South Africa: Dwindling support for ANC amid service delivery chaos

Several warning signs point to declining ANC support before the municipal elections. Recent polls show dwindling support. The party also won just over 40 per cent in the 2024 national vote, forcing it into a coalition government. Its share had already fallen below 50 per cent in the 2021 municipal elections.

Local anger is especially visible in townships near Johannesburg. In Katlehong, 180 households have depended on illegal electricity connections for more than 20 years. In Alexandra, refuse remains uncollected, sewage runs through streets, and many residents lack running water. Some people say they will not vote, while others plan to choose the Democratic Alliance.

The ANC is also campaigning weakly. Less than two weeks before polling, it had not chosen its candidate in Johannesburg. Analysts expect many councils to produce no outright winner, creating coalitions and making the election a test of the ANC’s support base before 2029.

Municipal elections are votes for local councils. These councils govern municipalities, which are responsible for managing many services close to people’s homes. In practice, that includes water, electricity, refuse collection, sewage systems, roads, and other local infrastructure. The source focuses on 257 councils up for election.

These responsibilities matter because service failures are immediately visible. In Alexandra, uncollected rubbish piles up and sewage flows down the street. Many residents also lack running water. In Katlehong, 180 households have used illegal electricity connections for more than 20 years. Such conditions can make residents judge the governing party by their everyday living conditions.

The elections therefore test more than party popularity. They show whether residents trust local government to provide basic services. Analysts say the results will help parties understand their support bases before the 2029 national election. The source does not list every legal council responsibility, but it clearly links municipalities with local service delivery.

The ANC’s decline is large in both percentage and political terms. It won nearly 70 per cent of the national vote in 2004. By 2024, it won just over 40 per cent. Using the article’s rounded figures, that is a fall of about 30 percentage points. The party consequently had to accept a coalition government.

The decline was already clear locally. In the 2021 municipal elections, the ANC won 46 per cent and fell below 50 per cent for the first time. It retained control of nearly half the municipalities, but no longer had the same nationwide dominance. The figures show a long movement away from the party’s earlier majority.

This change matters because municipal elections may deepen or confirm the trend. Residents cite unreliable services, corruption, and mismanagement. Some former ANC supporters now reject the party, while others support the DA or abstain. Analysts expect coalition contests in many municipalities, creating a more fragmented political landscape before 2029.

Water, electricity, waste collection, sewage, and infrastructure are tangible signs of government performance. When these services fail, residents experience the failure every day. That can weaken trust in the governing party, especially when promises are repeated but conditions do not improve. The article links disillusionment to mismanagement, corruption, and poor service delivery.

Katlehong shows the mechanism clearly. About 180 households have relied on illegal electricity connections for more than 20 years. Community leader Lesiba Rankapole said, “no electricity, no vote.” In Alexandra, uncollected refuse and sewage affect streets, while many residents lack running water. Resident Sipho Mandala said repeated disappointment made him distrust the government.

The political result can take several forms. Residents may abstain, choose the DA, or still vote ANC because of its liberation history. If dissatisfaction spreads, the ANC may lose outright majorities. That can produce fragile coalitions, potentially making service management even harder and reinforcing public frustration.

The ANC has remained dominant because it is closely associated with South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle. The article calls Nelson Mandela a jailed liberation hero who became president. That history gives the party an enduring emotional and political connection with many voters. In 2004, the ANC won nearly 70 per cent of the national vote.

That loyalty can survive serious local dissatisfaction. A man in Katlehong was angry while digging to reach a blocked sewage pipe. Yet he said he would still vote ANC if he reached a voting station, describing it as the party of liberation. This contrasts with residents who say they were “born ANC” but no longer want to hear about the party because they are suffering.

The historic advantage is weakening, however. The ANC won 46 per cent in the 2021 municipal elections and just over 40 per cent nationally in 2024. Its liberation legacy still matters, but service failures, corruption, and mismanagement are pushing some voters toward abstention or opposition parties.

Voters dissatisfied with the ANC are not limited to one response. They can support an opposition party, choose another political organisation, or abstain from voting. These choices send different signals. A vote for a rival transfers support directly, while abstention shows disengagement but does not give another party a vote.

The article gives concrete examples. Patrick Saohatse, a maintenance worker in Alexandra, said he would vote for the Democratic Alliance. The DA already governs Cape Town and campaigns against ANC service failures and mismanagement. In Katlehong, community leader Lesiba Rankapole said residents had collectively decided, “no electricity, no vote.” Other residents expressed distrust without naming a preferred alternative.

The choice may shape control of municipalities. If enough voters shift away from the ANC or stay home, no party may win a majority. Analysts expect this in many councils. The result could be a DA-led, ANC-led, or broader coalition, though the article does not predict particular outcomes.

Election results become fragmented when voters divide their support among several parties and no party wins more than half the seats or votes needed to govern alone. Parties then negotiate coalitions to control councils. The article’s analysts say this is likely in many municipalities, including contests where the ANC’s support has weakened.

A coalition requires parties to cooperate on leadership and decisions. If their agreements are fragile, control can become unstable. Disputes may delay choices, weaken accountability, or make it harder to maintain consistent management. The article connects fragile coalitions with further undermining service delivery, though it does not describe a specific coalition breakdown.

This creates a difficult cycle. Poor services encourage voters to leave the governing party. Fragmented results then produce coalitions that may struggle to manage those services. The municipal elections will show each party’s support base before the 2029 national poll. Johannesburg is especially important because it has more than 4.8 million people and intense competition.