‘The West can’t stop me’: Space wars heat up as Russia tails a Ukraine-linked US satellite

Russia’s Cosmos 2612 deliberately maneuvered toward ICEYE-X36, a U.S.-registered radar satellite operated by ICEYE’s American arm. The satellite is believed to be among those supplying imagery to Ukraine’s military. The encounter mattered because the Russian satellite did not merely cross paths with it; it approached, matched its orbit, and stayed nearby.

Commercial trackers first flagged the possible rendezvous on October 12. Cosmos 2612 entered ICEYE-X36’s orbit about 345 miles above Earth. By October 15 and 16, it had moved from more than 200 miles behind to roughly three miles away, then came within about a third of a mile and held position through the weekend.

The purpose remains uncertain. LeoLabs said the maneuver could support inspection, intelligence collection, coercion, or future interference. U.S. officials described the behavior as consistent with on-orbit weapons operations, while analysts stressed that the maneuver alone did not prove hostile intent.

A satellite rendezvous is a planned orbital meeting. One spacecraft changes its path and timing to approach another, often matching its orbit and speed. The goal may be inspection, data collection, servicing, or another operation. This is very different from two satellites simply passing near each other because their independent orbits happen to bring them together.

Cosmos 2612 spent more than two weeks maneuvering toward ICEYE-X36. It first approached from more than 200 miles behind, then moved to roughly three miles away. It eventually held position within about a third of a mile. That progression showed deliberate control rather than a brief, accidental crossing. Both spacecraft were traveling around four miles per second.

Jonathan McDowell said he believed this was the first low Earth orbit rendezvous between two active satellites without one owner’s approval. The encounter demonstrated that a spacecraft could inspect, shadow, characterize, or potentially interfere with another, although LeoLabs said it did not prove hostile intent.

Cosmos 2612 and ICEYE-X36 came within about one-third of a mile, or roughly 600 meters, during the weekend of October 17. Both traveled at approximately four miles per second, or seven kilometers per second. Those figures make the encounter far more demanding than a normal close pass between objects in orbit.

The Russian satellite first entered ICEYE-X36’s orbit about 345 miles above Earth. It then closed a distance of more than 200 miles and moved to roughly three miles away before approaching more closely. Greg Gillinger compared two spacecraft within a hundred meters or a kilometer to aircraft flying in a very tight formation.

Low Earth orbit offers little room for error at such speeds. A small mistake in timing or direction could produce a collision or rapidly increase the separation. The precision also made the approach significant: analysts viewed it as evidence of deliberate capability, even though they could not determine whether an attack was planned.

ICEYE’s radar satellites collect imagery in conditions that can defeat ordinary visual observation. They can see through clouds, smoke, and darkness. That matters to Ukraine’s military because battlefield information remains available when weather, fire, or nighttime would otherwise limit visibility. The imagery can support decisions that must be made quickly.

ICEYE expanded cooperation with Ukraine’s military and pledged continued imagery “on tactical timelines.” The company has not confirmed which of its satellites serve Kyiv. ICEYE-X36 is a U.S.-registered satellite operated by ICEYE’s American arm, and officials believed it could be linked to Ukraine’s military support.

The satellite’s usefulness also made the close approach strategically important. Moscow has warned that Western commercial satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate military targets. If imagery access were interrupted, Ukrainian forces could lose timely information, while the broader dependence of modern militaries on commercial space systems would become more exposed.

Interference with a commercial satellite could remove imagery or communications that military forces now depend on. The effects might include slower decisions, weaker coordination, and reduced access to battlefield information. Civilian users could also lose connectivity if the affected spacecraft carried communications services. The article emphasizes that commercial systems increasingly support national security.

The article gives a clear warning through Starlink. After Elon Musk slowed the military-grade service Ukraine relies on, some of the country’s essential air defense weapons became useless. That example shows how quickly a force can suffer when satellite access is reduced without notice. A targeted satellite attack could create similar disruption.

The consequences could spread beyond the original conflict. Commercial satellites carry much of the imagery and connectivity used by militaries, so one attack could affect companies, allies, and civilian services. The article does not establish that Cosmos 2612 attacked ICEYE-X36, but the encounter highlighted this growing vulnerability.

Countries and companies can reduce risk by avoiding dependence on one spacecraft. They can spread communications and imagery across multiple satellites, networks, and providers. Ground systems can also be prepared to switch services quickly. The article presents this approach as resilience, because losing one satellite would not end the entire capability.

ICEYE told Air & Space Forces Magazine that its “constellation architecture is designed for continuity and resilience.” A constellation uses multiple spacecraft rather than relying on one. If one satellite is threatened or unavailable, another may continue collecting radar imagery or supporting the service. Military users can also combine commercial capabilities with government systems.

The article does not describe a complete backup plan or confirm that any satellite was disabled. It does show why alternatives matter. Commercial capabilities are increasingly important to national security, yet they can become vulnerabilities. Future operations will likely require more redundancy, faster switching, and stronger protection for space and ground infrastructure.

In general, a satellite remains in orbit because its forward motion balances Earth’s gravity. Gravity pulls it downward, but its high sideways speed makes it continually fall around the planet rather than straight into it. The result is a curved path whose height, shape, and timing depend on the satellite’s motion.

A small change in speed changes the orbit. Speeding up can raise the opposite side of an orbit, while slowing down can lower it. A spacecraft can use such adjustments to change its arrival time and position relative to another satellite. Repeated small maneuvers can therefore bring two spacecraft together or move one away.

The article illustrates this principle through Cosmos 2612’s approach to ICEYE-X36. It moved from more than 200 miles behind, entered the other satellite’s orbit, and closed to roughly one-third of a mile. Both objects traveled about four miles per second, so precise timing and navigation were essential.