Monsoon's gone, El Nino isn't: Why India's weather worries are far from over

India’s recent southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 13 per cent below average, making the next season a concern. El Niño is strengthening, and it can alter circulation that supports the monsoon. That matters because less rain can increase pressure on farming and water resources.

The deficits were uneven. Eastern and northeastern India had 26 per cent less rainfall, described as an exceptional drought, while southern states were 24 per cent below average. Central India was near normal. These figures show why one national rainfall number does not capture every region’s risk.

The remaining concerns include a warmer winter, changed rainfall and further agricultural stress. WMO projections point to normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across much of South Asia in October–December 2026. January and February remain dependent on evolving patterns, including western disturbances.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is not an isolated event. It is the warm phase of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a natural climate pattern.

ENSO affects atmospheric circulation, wind systems and rainfall distribution across the world. When the Pacific warms in this way, the atmosphere responds, shifting weather patterns far beyond the ocean. That is why a change in Pacific temperatures can influence India’s monsoon, tropical storms and rainfall in other continents.

For India, El Niño is closely watched because it is generally linked with a higher risk of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall. The article reports that India already experienced deficient monsoon rainfall while El Niño was strengthening. Its future effects will depend on how the wider climate pattern evolves.

Rainfall losses were particularly severe in two parts of India during the recent monsoon. Eastern and northeastern India received 26 per cent less rain than average. Southern states recorded a 24 per cent deficit. These regional figures reveal a sharper problem than the national shortfall alone suggests.

The article describes the eastern and northeastern deficit as an exceptional drought. By comparison, central India received near-normal rainfall. The uneven pattern matters because communities, farms and water supplies in different regions faced different levels of stress, even during the same monsoon season.

These deficits also form the background to concern about a strengthening El Niño. El Niño is generally associated with a higher risk of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall. Further changes in rainfall or temperature could therefore add to agricultural pressure, although actual conditions will depend on evolving weather patterns.

A stronger El Niño could affect India through warmer temperatures and altered rainfall. It may contribute to warmer-than-normal conditions in parts of the country after a monsoon that was already 13 per cent below average. This matters because farms and water systems have less room to absorb another period of stress.

The WMO, citing the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, projected normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across much of South Asia during October–December 2026. Higher temperatures could increase pressure on water resources. If heat arrives during wheat’s grain-filling stage, yields could also suffer.

The outcome is not fixed. Rainfall and temperatures will depend on evolving climate patterns, including western disturbances. January and February could therefore bring different conditions from those projected for October–December. The key concern is that heat, rainfall changes and the earlier monsoon deficit may combine to challenge agriculture.

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific becomes unusually warm during El Niño. That warming changes atmospheric circulation and wind systems across a large area. Because India’s southwest monsoon depends on broader circulation patterns, the Pacific shift can weaken conditions that normally support it.

The key mechanism is a change in the atmosphere’s movement and rainfall distribution. With the supporting circulation weakened, India faces a greater possibility of prolonged dry spells and rainfall shortages. The article links this risk to the deficient monsoon already recorded, though regional outcomes can differ.

This matters beyond rainfall totals. Less monsoon rain can increase pressure on agriculture and water resources. Eastern and northeastern India recorded a 26 per cent deficit, while southern states were 24 per cent below average. A strengthening El Niño could keep attention focused on whether rainfall problems deepen or temperatures rise in the months ahead.

A warmer winter could threaten wheat because the crop may be exposed to heat during its grain-filling stage. That stage is important for yield, so unusually high temperatures at the wrong time could reduce production. The article presents this as a risk, not a certain outcome.

The timing of the heat matters. The WMO projected normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across much of South Asia during October–December 2026. However, January and February could develop differently. Western disturbances are among the climate patterns that may influence conditions during those later winter months.

This means India’s wheat outlook cannot be decided from the early winter projection alone. Actual weather will determine the impact. A strengthening El Niño could contribute to warmer conditions, but the eventual effect on wheat, rainfall and agriculture will depend on how temperatures and western disturbances evolve.

El Niño changes atmospheric circulation, winds and rainfall distribution around the world. These shifts interact with regional weather systems, so the same climate event can produce opposite outcomes in different places. Some regions become hotter and drier, while others receive heavier rain and face flooding.

The article gives several examples. Indonesia has experienced hotter, drier conditions linked to wildfire and drought risks. Parts of East Africa could receive heavier rainfall and flooding, while other areas still face drought concerns. In South America, drier conditions are possible in parts of the Amazon, while some southern areas may become wetter.

Storm activity also changes by basin. The eastern Pacific has seen heightened hurricane activity. Stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic have suppressed hurricane development. These contrasts show that El Niño does not create one uniform global weather pattern; it redistributes risks according to location and atmospheric conditions.