Some of Europe’s highest energy costs expected in Britain this winter

Great Britain is expected to avoid shortages, but that security comes at a high price. The country relies heavily on imported gas and electricity, and it often must outbid neighbouring markets to secure supplies. European gas prices have already reached their highest level since December 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring.

National Gas expects Britain to increase seaborne LNG imports by about 5% from last winter. It also expects Britain to be a net electricity importer. Low European gas storage, reduced supply from Qatar, and weaker French nuclear and Norwegian hydropower output could make suppliers more expensive. Britain’s small gas stores leave it especially exposed.

The system is forecast to meet demand during cold months, but tighter margins mean higher costs. Ofgem approved a Belgian pipeline deal that adds about 10p monthly to the average gas bill. Gas plants may also be needed more during extreme periods, even as renewables grow.

Britain’s import bill is clearer than its total imported energy volume. The Office for National Statistics recorded a record £4bn spent on power imports in the year ending in August. Half of that amount was spent on electricity imported from France. The article does not provide one overall figure for all gas and electricity imports.

For the coming winter, National Gas forecasts that seaborne LNG cargoes will rise by about 5% from last winter. The National Energy System Operator also expects Great Britain to be a net importer of electricity. These imports fill gaps left by small gas stores, falling North Sea production, and tighter European power supplies.

The financial risk is that imports become more expensive when countries compete for limited supplies. Britain has already paid near-record sums to run gas plants, while some renewable generators were paid to shut down because of grid bottlenecks. Costs could rise further during cold, high-demand periods.

Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to an extremely low temperature until it becomes a liquid. This makes it possible to transport gas in seaborne cargoes. The article does not define LNG, but it identifies ship-delivered LNG as an important part of Great Britain’s winter supply.

Britain is forecast to increase LNG imports by about 5% from last winter. Its buyers may need to compete more fiercely with other European countries for cargoes. Europe entered the cooler months with its lowest gas-storage level in 13 years. Qatar’s slower exports also reduced supply, while summer cooling increased gas consumption across Europe.

That combination makes each available cargo more valuable. Britain has some of Europe’s smallest gas stores, after decades of relying on North Sea production. If storage is low and demand rises, buyers may have to offer higher prices. The article says LNG prices are already three times higher than before the Middle East crisis disrupted Gulf supplies.

Gas shortages would be most dangerous when temperatures plunge and households, businesses, and power stations all need more energy. Britain is expected to have enough supply in the normal winter outlook, but the margin is narrower during extreme demand. Losing an important pipeline or another major source could therefore create a serious system emergency.

National Gas struck an 11th-hour deal with the owner of a major Belgian pipeline to reverse a planned capacity cut. Ofgem approved it after warning that, without the intervention, gas could run out in a worst-case situation involving network failure and sharply falling temperatures. The deal adds around 10p a month to the average gas bill.

A gas shortage could also affect electricity. Gas plants are used when demand is high and renewable output is low, especially on dark, still winter days. National Gas raised its forecast for gas power demand in the most extreme scenarios. Supply failure would therefore threaten both heating security and electricity reliability.

Gas storage acts as a reserve for periods when consumption rises faster than new supplies can arrive. When storage levels are low, countries have less gas available to release during cold spells. They must rely more quickly on pipelines and LNG cargoes, which can make the market more sensitive to sudden demand.

Europe ended August on course to have its lowest gas stores in 13 years. Qatar’s slower exports reduced supply, while record summer heat increased gas use for refrigeration and cooling. Britain has some of Europe’s smallest stores after decades of depending on North Sea production. Its own production was forecast to fall 6% this year compared with last winter.

If a cold period affects several countries at once, buyers may compete for the same LNG cargoes. National Gas warned that UK prices could remain high under that pressure. The result is not necessarily an immediate shortage, but a smaller safety cushion and greater exposure to price spikes.

Electricity systems depend on several sources working together. Extreme weather can reduce those sources at the same time. Heatwaves lowered river levels across Europe, affecting the water available for cooling French nuclear plants and for Norwegian hydropower. Weak wind would also reduce output from wind farms, especially when demand remains high.

The article reports that French nuclear output was hit by low rivers. Norway’s hydroelectric reserves stayed below the 10-year minimum from late July. It also describes dark, still winter days, when electricity demand rises but wind and solar generation falls. These conditions can force systems to use more gas plants or imports.

The effect is tighter European power supply and higher costs for Britain, which is forecast to be a net electricity importer. Britain already spent £4bn on power imports in the year ending August. When several countries lose generation together, import competition becomes stronger and supply margins narrow.

Electricity systems need several sources because supply and demand change constantly. Wind and solar provide rising amounts of energy, but output can fall on dark, still days. Storage can help, yet Britain has some of Europe’s smallest gas stores. Imports add flexibility, but they may cost more when neighbouring countries also need energy.

Gas plants provide a crucial backup during supply crunches. National Gas found that they remained heavily used across successive winters when high demand coincided with low renewable output. Britain can also use pipeline gas, LNG, imported electricity, and domestic production. Each source helps cover weaknesses in the others.

This mix does not remove risk, but it improves resilience. Britain is forecast to use gas power plants less overall as renewable energy grows, yet gas demand in the most extreme electricity scenarios could be 7% higher than previously assumed. Flexible supplies remain important as margins tighten.