‘The biggest motivation is fear’: High turnout among Israel’s Palestinians could unseat Netanyahu

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament, made up of 120 seats. Israeli governments are formed through coalitions because no single bloc may control enough seats alone. Reaching 61 seats gives a coalition a majority in the chamber.

The article describes an election where Netanyahu’s coalition was expected to lose its majority, while the Jewish-Israeli opposition bloc was also expected to remain below 61 seats. That creates a hung parliament, where neither main side can govern without additional support.

The 61-seat threshold therefore turns smaller blocs into potential kingmakers. Palestinian parties were forecast to win 12 to 15 seats, enough to determine whether a coalition reaches the majority line. Even if opposition parties publicly reject cooperation with Arab politicians, election mathematics may pressure them to negotiate after the results.

Palestinian citizens of Israel account for about one-fifth of the country’s population. Their voting strength is concentrated among parties expected to win between 12 and 15 Knesset seats. Those seats could become especially important when neither major political bloc reaches a majority.

The article identifies two main groupings: the Islamist Ra’am party and the Joint List alliance of three smaller parties, including Ta’al. Ahmad Tibi leads Ta’al and has served as a Knesset member for more than two decades. The parties do not necessarily share every political position, but their combined representation can affect coalition arithmetic.

Their possible influence comes from the gap between the blocs. Polls suggested Netanyahu’s coalition would lose its majority, while the Jewish-Israeli opposition would also fall short of 61 seats. A 12-to-15-seat Palestinian bloc could therefore determine who forms the next government.

Higher turnout matters because Palestinian citizens’ votes translate into Knesset seats. If their parties win more seats, those representatives can strengthen efforts to prevent Netanyahu’s coalition from regaining a majority. Ahmad Tibi called turnout an important tool for bringing the government down.

The numbers explain the strategy. Polls suggested Netanyahu’s coalition would lose its majority, but the Jewish-Israeli opposition bloc would also remain below the 61 seats needed to govern. Palestinian parties were forecast to win 12 to 15 seats, making their representation large enough to close that gap.

This does not guarantee an anti-Netanyahu government. Most Jewish-Israeli opposition parties had ruled out a coalition with Arab politicians, and Netanyahu’s allies portrayed such cooperation as dangerous. Still, without Palestinian participation or support, the opposition may lack the seats needed to form a government.

A party or bloc does not need to lead the election to become powerful. It can become decisive when the larger blocs lack enough seats to reach the 61-seat majority. That is the position Palestinian parties could occupy after the election.

The article forecasts 12 to 15 seats for Ra’am and the Joint List alliance. Polls suggest Netanyahu’s coalition may lose its majority, while the Jewish-Israeli opposition also remains below 61. Adding Palestinian lawmakers to an opposition arrangement could therefore supply the missing votes, at least in principle.

The obstacle is political rather than mathematical. Most Jewish-Israeli opposition parties have ruled out a coalition with Arab politicians, while Netanyahu’s allies have tried to make such cooperation toxic. Yet Mohammed, a prospective voter, expects those positions to shift after the results because the numbers may leave no other workable path to forming a government.

Mansour Abbas and Ra’am demonstrated that Palestinian politicians could enter an Israeli governing coalition. Their participation mattered because it broke with the common practice of keeping Arab parties outside government coalitions. It also created a recent example for politicians facing another hung parliament.

In 2021, Abbas took Ra’am into a historic coalition government led by Naftali Bennett. The article identifies Bennett as now part of the opposition bloc. It also notes that Benjamin Netanyahu had previously begun coalition negotiations with Abbas, showing that political barriers could shift when coalition arithmetic demanded it.

The precedent does not mean a new agreement is certain. Palestinian parties face major policy differences with Jewish-Israeli opposition parties, especially over Palestinian statehood and West Bank settlements. Still, the 2021 experience gives both sides evidence that practical deals can happen after election results, even when parties made earlier promises not to cooperate.

Palestinian citizens face a choice between participation and rejection. They can vote for parties such as Ra’am, Ta’al, or other Joint List members, hoping their seats help block a far-right government. They can also support a coalition deal with Jewish-Israeli opposition parties, even when those parties do not fully share their goals.

Mohammed chose participation and urged Jewish and Palestinian friends to vote. He believed opposition parties would eventually need Palestinian seats. By contrast, journalist Nagham Zbeedat said she did not vote because she refused to legitimize a system she viewed as treating Palestinian rights as favors and safety as optional.

The choices are difficult because neither main alternative fully fits Palestinian political priorities. Most opposition parties oppose a Palestinian state and support West Bank settlements, while another Netanyahu-led government could deepen fears about racism, violence, and discrimination. Voters must weigh limited influence against political disengagement.

Israel’s electoral system turns election results into coalition negotiations. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs 61 to hold a majority. When no bloc reaches that number, parties must combine their seats or secure outside support to form a government.

The article gives a clear example. Polls suggested Netanyahu’s coalition would lose its majority, while the Jewish-Israeli opposition would also fall short of 61. Palestinian parties were forecast to win 12 to 15 seats. Those seats could fill the gap for an opposition arrangement, even though many opposition parties publicly rejected a coalition with Arab politicians.

This is why vote totals matter beyond the largest party. A smaller bloc can become decisive if its seats are the difference between 60 and 61. The 2021 coalition involving Ra’am also shows how election mathematics can encourage cooperation after campaign promises and political boundaries have been tested.