Young Americans are losing faith in the future — and Trump

The Harvard Youth Poll is a recurring survey of Americans ages 18 to 29. It measures how young adults view politics, the economy, elections, financial security and the country's future. Its results show both what young people believe and how likely they are to participate in elections.

The fall 2026 poll surveyed 2,024 people through a probability-based sample. It asked about President Trump's performance, congressional parties, voting motivations and threats to long-term financial security. It also measured whether respondents expect to be better or worse off than their parents.

The poll matters because young adults are a major group of potential voters, yet turnout intentions are changing. Only about one in three respondents said they would definitely vote. The survey also found deep economic anxiety, with fear about America's future outweighing hope by more than two to one.

The poll found that 63% of young respondents say their votes for the U.S. House or Senate will be cast in opposition to President Trump. By comparison, 14% say they are motivated by support for him, while 17% say he is not a factor.

That strong opposition does not translate into equally strong turnout plans. Only about one in three Americans ages 18 to 29 say they will definitely vote in the upcoming congressional midterm elections. This compares with 40% who said so in 2022.

The decline is concentrated among young Republicans. Their definite-voting share dropped from 46% to 34%. Fifty percent of young Democrats say they will definitely vote, essentially unchanged, while independents fell from 26% to 22%. The figures show strong anti-Trump motivation alongside limited participation overall.

When only 9% of respondents say the country is headed in the right direction, optimism is extremely limited. The figure means that most young adults surveyed see the United States as moving in the wrong direction or are not confident enough to endorse its current path.

The result fits with other findings in the poll. Sixty-nine percent say they feel more fearful than hopeful about America's future. Seventy-seven percent disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, and two-thirds disapprove of congressional Democrats while 74% disapprove of congressional Republicans.

The immediate implication is a generation with little confidence in national leadership or economic direction. The 9% result is the lowest in the poll's history, so it marks an unusually severe level of dissatisfaction. It may shape voting motivation, but the poll does not predict specific election outcomes.

Young adults identify rising prices and the cost of living as the largest threat to their long-term financial security. Seventy-nine percent call it a serious threat. The concern is not abstract: nearly half say their household is struggling to make ends meet or has only limited financial security.

Two other threats tie for second place. Sixty-eight percent identify the power of large corporations, and another 68% identify trade wars. These concerns point to worries about both everyday expenses and larger economic forces that young people believe could limit their future choices.

The findings help explain the poll's broader economic pessimism. For the first time in the survey's history, slightly more respondents expect to be worse off than their parents than better off. The poll also found strong support for economic-populist ideas, including Medicare for All and a wealth tax.

When young voters strongly oppose one leader or party, they can create substantial electoral energy. But elections are decided by people who actually cast ballots, not by people who only express a preference. A large gap between motivation and turnout can therefore reduce a group's practical influence.

This poll shows that gap clearly. Sixty-three percent say their votes will oppose President Trump, yet only about one in three young adults say they will definitely vote. Young independents are especially unlikely to commit, at 22%, while Republican definite-voting intentions fell to 34%.

In general, low turnout among a strongly motivated group can make election results less reflective of that group's stated views. It can also increase the relative influence of voters who do participate. The poll does not forecast who will win, but it shows that turnout will determine how much anti-Trump sentiment matters at the ballot box.

The belief in upward mobility has fallen sharply. In 2003, when Harvard asked only college students, 74% believed they would be better off than their parents. In the recent poll, just 28% believed that, while 27% expected to be worse off. The two recent figures were within the margin of error.

The article does not identify one definitive reason for the decline. It does show a difficult economic mood: 79% cite rising prices and living costs as a serious threat, nearly half report limited financial security, and only 9% think the country is headed in the right direction. These findings provide context, not proof of causation.

The longer trend is still striking. In fall 2021, 39% expected to be better off and 17% expected to be worse off. The shift suggests that confidence in economic progress and the promise of hard work has weakened substantially among young adults.

Hard work leads to a secure life only when earnings can cover essential costs and leave room to build stability. Rising prices can reduce that room. If wages do not keep pace, housing, debt payments and daily expenses consume more income, making saving and planning harder. The article does not provide specific wage, housing or debt figures.

The poll does show the pressure young adults feel. Seventy-nine percent identify rising prices and the cost of living as serious threats to long-term financial security. Nearly half say their households are struggling to make ends meet or getting by with limited security. Those conditions can make economic opportunity feel less reachable.

That helps explain the broader concern about upward mobility. Only 28% believe they will be better off than their parents, and 69% feel fearful about America's future. John Della Volpe described the central question as whether hard work still leads to a secure life.