BP Fact-Check: Number of Homeless People Nearly Doubled During Lula's Government

Brazil’s official records show a sharp rise in people registered as living on the streets. In the final year of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, 2022, CadÚnico listed 198.7 thousand people in that situation. By July 2026, the figure had reached 392.4 thousand.

The comparison uses CadÚnico, the federal government’s main tool for estimating the homeless population. It records people who enter the social-program system. The increase therefore reflects the number registered, not necessarily a complete count of every person without a home.

The change adds 193.6 thousand registered people over the period. Government supporters say the rise may partly result from a more active search for homeless people. That effort brought more people into the database, making the official figure much larger.

The increase was substantial by both measures used in the report. CadÚnico records rose from 198.7 thousand people in 2022 to 392.4 thousand in July 2026. That produced a 97.4% increase, leaving the later total just short of twice the earlier figure.

The absolute change was 193.6 thousand people. This number shows how many additional people appeared in the official records, while the percentage shows the size of the increase compared with the 2022 base. Together, they make the scale easier to understand.

These figures describe registered people, not necessarily every homeless person in Brazil. The government says more active outreach helped include people in CadÚnico. As a result, the increase may reflect both changes in homelessness and broader registration coverage.

CadÚnico is the Cadastro Único para Programas Sociais, or Single Registry for Social Programs. It is the main mechanism the federal government uses to estimate how many people are living without a home. The registry matters because it creates an official count that can be compared across different periods.

For example, CadÚnico recorded 198.7 thousand homeless people in 2022 and 392.4 thousand in July 2026. These figures come from people registered in the system. They are not presented as a direct census of every person living on the streets.

The registry also connects identification with social assistance. The government said it would use active searches to expand homeless people’s inclusion in CadÚnico. That can improve access to programs while also increasing the number visible in official statistics. Its totals must therefore be read alongside registration practices.

A near-doubling of records does not automatically prove that the real homeless population doubled by the same amount. CadÚnico measures people who were registered, so its total depends partly on how successfully the government finds and includes them. It is an official indicator, but not necessarily a complete census.

The article gives a concrete explanation for this distinction. Government supporters say the administration conducted a more active search for homeless people. The government portal described active outreach to expand their inclusion in CadÚnico. More outreach can bring previously unregistered people into the figures.

The current data still show a major increase in recorded homelessness: from 198.7 thousand in 2022 to 392.4 thousand in July 2026. The result may combine actual population changes with improved coverage. Understanding both factors is important before treating the registration increase as an identical population increase.

A government’s search strategy can change the statistics by reaching people who were previously missing from the registry. Homeless people may not approach public offices or know how to enroll. Officials who actively look for them can identify and register more people in the same period.

The article describes this as a government effort to expand inclusion in CadÚnico. Its portal says active searches would be carried out through an emergency program designed to strengthen CadÚnico services within Brazil’s social-assistance system. Each newly registered person then appears in the official count.

That mechanism helps explain why records rose from 198.7 thousand in 2022 to 392.4 thousand in July 2026. The increase is real in the database, but it may reflect improved coverage as well as changing living conditions. Active registration can therefore make the official problem more visible.

Registering homeless people matters because CadÚnico is the main system used to connect people with Brazil’s social programs. The article describes it as the mechanism used to register people living on the streets. Inclusion gives the government an official way to identify this population and organize assistance.

The government explicitly said it would carry out active searches to broaden homeless people’s inclusion in the registry. That approach is important because people without stable housing may otherwise remain outside normal registration efforts. Once recorded, they become visible within the system used for social-program access.

The same process affects public statistics. As more people are registered, the official estimate can rise, as it did from 198.7 thousand in 2022 to 392.4 thousand in July 2026. Registration therefore serves two purposes: connecting people to assistance and improving government visibility of homelessness.

Measuring homelessness is difficult because official systems usually depend on finding and registering people. Someone without a permanent address may move frequently, sleep in different places, or avoid public offices. That makes a single count vulnerable to missed people and changing coverage. The article does not detail every measurement challenge, but it shows that registration practices matter.

CadÚnico illustrates the problem. It is the federal government’s main mechanism for estimating homelessness, yet the government said it needed active searches to expand inclusion. Officials therefore went beyond relying only on people who were already visible to the social-assistance system.

The difference appears in the figures. CadÚnico listed 198.7 thousand people in 2022 and 392.4 thousand in July 2026. The increase may reflect more people living without homes, more successful registration, or both. Better outreach can improve future estimates while also changing the recorded total.