outcome is uncertain in one respect but not another. Netanyahu may or may not remain in power, while a more rightwing Knesset is expected. Analysts also debate whether only a clear opposition victory could help Israel heal, strengthen democracy and establish Palestinian rights.

The new electorate is large enough to matter. More than half a million Israelis have reached voting age since the last election in 2022. These voters can influence the result, especially if their participation differs from that of older age groups.

Their reported political outlook is striking. According to polls cited in the article, three-quarters of first-time Jewish voters define themselves as right or centre-right. That does not guarantee how they will vote, but it suggests that many new Jewish voters enter national politics with views that may favour rightwing parties.

This demographic shift helps explain why analysts expect a more rightwing Knesset. It could affect Netanyahu’s ability to remain prime minister, the strength of opposition parties and the policies of any future coalition. The result will depend not only on identity, but also on turnout, party choices and coalition negotiations.

Gadi Eisenkot is an opposition candidate and former general. His public background gives him a profile rooted in military service rather than in Netanyahu’s long experience as a national political leader. The article presents him as an important figure in the contest over Israel’s future government.

The contrast is not only professional. Peter Beaumont writes that Eisenkot differs from Benjamin Netanyahu in style and character. That suggests a distinction in temperament and public presentation, though the article does not define every element of the comparison. Eisenkot is not presented as a complete policy alternative on every issue.

His position also contains a deliberate uncertainty. On key policy points, he retains what Beaumont calls a studied ambiguity. That may give him room to appeal to different voters, but it can also leave major questions unanswered. His candidacy therefore combines a sharp personal contrast with Netanyahu and less sharply defined policy commitments.

A more rightwing Knesset would change the parliamentary balance. Parties further to the right could win more seats and gain greater leverage when a governing coalition is assembled. Benjamin Netanyahu could remain in office if he can build a supportive coalition, but the article makes clear that his survival is not guaranteed.

The mechanism is parliamentary power. Coalition leaders need enough support in the Knesset to govern. If rightwing parties hold more seats, they can demand influence over the coalition’s priorities. Their strength could shape national debates on security, democratic institutions and the status of Palestinian rights.

The expected result therefore matters beyond the identity of the prime minister. Dahlia Scheindlin argues that Israel needs to rethink itself after three disastrous years. She says only a clear opposition victory would allow the country to begin healing, strengthen democracy and establish Palestinian rights. A rightward result could make those aims harder to pursue.

Israel’s current fault lines reflect pressure from security shocks, political conflict and unstable coalition politics. The source does not provide a full history of those wars or crises, so it cannot support a detailed timeline. It does, however, place the election after the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and after what Dahlia Scheindlin calls three disastrous years.

Coalition government adds another layer. Israel’s governing parties must maintain parliamentary support, so disagreements among coalition partners can shape policy and threaten stability. The article also describes a deep argument about the country’s future, including democracy, Palestinian rights and the possibility of national healing.

These pressures help explain why the election carries unusual weight. Voters are judging Netanyahu and his coalition for the first time since the attacks, while polls point to a more rightwing Knesset. The next government could either reinforce existing divisions or, if the opposition wins clearly, begin the rethinking Scheindlin calls for.

Israel uses a parliamentary model in which voters elect a national legislature, the Knesset, and governments depend on support inside it. This allows parties with different ideologies to negotiate a shared governing coalition. The arrangement matters because no single party necessarily controls enough seats to govern independently.

The key mechanism is coalition bargaining. Parties compare their priorities, agree on a governing programme and distribute influence among coalition partners. A smaller party may join a larger bloc and help it secure the parliamentary support needed to govern. In exchange, it can seek policy commitments or positions in government.

This system makes election results more complicated than simply identifying the party with the most votes. Netanyahu’s future depends on whether he can assemble a supportive coalition, while an opposition victory would need to produce a clear alternative. A more rightwing Knesset could therefore shift policy even if the prime minister changes.