What is at risk across the Amazon if Bolsonaro wins

The central risk is faster forest loss in Brazil, which contains about 60% of the Amazon. Scientists warn that reaching roughly 25% deforestation could transform the continuous rainforest into savanna. That would damage biodiversity and weaken the region’s role in regulating the climate.

Flávio Bolsonaro has said he would draw inspiration from his father’s government and make environmental rules more flexible. By contrast, Lula’s policies strengthened monitoring, inspections, fines, embargoes, and restrictions on public credit. Those tools helped bring deforestation down during his earlier administrations and again after his return in 2023.

The article reports that deforestation fell nearly 70% in 2024 compared with the same month in 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro was president. Experts consulted by La Silla expect a Flávio Bolsonaro government to accelerate the process toward the 25% threshold. Brazil’s choices would also affect regional cooperation and international efforts against environmental crime.

The Amazon rainforest is the vast, continuous tropical forest ecosystem spread across the Amazon region. It is important because it supports exceptional biodiversity, stores carbon, and helps regulate atmospheric conditions. The article focuses especially on the danger that severe deforestation could change the forest into savanna.

Brazil’s share matters because it covers about 60% of this major ecosystem. In Brazil, the president strongly shapes deforestation levels through environmental enforcement, land-use policy, public financing, and international leadership. This makes national elections relevant far beyond Brazil’s borders.

Lula’s governments reduced deforestation through a policy involving 19 ministries, satellite monitoring, inspections, and penalties. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed more flexible application of environmental rules and greater support for large-scale agribusiness. The contrasting approaches could therefore affect conservation across the wider Amazon and regional cooperation to protect it.

Lula’s administrations produced Brazil’s sharpest long-term reduction in Amazon deforestation described in the article. Rates fell from more than 25,000 square kilometers in 2003 to slightly above 4,500 square kilometers in 2012. Dilma Rousseff continued those policies after Lula’s first administrations.

The comparison with the Bolsonaro era is especially clear in recent monthly data. After Lula returned to office in 2023, Amazon deforestation in August 2024 was the lowest in six years. In 2024, it was nearly 70% lower than in the same month of 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro was president.

The first half of 2026 brought Brazil’s lowest figure of the decade, and Carlos Nobre said the full-year result might break the satellite-measurement record dating back to 1988. These figures show a strong policy contrast, although the article does not provide one single annual Bolsonaro-era total for direct comparison.

The 25% threshold matters because the Amazon depends on a large, connected forest system. Scientists Johan Rockström and Carlos Nobre warn that extensive clearing could destabilize that system. The article presents this as a risk of the rainforest becoming a savanna, with major consequences for biodiversity and climate.

A forest acts as a carbon sink when it absorbs more carbon dioxide than it releases. If deforestation and degradation become too extensive, the remaining forest may absorb less carbon while damaged vegetation and fires release more. The article links this possible shift to a change from absorbing carbon to emitting gases that warm the atmosphere.

The threshold is therefore more than a simple percentage. It signals a possible change in how the ecosystem functions. The article does not claim that reaching exactly 25% guarantees an immediate transformation, but warns that approaching it could make the Amazon’s climate role far more dangerous.

Brazil’s prevention system connects information with enforcement. A policy launched by Lula’s government in 2004 coordinates 19 ministries. Daily alerts identify risks of deforestation, degradation, and fires, allowing Ibama, police, armed forces, and courts to respond.

The mechanism is practical. Satellite monitoring can reveal where cattle are being established on cleared land. Ibama can then send workers, arrest responsible people, issue fines, embargo areas, destroy machinery, and block access to public credit. Between 2023 and 2024, Bndes stopped more than 127 million dollars in loans to rural producers on illegally deforested land.

These measures raise the legal and financial cost of clearing forest. They also connect environmental evidence to policing and banking decisions. The article reports that Ibama had a 367-million-dollar budget in 2025. Strong enforcement can therefore reduce incentives to clear land, while weaker rules could undermine the system.

Forest loss is driven by economic activity that converts standing forest into productive land. According to Carlos Nobre, about 90% of deforestation is illegal and connected to cattle ranching and soybean farming, especially production destined for China. Brazilian Amazon properties must legally preserve at least 80% of their forest.

The article also describes newer criminal pressures. Paulo Barreto reported that groups including Comando Vermelho and the Primeiro Comando da Capital profit from gold and drug trafficking. They increasingly launder those earnings by buying land and cattle, which can encourage additional clearing and land speculation.

This means deforestation is not caused by one actor alone. Farmers, illegal land grabbers, commodity markets, and criminal networks can interact. The article notes that forest loss in Brazil has not traditionally been tied to armed groups as it is in Colombia, but organized crime is becoming more involved in land and livestock. Strong monitoring and financial controls are therefore important.

The Amazon matters to the global climate because its living forest stores and absorbs carbon. A carbon sink takes in more carbon dioxide than it releases, helping limit the buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. The article describes the Amazon as one of the largest such sinks in the world.

Deforestation changes that balance. Clearing and degrading forest reduce the area that can absorb carbon. At the same time, damaged vegetation and fires can release gases that warm the atmosphere. Scientists warn that if deforestation reaches roughly 25%, the continuous rainforest could shift toward savanna and lose its current climate function.

This makes forest protection a global issue, not only a Brazilian one. Lula’s monitoring and enforcement policies produced major reductions in deforestation. A government favoring looser environmental rules could reverse progress, accelerate forest loss, and move the Amazon closer to becoming a source rather than a sink of warming gases.