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Defence & Security25 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

Tehran threatens strikes on energy, civilian targets, and nuclear escalation if attacked

The brief

Iran’s threatened target list goes far beyond military sites. Tehran has warned that it could strike American bases and warships, but also energy infrastructure, natural gas pipelines, airports, and other civilian facilities across the Persian Gulf. That expansion matters because these systems support daily life, trade, travel, and regional economies. The article gives several examples of infrastructure already hit during the most recent fighting. Energy and industrial facilities in the UAE were damaged, while gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain were also struck. Iran is reportedly considering broader retaliation if fighting resumes. The warnings are meant to deter another US or Israeli campaign by raising the expected cost. They also create greater danger for civilians and neighboring states. Iran’s foreign minister warned that new attacks could threaten civilian lives, regional well-being, and the global economy.

01

What targets is Iran threatening to strike if the United States or Israel attacks it?

Iran’s threatened target list goes far beyond military sites. Tehran has warned that it could strike American bases and warships, but also energy infrastructure, natural gas pipelines, airports, and other civilian facilities across the Persian Gulf. That expansion matters because these systems support daily life, trade, travel, and regional economies.

The article gives several examples of infrastructure already hit during the most recent fighting. Energy and industrial facilities in the UAE were damaged, while gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain were also struck. Iran is reportedly considering broader retaliation if fighting resumes.

The warnings are meant to deter another US or Israeli campaign by raising the expected cost. They also create greater danger for civilians and neighboring states. Iran’s foreign minister warned that new attacks could threaten civilian lives, regional well-being, and the global economy.

02

What is nuclear escalation, and why would a threat to use nuclear weapons represent a major change in this conflict?

Nuclear escalation is the process of introducing nuclear threats, preparations, or use into a conflict. Nuclear weapons can cause vastly wider destruction than conventional missiles and drones. A threat to use them therefore changes the conflict’s basic danger, because it raises the possible human, political, and environmental consequences for Iran, its enemies, and neighboring states.

The article reports that Mohammad-Saleh Jokar urged Iran’s authorities to permit deterrent weapons, including nuclear weapons, if the United States attacked. He also called for suspending Iran’s cooperation with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. These statements go beyond Iran’s stated conventional retaliation plans.

The article does not report that Iran has used a nuclear weapon. It describes a political demand and a warning. Even so, such language could make future attacks harder to control, intensify international pressure, and increase the risk that a regional conflict widens.

03

How large are Iran's reported missile and drone stockpiles, and why do those weapons matter for deterrence?

Iran’s reported arsenal is enormous but not unlimited. Analysts cited by The Wall Street Journal estimate that Iran holds hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles. The article also says Iran retains significant numbers of drones, despite recent operations and a succeeding blockade. Iran has reportedly resumed missile production in underground facilities.

These weapons matter because deterrence depends on the ability to impose costs after an attack. Missiles and drones can threaten military bases, warships, energy sites, airports, and other infrastructure. Their large numbers may help Iran convince opponents that an attack would trigger sustained retaliation rather than a single strike.

The stockpile is under pressure. The Pentagon said up to 90% of Iran’s drones, missiles, and naval industry was destroyed in recent operations. Analysts nevertheless say Tehran may expand retaliation. They also warn Iran could overreach if it spends its remaining weapons too quickly.

04

What could happen to energy supplies, civilian life, and the global economy if Iran attacks pipelines, gas facilities, airports, or other civilian infrastructure?

Civilian infrastructure connects economies and everyday life. Pipelines and gas facilities supply energy, airports move people and goods, and industrial sites support employment and production. Attacking them could interrupt fuel supplies, travel, communications, and business activity. Damage in one Gulf country could also affect markets and neighboring states.

The article reports that energy and industrial facilities in the UAE were hit during the most recent fighting. Gas plants and airports in Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain were also targeted. Iran has threatened to cause even more pain in a renewed campaign, while its foreign minister warned of risks to civilian lives and the global economy.

The consequences would depend on the scale and duration of attacks. Gulf states could face outages, disruption, and new security pressure. Retaliatory strikes could damage Iran’s own infrastructure as well. One analyst warned that attacking regional energy and internet systems could lead to reciprocal losses for Iran.

05

What is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and what would Iran's withdrawal or suspension of cooperation signal to other countries?

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, is an international agreement designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, support peaceful nuclear cooperation, and advance disarmament. Countries that join accept obligations connected to nuclear activities and international verification. It is a central framework for limiting nuclear proliferation.

The article reports that Mohammad-Saleh Jokar called for suspending Iran’s cooperation with the treaty if the United States attacked. That proposal appeared alongside his call to permit deterrent weapons, including nuclear weapons. Together, those steps would link an attack directly to a major change in Iran’s nuclear posture.

Such a move would signal that military pressure had pushed Iran away from existing nuclear restraints. It could alarm neighboring Gulf states, intensify disputes with the United States and Israel, and increase demands for diplomatic action. The article does not say Iran has withdrawn or suspended cooperation; it reports the threat and proposal.

06

Which countries and organizations are central to this confrontation, and what roles do Iran's government, the IRGC, the United States, Israel, and Gulf states play?

Iran’s government is issuing threats and using diplomacy to warn against renewed attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, is central to planning and managing retaliation, but the article also warns that it could overextend Iran’s remaining arsenal. The United States is both a possible attacker and a regional military power with bases, warships, and allies.

Israel is preparing for possible strikes against Iran, while US President Donald Trump has warned that failure to reach an agreement could lead to an attack after the early-November midterm elections. Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, have hosted US forces or contain infrastructure Iran has threatened to hit.

These roles overlap and create escalation risks. Iran says countries allowing US use of their territory or airspace could face a harsh response. The United States and Israel seek security and leverage, while Gulf states face pressure from both sides. Recent strikes already damaged regional military, energy, industrial, and airport facilities.

07

How does deterrence work in international politics, and why can threatening retaliation both prevent an attack and increase the risk of a wider war?

Deterrence is the effort to prevent an attack by convincing an opponent that retaliation would cost more than the expected benefit. It depends on capability, credible threats, and communication. Iran is trying to show that it can impose immediate and sustained costs on US, Israeli, and regional interests, even after suffering major military losses.

The mechanism is straightforward. Iran could use missiles and drones against bases, warships, energy systems, airports, and other infrastructure. Opponents may hesitate if they expect serious damage. But threats against civilian targets can also make retaliation politically unavoidable. One analyst said Iran could badly damage regional energy and internet infrastructure, but might then lose its own in reciprocal attacks.

That creates a dangerous cycle. Each side may interpret preparations as proof of hostile intent and respond before the other strikes. Iran’s shrinking stockpile limits its choices, while pressured interceptor supplies in Israel and Gulf states could increase vulnerability. Deterrence may prevent an attack, yet overreach could widen the war.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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