HDB resale flat prices dipped 0.1% in Q3; more flats sold after 15-month wait-out period lifted

HDB resale flats are previously owned Housing Board homes sold by their current owners. They differ from new flats bought directly from HDB because the transaction happens in the resale market. The 15-month wait-out rule was introduced in September 2022 to curb demand from cash-rich private homeowners seeking resale flats.

Under the rule, private-property owners generally had to sell their private home and wait 15 months before buying an HDB resale flat. Before the easing, buyers aged 55 and above were exempt if they bought a four-room or smaller resale flat. The rule was lifted on July 28, 2026.

National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat said the change reflected improved market conditions and significantly moderated resale prices. HDB later reported no significant increase in prices or purchases by private-property downgraders after the rule was removed.

HDB resale prices dipped 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026. This followed declines of 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.3% in the second quarter. The quarterly fall was small, but it continued a recent period of softer prices.

Transaction volume moved in the opposite direction. Buyers and sellers completed 7,645 resale-flat deals, up 19.5% from 6,396 in the second quarter. The total was also 5.9% higher than the 7,221 transactions recorded in the same quarter of 2025.

The figures show more activity without a broad price rebound. Analysts linked the stronger sales partly to the lifting of the 15-month wait-out period. However, HDB said it had not seen a significant increase in prices or purchases by private-property downgraders.

Private-property downgraders often need a larger flat after selling a private home. When the 15-month wait was removed, some could move into the HDB resale market sooner. That likely widened the pool of buyers for bigger flats, even though HDB did not report a significant overall increase in downgraders’ purchases.

The clearest change appeared in larger homes. Five-room-flat transactions rose 26.7% to 1,867 units. Executive-flat sales jumped 41.6% to 545 units. Lee Sze Teck said private-property downgraders likely contributed to this increase.

These were the highest combined numbers for five-room and larger flats since the third quarter of 2022. The figures suggest the policy change affected the mix of homes changing hands more clearly than it affected the overall market or prices.

Slightly lower prices alongside sharply higher sales usually indicate that buyers remained active but were not bidding broadly higher. Sellers may have accepted more realistic prices, while buyers took advantage of available choices. The HDB market therefore showed stronger activity without renewed general price escalation.

The third quarter recorded 7,645 transactions, 19.5% more than the previous quarter, while the resale price index fell 0.1%. Larger homes changed hands especially often after the 15-month wait-out period was lifted. This suggests the policy change helped release some delayed demand.

The current picture is not one of collapsing demand. HDB reported no significant increase in downgraders’ prices or purchases, but overall transactions rose. Demand appears present and selective, with buyers active at prices they consider acceptable rather than competing across the market.

An overall price index covers many flat types and locations. It can fall slightly even while a smaller premium segment records more high-value sales. Million-dollar transactions reflect the mix of homes sold, not just the market-wide average.

In the third quarter, 596 HDB flats sold for at least $1 million, up from 490 in the previous quarter. The most expensive homes included Serangoon executive flats, with a median price of $1.13 million, and Queenstown four-room flats, at $1.065 million. About half of million-dollar deals involved flats aged 15 years or less.

Twenty-six flats sold for $1.5 million or more. These were five-room and executive flats in sought-after areas including Bishan, Bukit Merah, Clementi and Queenstown. Premium transactions therefore increased even as the broad resale index dipped 0.1%.

A large pipeline of new homes can change the balance between supply and demand. More available units give buyers more choices and may reduce urgency. If demand grows more slowly than supply, sellers and developers may face greater pressure to keep prices competitive.

URA said 4,745 private homes would be launched under the Government Land Sales programme in the second half of 2026. That brings confirmed full-year supply to 9,320 units, more than 50% above the average annual launch volume over the past decade. About 57,200 private homes, including executive condominiums, are expected to be completed in the next few years.

The effect will depend on buyer demand, incomes, borrowing costs and where the homes are located. The article does not predict a specific price fall. It does indicate that upcoming launches, including about 2,000 units in three projects, could increase fourth-quarter activity.

Supply and demand form the basic mechanism. Limited homes and strong buyer demand tend to push prices up. More homes or weaker demand can reduce price pressure. The article illustrates this balance through rising private-home supply and changing HDB resale activity.

Interest rates affect monthly mortgage costs. Higher rates generally reduce borrowing capacity and may weaken demand, while lower rates can make loans more affordable. Rising incomes usually support prices because households can spend more. Mortgage rules, such as loan limits, eligibility tests and required cash payments, also restrict or expand purchasing power.

These forces interact rather than work separately. A large supply pipeline may moderate prices, but strong incomes or easier financing could sustain demand. The article provides market figures but does not state current interest rates, income growth or specific mortgage-rule changes, so their exact effect cannot be measured here.