The Generational Divide in the Polls Facing De la Espriella

The poll shows a strong generational divide in how Colombians view Abelardo de la Espriella. Younger respondents are far less supportive, while older respondents are much more favorable. The pattern matters because it is consistent across two separate questions: presidential approval and evaluation of the government.

Among people aged 18–24, 25.7% approve of the president’s management. Among those over 60, approval reaches 64.9%. Net approval is also negative among the youngest group and positive among the oldest. The line rises through every age group without exception.

The divide is not only about rejection. One in five young respondents answered “I don’t know,” compared with 1.8% of those over 60. The article says this uncertainty could reflect limited political interest, suspended judgment, or discomfort with expressing opposition. The available data cannot determine which explanation is correct.

The age-based approval gap is the difference between the share approving in the youngest and oldest groups. Here, 25.7% of respondents aged 18–24 approve of Abelardo de la Espriella, while 64.9% of respondents over 60 do. Subtracting the first figure from the second produces a 39.2-point difference.

The article rounds that result to 39 points. This measures approval alone, not the full balance between support and opposition. The gap becomes even more striking when net approval is used, because that calculation includes disapproval as well as approval.

Net approval stands at −28.3 among the youngest respondents and +31.6 among the oldest. That creates a difference of 59.9 points, or almost 60. The article describes the age pattern as a steady rise, with no age group breaking the trend.

Net approval is a simple measure of the balance between support and opposition. It is calculated by subtracting the percentage that disapproves from the percentage that approves. A positive result means approval is higher; a negative result means disapproval is higher.

For example, respondents aged 18–24 have net approval of −28.3, while those over 60 have net approval of +31.6. These figures show that young respondents are more negative overall, while older respondents are more positive. The difference between the two groups is nearly 60 points.

This measure matters because approval alone can hide the scale of rejection. The article reports a 39-point gap in approval, but the net-approval gap is larger because it includes disapproval. It also shows that net approval becomes positive among respondents aged 35–44 and rises with each older group.

Between the August and September measurements, national changes were modest but age groups moved differently. Overall approval fell from 51.8% to 48.7%, while disapproval rose from 43.2% to 44.6%. The share answering “I don’t know” increased from 5.0% to 6.7%, reducing net approval from +8.6 to +4.1.

Among 18–24-year-olds, disapproval dropped 11 points and “I don’t know” rose 15 points. Approval also declined, meaning some rejection shifted toward uncertainty. For respondents aged 25–34, approval fell 11 points and net approval moved from positive to negative.

The 45–59 group moved in another direction: disapproval increased by 9 points. These are cross-sectional samples, not the same individuals followed over time. The article says the national changes are small and just above the margin of error, while the age patterns show movement in three directions.

The article compares today’s age divide with the gap recorded for Iván Duque during the 2021 national strike. In October 2021, approval differed by 26 points between the youngest and oldest age groups, according to the CNC. That was a substantial generational difference, but smaller than the current approval gap.

For Abelardo de la Espriella, approval differs by 39 points between respondents aged 18–24 and those over 60. Measured as net approval, the current difference is nearly 60 points. The article says that is the same size as the net-approval gap associated with the social outbreak.

There is also an important political distinction. De la Espriella has respondents over 35 on his side, while Duque never had any age group in his favor. The article says the data do not show that unrest will repeat, but some conditions are coming together.

The age results come from a substantial national survey, but each age comparison is less precise than the total sample. Latam Pulse surveyed 2,893 people in Colombia. Its overall margin of error is ±2 points at a 95% confidence level.

The age groups contain between 490 and 680 respondents. Their margins of error range from ±3.8 to ±4.4 points. That means individual percentages can move somewhat because of sampling variation. Still, the observed 39-point approval gap and nearly 60-point net-approval gap are much larger than those margins.

The article also finds a similar age pattern in a second question about government performance. Excellent or good evaluations rise from 20.2% among 18–24-year-olds to 65.3% among those over 60. Agreement across two measures reduces the likelihood that the divide is merely a measurement artifact, though it does not eliminate uncertainty.

A large age-based approval gap means a government is not being judged similarly across generations. Support may be concentrated among older voters, while younger citizens remain opposed or uncertain. That uneven base can make it harder to present the government as broadly representative.

In this case, 64.9% of people over 60 approve, compared with 25.7% of those aged 18–24. The government’s evaluation shows the same pattern. Younger respondents are also much more likely to answer “I don’t know,” leaving one in five outside the clear approval–disapproval divide.

The article says recent executive decisions suggest the gap does not worry the government, which appears to be entrenched among its electorate. It describes this as a tension that concerns some observers. The data do not prove another social outbreak will occur, but they indicate that some conditions associated with earlier unrest are returning.