El Niño ‘wrecking ball’ could cause record Pacific temperature rise, UN says

El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. It begins with unusual warming in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Because the Pacific is vast, this warming can alter rainfall and weather patterns across distant regions. It matters because its effects can reach food, water, health, and emergency services.

The pattern tends to raise global temperatures and disrupt rainfall. The article links it to flooding risks in southern Africa, warmer and drier conditions in Southeast Asia, and increased rainfall in Latin America. These changes happen as the warmer ocean influences air movement and where heat and moisture gather.

This event is expected to become extremely strong. The WMO warned that extreme heat, droughts, and floods could create major humanitarian consequences. The article says about 50 million people could face increased hunger, while governments are urged to prepare housing, water, sanitation, and health services.

The central Pacific is forecast to reach about 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal between November and January. That is an unusually large departure from typical temperatures. The predicted warming is important because the Pacific Ocean strongly influences weather patterns across many parts of the world.

The WMO outlook says the event will likely peak around December. Warmer ocean water can change the movement of air and moisture, shifting rainfall and heat across regions. The article connects this pattern with possible floods, droughts, extreme heat, and pressure on essential services.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said records had not previously shown 3.8 degrees Celsius. Earlier strong El Niños had reached around 3 degrees Celsius, with major global impacts. This forecast therefore signals a need for urgent preparation, especially in areas vulnerable to flooding, water shortages, crop losses, and hunger.

This El Niño is expected to be unusually strong because the central Pacific could warm about 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal. The WMO says that figure would exceed earlier records. Stronger ocean warming generally means a greater chance of widespread disruptions to temperature and rainfall patterns.

Celeste Saulo, the WMO secretary-general, said records had shown around 3 degrees Celsius during some previous major El Niños. Those events already produced substantial impacts across the world. The new prediction therefore stands beyond the level previously seen in the WMO’s records.

The forecast is not simply about a number. The event could bring extreme heat, droughts, and floods across Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific. The WMO and UN humanitarian officials called for urgent preparation because stronger impacts could increase hunger and strain housing, water, sanitation, and health services.

The event could produce sharply different hazards around the world. The article warns of floods in southern Africa, drought and extreme heat in parts of Asia, and increased rainfall in Latin America. These effects matter because they can damage homes, reduce harvests, limit water supplies, and increase health risks.

In southern Africa, flooding risks could rise from November. In Southeast Asia, warmer conditions and less rainfall could harm agriculture and water supplies. The WMO also warns that El Niño-linked extremes could worsen pressure on housing, water, sanitation, and health services. The same climate pattern can therefore create too much water in one region and too little in another.

UN officials describe the possible humanitarian consequences as massive. Tom Fletcher warned of extreme heat, droughts, and floods across several continents. About 50 million people could face increased hunger, making early preparation and emergency planning especially urgent.

El Niño is a Pacific Ocean climate pattern that disrupts rainfall across large regions. Its warming phase changes how heat and moisture move through the atmosphere. That redistribution can increase rain in some places while suppressing it elsewhere, creating very different risks at the same time.

The WMO expects flooding risks to rise in southern Africa from November. In Southeast Asia, warmer conditions and a lack of rainfall could threaten agriculture and water supplies. These contrasting outcomes reflect how the same large-scale climate pattern affects regional weather differently. One region may receive excessive rain, while another faces drying and heat.

The consequences could extend beyond weather itself. Flooding may put pressure on housing, sanitation, and health services. Drier conditions may reduce water availability and damage crops. The WMO and UN officials urged urgent preparation because these regional effects could worsen food insecurity and humanitarian needs.

UN humanitarian officials estimate that some 50 million people could face increased hunger during the event. That risk comes from the way El Niño can disturb rainfall, heat, agriculture, and water supplies. Food production may suffer where drought or extreme heat reduces crops, while floods can damage homes, farmland, and infrastructure.

The WMO specifically warns that flooding and other weather extremes could worsen pressure on housing, water, sanitation, and health services. Southern Africa could face higher flood risks. Southeast Asia could experience warmer conditions and less rainfall, threatening agriculture and water supplies. Latin America could see increased rainfall.

These problems can reinforce one another. Damaged housing and sanitation can increase health risks. Water shortages can affect farming and drinking supplies. The WMO and UN Under-Secretary-General Tom Fletcher called for urgent action to prepare, because the expected event could have massive humanitarian consequences.

El Niño starts with unusual warming in the Pacific, but its effects spread through the atmosphere. The warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the air above it. That changes air movement and rainfall patterns, shifting where clouds form and where dry conditions persist. This is why a Pacific event can influence weather far away.

The article gives contrasting examples. Southern Africa could face more flooding, while Southeast Asia could become warmer and receive less rain. Latin America could see increased rainfall. The key mechanism is a large-scale redistribution of heat and moisture, which changes regional patterns rather than affecting every place equally.

The article does not describe the detailed atmospheric circulation. It does establish that El Niño influences weather around the world and disrupts rainfall across large regions. The expected strength raises concern because these shifts could produce extreme heat, droughts, floods, crop losses, water stress, and increased hunger.