Beyond the polls: What are Israelis really thinking as they head to the ballot box?

Israel is approaching an election on Tuesday, and numerous media outlets are publishing polls. KAN, Channels 12 and 13, Maariv, i24NEWS, and Channel 14 are all part of the polling landscape. Each survey can create a new headline about the race.

The article argues that polls provide an incomplete picture. It says surveys may reinforce the outlook of the organizations conducting them rather than accurately capture public thinking. To test what voters actually feel, The Magazine interviewed people from different parts of the country and asked whom they supported and why.

Their answers produced surprises. It found Ben-Gvir supporters in places ranging from left-leaning Rosh Hayin to haredi Tel Stone. It also found couples splitting their choices and one voter planning to choose randomly between two parties. These accounts may or may not signal wider trends, but they reflect Israel’s domestic turmoil and its tensions with world powers.

An election poll is a survey of voters or likely voters used to estimate support for competing parties or candidates. It matters because people use those estimates to judge momentum, possible winners, and coalition prospects before voting day. A poll is an estimate, not a count of actual ballots.

Different news organizations can show conflicting results because they may use different polling sources, samples, questions, timing, or methods. The article adds a sharper criticism: polls can be constructed to reinforce the media source conducting them. That may give audiences a clear impression of whom an outlet supports without accurately capturing public opinion.

The article describes Israelis following polls like a tennis match, shifting from one result to another. Because of this uncertainty, The Magazine interviewed voters directly. Their answers showed support for Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, Netanyahu, or multiple options, suggesting that polling headlines do not fully explain voter thinking.

The Knesset has 120 seats. Israel uses a nationwide proportional-representation system, so parties receive seats according to their share of the vote rather than winning separate geographic districts. A party generally must pass the 3.25% electoral threshold to receive representation. The article itself does not state these figures; they come from Israel’s established election rules.

The threshold is important because a party can win votes but receive no seats if it falls below it. That makes small-party support consequential. Voters may want to back a preferred party, while also worrying about whether that party will qualify for the Knesset.

This helps explain the article’s unusual voting ideas. Moshe plans to choose randomly between two tolerable parties from different blocs. He says he may not know whether his selected party will enter the Knesset or whether his vote will count. Fragmented results can also make coalition-building difficult after election day.

Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading figure of Likud, Itamar Ben-Gvir leads Jewish Power, and Bezalel Smotrich leads the Religious Zionist Party. These parties are generally placed within Israel’s right-wing bloc, though they are separate political vehicles. The article identifies Ben-Gvir as national security minister and discusses Netanyahu and Smotrich mainly through voters’ choices and alliances.

Their relationships matter because right-wing voters may divide their ballots among them. Reggie and her husband plan to vote for Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir separately. Mike is considering Likud or Smotrich. Yori supports Smotrich because he opposes a Palestinian state and sees Smotrich as a check on Netanyahu.

The article presents Ben-Gvir as a possible surprise, including among some haredi voters. It also portrays Smotrich as influential and principled in the eyes of supporters. The parties’ combined strength, and their willingness to cooperate, can shape whether a right-wing coalition is possible.

In the article, “splitting the ticket” means people in the same household divide their votes among different parties. Reggie says her husband will vote for Netanyahu, while she will vote for Ben-Gvir. Both support the right-wing bloc, but they want different parties within it.

This differs from choosing one party, where a voter selects a single party’s ballot and gives that party their vote. The split approach spreads support across parties that may have different priorities. Reggie wants Netanyahu to remain because she believes enemies and antisemitism are targeting him, but she leans toward Ben-Gvir because she wants a stronger right-wing position.

The practice may give voters a way to balance coalition loyalty with personal preference. It does not create a separate joint ballot or combine two party votes into one. Instead, separate voters cast separate ballots, potentially changing the seat totals and bargaining power of parties inside the same bloc.

If voters who support Netanyahu’s bloc divide their ballots among Likud, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich, each party’s separate vote total determines whether it wins Knesset seats. Concentrating votes in one party can strengthen that party, while spreading votes can give several parties representation. The effect depends on each party’s final total.

The key mechanism is the electoral threshold. A party that receives enough votes can add seats to the bloc, but votes for a party that falls below the threshold may produce no seats. The article captures this risk through Moshe’s plan to choose between two parties and his uncertainty about whether his vote will count if both fail to enter.

If all three parties clear the threshold, the bloc may gain several negotiating partners, but coalition talks could become more complicated. Each party may demand influence or policy concessions. If one fails, the bloc could lose seats, making it harder to form a government even if most voters favored its general direction.

Israel’s proportional system turns nationwide party votes into Knesset seats. Parties receive seats broadly according to their share of qualifying votes, rather than winning individual districts. The Knesset has 120 seats, and a party generally needs at least 3.25% of valid votes to participate. These figures are established electoral rules, not figures supplied by the article.

After seats are allocated, a government must be formed through cooperation among parties. A single party rarely controls enough seats alone, so parties negotiate over a coalition. Small parties can become important if their seats help a bloc reach a governing majority. Their policy demands can also make agreements harder.

An election can therefore produce a parliament without producing a government. If negotiations fail, or a coalition collapses, the country may return to voters. That possibility is present in the article: Mike says he expects there is a strong likelihood Israel will have to hold another election.