Trump's U.N. envoy says Iran war could drag on for another year

When a war “drags on,” it continues longer than leaders or the public expect, with fighting and political pressure unresolved. In this case, another year would mean the conflict could continue for about twelve more months. That matters because prolonged war can keep disrupting shipping, energy supplies, markets, and diplomacy.

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told the Financial Times that the war with Iran could last another year. He also said he hoped Iranian officials would “come to the table” before then. President Trump has repeatedly said the war would end “very soon,” creating a gap between the two messages.

The timing remains uncertain. Trump said the United States could end the war quickly, but also said Iran could be allowed to “wither.” Waltz’s warning suggests the conflict may not have a near-term settlement, while the administration still says negotiations could change that outcome.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider ocean. Oil tankers use it to carry energy exports from Gulf producers to international customers. Because shipping is concentrated through this route, threats or attacks can create immediate concern about whether cargoes will arrive safely.

The article reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it had disabled seven tankers near the strait. It also says Brent crude rose to $117 a barrel. Saudi Aramco increased flows through its East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, showing that countries are seeking alternatives when the waterway becomes uncertain.

The article also reports that the United States and Iran exchanged conflicting claims about attacks on ships. Even without a confirmed shutdown, uncertainty can affect traders, shipping companies, and governments. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot warned that further escalation could have serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices.

The article gives no figure for the normal amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, so that part cannot be calculated from the supplied text. It does show why the route matters: uncertainty around the strait is raising concern about oil exports across the Middle East. The strait is also described as a route that Saudi Arabia’s pipeline can bypass.

Saudi Aramco said oil moving through its East-West pipeline rose from 2 million to 7 million barrels per day. That is an increase of 5 million barrels per day and more than a threefold jump. The pipeline offers a land-based alternative for some Saudi oil, reducing reliance on tankers using Hormuz.

This alternative cannot automatically replace every shipment affected by maritime disruption. Still, the higher pipeline flow gives Saudi Arabia another way to move oil while uncertainty continues. The article connects that uncertainty with rising Brent prices, which reached more than $117 a barrel.

Reports of disabled tankers can raise oil prices because markets price in risk, not only barrels already missing. If ships cannot safely carry crude, traders may expect fewer deliveries, higher insurance and transport costs, or a wider conflict that disrupts additional exports. Those expectations can push prices higher immediately.

The article says Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have disabled seven tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 3.5% to over $117 a barrel that day. President Trump accused Iran of lying about attacks on ships to drive up oil prices before the U.S. midterm elections, showing that the reports themselves were disputed.

The price reaction can therefore occur before investigators confirm the damage or establish responsibility. France’s foreign minister warned that further escalation could have serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices. Continued uncertainty may keep crude expensive, while calmer shipping conditions could reduce that risk premium.

When shipments through the Strait of Hormuz become uncertain, oil producers and buyers can seek routes that avoid the waterway. These may include land pipelines, alternative ports, different tanker paths, or stored supplies. Such options matter because they can keep some oil moving while ships face danger or delays.

Saudi Arabia provides the article’s clearest example. Saudi Aramco said flows through its East-West pipeline rose from 2 million to 7 million barrels per day. The pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, allowing more Saudi oil to move without using the threatened maritime route. The increase was more than threefold.

These alternatives may reduce pressure but do not eliminate the wider risk. The article says uncertainty still hangs over Middle Eastern exports, while Brent crude climbed above $117. Other routes may have limited capacity, so prolonged disruption could continue affecting prices, markets, and consumers.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is presented in the article as an actor making a claim about shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. It said seven tankers had been disabled. That claim matters because any damage or threat involving tankers can raise fears about energy exports and push oil prices higher.

The article does not explain how the Guard supposedly disabled the vessels. It also does not describe a separate role for Iran’s navy. The reported claim was followed by Brent crude reaching $117 a barrel, while President Trump accused Iran of lying about attacks on ships to raise oil prices before U.S. midterm elections.

The facts therefore show influence through both maritime activity and contested information, but not a confirmed operational account. The article also reports that some incidents remain unclear, including an oil spill involving the Gem No. 2 tanker. Further escalation, France’s foreign minister warned, could sharply affect hydrocarbon prices.

Crude prices reflect the balance between available supply and global demand, plus expectations about what may happen next. If fighting threatens oil production or shipping, traders may expect fewer barrels in the future. They bid prices higher even before supplies actually run out. Strong demand can add pressure, while weaker demand can reduce it.

The article gives a clear example. Brent crude climbed from below $97 at the start of October to above $117, after reports involving tankers and the Strait of Hormuz. The price increase raised concern about Middle Eastern exports. Saudi Arabia’s higher pipeline flows showed an effort to keep some oil moving despite that uncertainty.

Higher oil costs can hurt companies that use fuel and leave consumers paying more for energy and transport. Investors also worry that expensive oil can weaken economic activity and profits. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow dropped 550 points, and three out of four S&P 500 stocks declined.