What the changing face of Melbourne’s eastern suburbs could mean for Victoria’s state election

Demographic churn describes population change caused by people moving into, out of and within an area. Over time, this can alter the community’s cultural mix, housing density and political preferences. It matters because electorates that once seemed safely aligned with one party can become competitive.

In Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, Chinese migrants helped reshape places such as Box Hill. Many settled there because it offered opportunity and affordable housing. Box Hill now has Chinese ancestry among 46.6% of constituents. Glen Waverley, Ringwood and Bayswater also have large Chinese-Australian communities.

Kos Samaras says these suburbs changed from Liberal strongholds filled with aspirational voters into denser, more diverse and marginal seats. This “demographic churn” has benefited Labor in recent elections. However, Samaras believes Labor’s unpopularity could produce a correction, making the changed suburbs important battlegrounds in the state election.

Five seats in Melbourne’s east are identified as essential to a Coalition victory: Box Hill, Glen Waverley, Ashwood, Ringwood and Bayswater. They matter because the Coalition must win them back to rebuild its path to government. These electorates are not safely held by Labor, but neither are they guaranteed Coalition gains.

Labor currently holds all five on two-party-preferred margins between 3.3% in Glen Waverley and 7.5% in Ringwood. Those figures show how much support separates Labor from the opposing party after preferences are distributed. A smaller margin means fewer votes need to change for the result to change.

The Coalition needs to win 16 seats to govern in its own right. The eastern seats therefore combine strategic importance with electoral closeness. Local concerns about crime, costs, infrastructure, schools, hospitals and debt may influence whether voters maintain Labor’s lead or shift toward the Coalition.

Marginal seats can decide government because elections are won seat by seat, not simply by counting a statewide vote. A party may gain enough support overall but still fall short of the seats needed to govern. Small shifts in closely contested electorates can therefore determine who controls parliament.

The five eastern seats are especially important because Labor holds them by margins of 3.3% to 7.5%. If enough voters move from Labor to the Coalition, the Coalition could capture several seats. The article identifies these electorates as seats the Liberal Party must win back, while 16 seats are needed for a majority government.

This makes local issues nationally significant within Victoria. Concerns about public safety, business costs, debt, schools, hospitals and major infrastructure could affect the result. Kos Samaras says demographic change made the area marginal, but Labor’s unpopularity could now produce a political “correction.”

Chinese-Australian voters matter because they form a substantial share of the electorate in several marginal eastern suburbs. Box Hill has Chinese ancestry among 46.6% of constituents, while Glen Waverley, Ringwood and Bayswater each have about a third. In close contests, a large community with shared concerns can influence the result.

Politicians are responding with targeted outreach. Jing Qi found politicians participating in cultural festivals and discussing public safety and local infrastructure on RedNote, a Chinese social media platform. The Coalition also announced funding for a childcare centre in Bayswater. A viral pothole near a Labor campaign sign showed how local issues can spread through that network.

These voters are not presented as a single political bloc. Tom Zheng describes himself as a swing voter and has not decided how to vote. His concerns include theft, safety, high labour costs and rent. Winning trust may require parties to address practical local problems rather than rely only on identity or symbolism.

Voters in these suburbs are weighing immediate household and community concerns against broader judgments about government performance. Public safety is prominent among Chinese Australians, while small-business owners face high labour costs and rents. Schools and hospitals also matter, as do questions about economic management and the state’s growing debt.

Tom Zheng says thefts and other incidents have made his Box Hill community feel unsafe, and Leon Chan has added security after attempted break-ins near his children’s play centre. By contrast, John West lists good schools and hospitals as his top concerns, although he criticises Labor’s debt. Zheng is also worried that financial demands could force his restaurant to close.

The evidence is mixed. Victoria’s crime rate fell 3.8% in the year to 30 June, and property crime also decreased, but rates remain significantly higher than at the previous election. Meanwhile, state debt is expected to reach $199bn, giving voters a reason to question Labor’s economic management.

If the Coalition wins enough of these marginal seats, it could gain the numbers required to form a government without relying on another party. The article says the Coalition needs 16 seats to govern in its own right. That would give it control over policy, spending and the direction of major infrastructure projects.

The clearest project consequence concerns the Suburban Rail Loop, Labor’s flagship infrastructure project. The Coalition has promised to pause and review it if elected. Labor has invested heavily in the eastern suburbs through level crossing removals, the SRL and the North East Link, so a change of government could alter the pace or priorities of that investment.

The article does not specify whether the Coalition would cancel the SRL or what a review would recommend. It establishes that the project could be paused and examined. The election’s result in these seats may therefore affect both Victoria’s government and the future direction of major suburban transport works.

A two-party-preferred vote measures the final share of votes for each of the two major competing parties after preferences from other candidates are distributed. It is useful because Victorian elections include candidates beyond the main parties. The measure reduces the contest to the two leading sides and shows who would win under that final distribution.

For example, the article reports that Labor holds the eastern seats by two-party-preferred margins. Glen Waverley has the narrowest margin, 3.3%, while Ringwood has the largest listed margin, 7.5%. These percentages describe Labor’s lead over the opposing side, not Labor’s total first-preference vote.

The measure helps analysts compare seat strength and identify electorates that could change hands. A 3.3% margin means a smaller swing is needed than a 7.5% margin. Because the Coalition needs 16 seats to govern alone, these margins help show why the eastern electorates are strategically important.