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Defence & Security23 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

Tigray is still at war, rebel leader warns, claiming tactical victories

The brief

The TPLF means that control of Mekelle is not the same as control of all Tigray. Federal forces recaptured the regional capital after the TPLF withdrew, but the rebel group says fighting continues in northern and central parts of the region. This matters because a military victory in a major city may not end resistance across a wider area. Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF leader, said on Tigrayan television that the group was continuing to fight federal forces. He also claimed that TPLF fighters had neutralized hundreds of federal soldiers during recent battles. His message presented the conflict as active rather than finished. The current reality is disputed control and continued violence. The army holds Mekelle, while the TPLF claims tactical successes elsewhere. Drone strikes have also killed people in Tigray, and analysts warn that the army’s advance could increase the risk of war with Eritrea.

01

What does the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) mean when it says Tigray is still at war, even though federal forces recaptured Mekelle?

The TPLF means that control of Mekelle is not the same as control of all Tigray. Federal forces recaptured the regional capital after the TPLF withdrew, but the rebel group says fighting continues in northern and central parts of the region. This matters because a military victory in a major city may not end resistance across a wider area.

Debretsion Gebremichael, the TPLF leader, said on Tigrayan television that the group was continuing to fight federal forces. He also claimed that TPLF fighters had neutralized hundreds of federal soldiers during recent battles. His message presented the conflict as active rather than finished.

The current reality is disputed control and continued violence. The army holds Mekelle, while the TPLF claims tactical successes elsewhere. Drone strikes have also killed people in Tigray, and analysts warn that the army’s advance could increase the risk of war with Eritrea.

02

What is the TPLF, and why is it fighting Ethiopia’s federal government?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, is a Tigrayan political organization with an armed wing. In the article, it is described as Ethiopia’s rebel force in the northern state of Tigray. Its leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, says the group is still fighting federal forces.

The article does not explain the dispute’s full origins. In general, the fighting reflects a struggle over political authority between Tigray’s regional leadership and Ethiopia’s national government. The TPLF seeks to retain influence and defend its forces in Tigray, while federal forces are trying to restore national control. Those competing aims make negotiations and military action central to the conflict.

The immediate result is continuing violence, even after federal forces recaptured Mekelle. The TPLF says it won recent tactical battles in northern and central Tigray. Its continued resistance means the conflict cannot be judged only by who controls the regional capital.

03

How many soldiers and civilians were reportedly affected by the recent fighting and drone strikes?

The article reports two different kinds of impact, but it does not provide one complete casualty total. Debretsion Gebremichael claimed that hundreds of federal soldiers were neutralized during recent fighting in northern and central Tigray. “Neutralized” is the article’s wording and does not clarify how many were killed, wounded, or captured.

The article separately reports that a drone strike in southern Tigray killed four people. Other strikes targeted civilians and a school in Amhara, but no number of deaths or injuries from those attacks is given. Therefore, the clearly stated figures are hundreds of federal soldiers affected and four people killed in the Tigray drone strike.

The numbers show that both combatants and civilians are exposed to the conflict. However, the available figures are incomplete. They do not establish the total human cost of the recent fighting, nor do they measure the civilian harm linked to the strikes in Amhara.

04

Why might capturing Mekelle fail to end the conflict if the TPLF continues fighting elsewhere in Tigray?

A capital is politically important, but holding it does not automatically end an armed conflict. If opposing forces withdraw and continue operating in surrounding areas, they can keep attacking government troops and contesting authority. That makes territorial control uneven and keeps the war active.

The article provides a direct example. Federal forces recaptured Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew, yet Debretsion Gebremichael said the group continued fighting in northern and central Tigray. He also claimed the TPLF had neutralized hundreds of federal soldiers in recent battles. The mechanism is continued resistance outside the capital.

This means Mekelle’s capture may be a major military gain without being a final settlement. Ongoing fighting can bring more deaths, displacement, and strikes, although the article does not give figures for those effects. Analysts also warn that the army’s advance could increase the risk of war with Eritrea, widening the consequences.

05

Who are the federal forces, the TPLF, Fano militants, and Eritrean forces, and what roles do they play in the conflict?

Federal forces are troops of Ethiopia’s national government. They recaptured Mekelle and are fighting to control Tigray. The TPLF is the rebel organization led by Debretsion Gebremichael. It withdrew from Mekelle but says it continues armed resistance in northern and central Tigray.

Fano militants are armed opponents of the army in Amhara region. The article says strikes targeted civilians and a school there while the army was fighting Fano. Eritrean forces are not described as taking part in the reported battles. Instead, analysts warn that Ethiopia’s advance could raise the risk of a separate or wider war with Eritrea.

These actors create overlapping conflicts. Federal troops face the TPLF in Tigray and Fano in Amhara. The TPLF’s continued fighting keeps Tigray unstable, while the Amhara fighting adds another front. Eritrea’s possible involvement is presented as a danger, not as a confirmed current role in the article.

06

How could fighting in Tigray and neighboring Amhara increase the risk of a wider war involving Eritrea?

A wider war becomes more likely when fighting spreads across borders or draws neighboring forces into an existing conflict. Tigray lies near Eritrea, so military advances and continued resistance there can create direct security concerns for Eritrea. The article says analysts have warned specifically about this risk.

The article gives two connected examples. The army advanced after recapturing Mekelle, while the TPLF claimed it was still fighting elsewhere in Tigray. At the same time, the army was fighting Fano militants in Amhara, and strikes there targeted civilians and a school. These overlapping battles increase the number of armed actors and active areas.

The article does not say that Eritrean forces have entered the fighting. It says the army’s advance could raise the risk of war with Eritrea. If that warning became reality, the conflict could expand beyond Ethiopia’s internal fighting and involve another state directly.

07

How does Ethiopia’s federal system divide power between the national government and regional states, and why can disputes over that division lead to armed conflict?

In a federal system, power is shared between a national government and regional governments. The national level usually handles countrywide matters, while regions manage important local affairs. Ethiopia’s regions therefore have political authority, but they remain part of one country. The article does not explain the constitutional details of this division.

Disputes become dangerous when national and regional leaders disagree over elections, security, taxation, or control of armed forces. Each side may claim legal authority, while the other sees the claim as a threat. If political channels fail, regional forces and national troops can confront one another. In this case, the TPLF and federal forces are fighting over control in Tigray.

The current crisis shows how a local power struggle can spread. Federal forces recaptured Mekelle, but the TPLF says resistance continues elsewhere. Fighting also involves Fano militants in Amhara, while analysts warn of possible conflict with Eritrea. Divided authority can therefore produce wider instability when force replaces negotiation.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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