‘We can’t let the far right take power again’: Lula voters in final push before Brazil runoff

A presidential runoff is a second election held between the leading candidates after the first vote fails to produce a settled winner. It narrows the choice and lets voters who backed other candidates, abstained, or cast null votes help decide the final result. Brazil’s runoff therefore became a direct contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.

The first round left Bolsonaro ahead, but by less than 2% of the vote. Lula also received 3.8 million fewer votes than in 2022. Because the contest was so close, both campaigns needed to expand their support rather than rely only on their first-round voters.

The runoff turned the election into a mobilisation battle. Lula targeted nonvoters and people who had supported other candidates, while Bolsonaro’s allies urged supporters not to assume victory. Polls later showed the gap narrowing until the candidates were nearly tied, with Bolsonaro still slightly ahead.

The first-round result was exceptionally close. The article describes the gap between first and second place as less than 2% of the vote, calling it the narrowest-ever gap in Brazil’s presidential elections. Bolsonaro finished ahead, but the lead was too small to make the runoff predictable.

Turnout was also unusual. Abstention reached a record 21%, meaning more than one in five registered voters did not cast a ballot. The article does not give the total number of people represented by that percentage, but it identifies abstention as a major pool of possible support.

This mattered because abstention was more common among groups that tend to favour Lula, including lower-income and less-educated voters and older people. His campaign therefore focused on getting these citizens to participate. If enough stayed home, the small first-round margin could become decisive; if they returned, Lula could close the gap.

Lula’s strategy is to enlarge his coalition before the runoff. He cannot rely only on people who already voted for him, because he received 3.8 million fewer votes than in 2022 and finished behind Bolsonaro in the first round. Supporters of other candidates, null-vote voters, and abstainers can now determine the winner.

The campaign’s approach appeared in personal conversations. Naiara Boroni persuaded her grandmother, who had not voted. Nikolas Domingues persuaded a cousin who had supported a candidate who finished fourth. Dance teacher Jodersson Diego said he changed the mind of a student who had voted for Flávio Bolsonaro.

The numbers make these efforts important. Abstention reached 21%, and the first-round gap was under 2%. Lula’s challenge is turning potential sympathy into actual votes, especially among lower-income, less-educated, and older voters. There is no guarantee he can mobilise them, but success would directly threaten Bolsonaro’s narrow advantage.

Minas Gerais matters because it has the country’s second-largest electorate after São Paulo and has historically predicted presidential winners. The article says no candidate has ever won nationally without carrying the state. That record makes its voters especially important in a close national contest.

The state also contains a major turnout problem. Eight of the ten cities with the highest abstention rates are in Minas Gerais. Lula finished almost five percentage points behind Bolsonaro there, so his campaign must both reduce abstention and recover support. His final rally was held in Belo Horizonte, the state capital, as was Bolsonaro’s scheduled final event.

The state therefore combines electoral weight, symbolic importance, and room for movement. Political scientists said Lula could win if his voters turned out, but there was no guarantee. Bolsonaro’s allies also worked to keep mobilisation high, showing that both campaigns viewed Minas Gerais as central to the runoff.

The previous election left a serious political backdrop. Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, lost the 2022 runoff to Lula and later tried to stage a coup. The attempt failed after the heads of two of Brazil’s three armed forces refused to join him. The article presents this history as part of the stakes surrounding the new contest.

Jair Bolsonaro was serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest when he chose his eldest son to stand in his place. Flávio Bolsonaro said he would pardon his father if elected and receive the presidential sash from him. That promise linked the current campaign directly to the earlier crisis.

As a result, Lula’s supporters framed the election as a defence of rights against a return of the far right. Student Ester Nascimento said she opposed letting the far right take power again. The runoff therefore carried institutional and democratic consequences, not only a change of president.

Lula’s campaign changed how it communicated online. The team overhauled its digital strategy after advice from young, digitally native politicians. Lula, who is 81 and does not even own a mobile phone, began recording selfie videos. The goal was to speak more directly in the fast-moving online spaces used by younger supporters.

Millions joined a WhatsApp channel called Lula’s Army. Congressman André Janones sent dozens of daily instructions explaining how to make pro-Lula content go viral. This gave supporters a coordinated way to produce and circulate messages, rather than leaving online campaigning entirely to professional staff.

The tactic complemented street-level mobilisation. Young people organised large protests across Brazil, and student Ester Nascimento described feeling obliged to make her voice heard. Together, digital coordination and youth activism helped Lula seek a comeback. The campaign still needed to convert enthusiasm into turnout, especially among voters who had stayed home.

In a two-round presidential system, the first vote narrows the field, and the leading candidates face each other again when the contest remains unsettled. This creates a second opportunity for voters who supported eliminated candidates, cast null votes, or did not participate. The final result depends on both preference changes and turnout.

Here, Bolsonaro led the first round by less than 2%, while abstention reached 21%. Lula’s supporters believed many nonvoters belonged to groups that generally favoured him. A small share of these citizens returning to the polls could therefore erase Bolsonaro’s lead. Conversely, continued abstention could preserve it.

The campaigns acted accordingly. Lula’s allies persuaded relatives, students, and other voters to switch or participate. Bolsonaro’s supporters urged people not to assume victory and to keep requesting votes. Polls showed the gap narrowing until the race was nearly tied, but analysts still warned that turnout was not guaranteed.