Quad confirmed, Manila envoy signals likely ‘Squad’ talks before Trump-Xi summit

The “Squad” and the Quad are overlapping, informal security groupings in the Asia-Pacific. The Squad consists of the United States, the Philippines, Australia and Japan. The Quad includes the United States, India, Australia and Japan. Their importance comes from shared efforts to build security partnerships and counter China’s growing regional influence.

The key difference is membership. The Squad brings together the United States and three treaty allies: the Philippines, Australia and Japan. The Quad replaces the Philippines with India. Unlike a formal military alliance, the Quad is a dialogue rather than a binding defence pact. Squad meetings have focused on defence cooperation among the four countries.

The groupings are becoming more visible. Quad leaders are expected to meet in Manila, while Squad officials may hold defence ministers’ or leaders’ talks alongside the Asean summit. Both groupings formed part of the previous Biden administration’s “latticework” strategy, and the Trump administration has continued their dialogue as regional partners assess US commitment.

The two groupings involve five distinct countries altogether: the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and India. The groups overlap heavily, since the United States, Australia and Japan belong to both. India belongs only to the Quad, while the Philippines belongs only to the Squad.

Three of the five countries are described as US treaty allies. They are the Philippines, Australia and Japan. India is a Quad participant but is not identified in the article as a US treaty ally. The United States is itself the central member of both groupings, rather than an ally of itself.

This structure gives Washington two related networks with different political and security profiles. The Squad links the United States with three treaty allies. The Quad adds India and operates as a non-formal dialogue. Their overlapping membership can make coordination easier, while their different memberships allow separate partnerships.

Several security meetings are expected in the Philippines. The Quad leaders are expected to hold their first summit in more than two years in Manila, on the sidelines of the Asean conference. Possible Squad meetings may also occur there, including a defence ministers’ meeting or, depending on agreements, a leaders’ meeting.

The clearest scheduled event is the Philippine Department of National Defence’s defence ministers’ meeting and related engagements. They are set for October 28 and 29 in Cebu. The Asean leaders’ summit will then take place in Manila from November 16 to 18. The Quad summit is planned for the same regional gathering, though the specific date had not been announced.

These meetings are expected just days before US President Donald Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in Shenzhen next month. Philippine ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said the Squad meetings were possible, while a source called their probability “very high.”

The main reason is strategic competition with China. The article describes the Squad as part of a US-led regional strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. The Quad and Squad also support a broader effort to build overlapping coalitions rather than rely on one formal alliance.

The Biden administration called this approach a “latticework” of partnerships. The groupings connect the United States with Australia, Japan, the Philippines and India through meetings, defence cooperation and diplomatic coordination. The Squad’s first defence ministers’ meeting took place in Singapore in June 2023, followed by further interactions and a defence cooperation council meeting in May.

The Trump administration has continued the dialogue, but regional partners are concerned about the durability of US security commitments. Overlapping groups can deepen cooperation and reassure partners. They also show that Washington and its allies are testing flexible arrangements as they compete with China and manage changing regional priorities.

If the Quad and Squad coordinate more closely, regional countries could gain a denser network of security relationships. The groupings already overlap through the United States, Australia and Japan. More regular meetings could help them share priorities, build defence cooperation and respond together to China’s growing influence.

The mechanism would be practical coordination among leaders, defence ministers and military officials. The Squad has held defence ministers’ meetings and a defence cooperation council meeting. The Quad’s planned leaders’ summit would add political weight. The Philippine ambassador also described a wider network of seven or eight defence agreements, especially among Japan, Australia, the United States and the Philippines.

The future is not certain. Regional partners are questioning how durable US security commitments will be as Washington recalibrates its Asia-Pacific priorities. Deeper coordination could strengthen cooperation, but it would remain a network of overlapping dialogues rather than one unified military alliance.

Philippine ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said he hoped Asean could become like Nato and take care of its own security. He argued that integrated security would be more efficient because Asean countries are together and share the same neighbourhood. He also envisioned joint agreements with China and the United States.

The proposal would require Asean members to coordinate defence and military policy more closely. Romualdez linked this goal to wider economic integration and said countries could negotiate as a group. That would represent a major change from separate national security arrangements and the current reliance on external partnerships.

The idea faces serious obstacles. Defence secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr rejected it in 2024, citing Asean’s complex “dichotomies and divergence in country interests.” The article therefore presents an Asean security alliance as a hope, not an agreed plan. Its future would depend on overcoming those differences.

A military alliance is a formal arrangement in which countries commit to cooperate on defence and security. Such an alliance normally has agreed responsibilities, but the article does not specify any particular treaty or mutual-defence rule. The central idea is a structured security commitment among members.

The Quad works differently. It includes the United States, India, Australia and Japan, but the article explicitly says it is not a formal military alliance. It is an informal security dialogue that brings leaders and officials together. The group’s meetings provide a channel for consultation and cooperation without creating the same formal structure as an alliance.

This distinction matters as the Quad and Squad expand their activities. The Squad includes three US treaty allies, while the Quad adds India as a non-treaty partner. Their meetings can deepen cooperation and coordinate policy, but the article does not describe either grouping as a single unified military alliance.