After 12 years, crime may bring Labor undone. How have rising rates affected your suburb?

Victoria’s overall crime rate rose sharply over the period described. It moved from fewer than 5,000 criminal incidents per 100,000 people in the months before the 2022 election to more than 6,700 by mid-2025. The state rate reached a record high in 2025. This matters because crime has become a major political issue for the government.

The article gives a broad local picture, rather than results for one named suburb. In more than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities, aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults reached their highest levels in a decade during the past two years. In 20 of Melbourne’s 32 local government areas, residential aggravated burglaries reached a decade high.

A suburb-by-suburb comparison is available through the article’s interactive tool. It shows each area’s overall rate over the past decade, its position against the state, and rates for aggravated burglary, car theft, assault and other offences. Without a suburb name or tool result, the article cannot provide a more precise local ranking.

The article identifies aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults as the key offences reaching unusually high levels. It does not rank them by which rose most sharply. Instead, it reports that their rates reached the highest levels in a decade during the past two years across many parts of Victoria.

The pattern was widespread. More than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities recorded decade-high rates for aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults. Residential aggravated burglaries were especially prominent: they reached their highest level in the past decade in 20 of Melbourne’s 32 local government areas.

These figures show that the increase was not confined to one suburb or one type of community. They also help explain the political pressure on Labor, especially after high-profile home invasions and car thefts. However, the article does not provide separate statewide percentage increases for each offence, so it cannot establish which crime rose fastest.

The article reports aggravated burglary figures but does not define the offence. In established criminal-law usage, burglary generally means entering a building as a trespasser, usually intending to steal or commit another serious offence. An aggravated burglary adds a serious aggravating feature, commonly that the offender is armed, carries an offensive weapon, or threatens or uses violence.

The distinction is therefore about the danger attached to the unlawful entry. An ordinary burglary can involve unlawful entry and intended offending without the additional weapon or violence element. An aggravated burglary indicates a greater risk to people inside and usually attracts more serious treatment under criminal law. Exact legal wording depends on the jurisdiction and offence provision.

In Victoria, the article tracks residential aggravated burglaries separately from overall crime. It reports decade-high levels in 20 of Melbourne’s 32 local government areas during the past two years. That pattern contributed to pressure on the government over home invasions and public safety.

Crime has been a chronic political problem for Labor across its 12 years in Victoria. The party faced rising voter anxiety while crime rates climbed, and the issue became tied to its core responsibility of keeping people safe. Across three terms, three premiers repeatedly changed direction, moving from progressive policies to blunt crackdowns.

Bail policy shows the dilemma. After the 2017 Bourke Street attack, Daniel Andrews introduced a strict reverse-onus test. The policy increased remand, prison numbers and costs, and disproportionately affected women and Indigenous Victorians. After Veronica Nelson’s death and a coroner’s condemnation, Labor loosened the rules in 2023. In 2025, Jacinta Allan tightened them again under pressure over youth crime.

That cycle created criticism from researchers and legal advocates, who said Labor was competing in a race to the bottom rather than following evidence-based practice. Meanwhile, crime reached a record high in 2025. The article suggests law and order could strongly influence the November 28 election.

Bail is the temporary release of an accused person while their case moves through court. A person on bail remains in the community, usually subject to conditions such as reporting, residence rules or restrictions on contact. Bail does not decide guilt. It exists before a final court outcome.

When an accused person is held on remand, they stay in custody while awaiting trial, a hearing or sentencing. They are legally unconvicted at that stage. Victoria’s 2017 reverse-onus laws changed who had to justify release. Instead of police needing to show why bail should be denied, suspected offenders had to give a compelling reason for release.

The change sharply increased the use of remand. The share of prisoners on remand rose from 30.9 per cent in 2017 to 44.4 per cent in 2022. After reforms in 2023, it fell, then rose again to 40.8 per cent by mid-2025 following another tightening of bail rules.

Victoria’s 2017 reverse-onus bail laws made release harder. They shifted the burden onto suspected offenders, who had to give a compelling reason for bail. More people were therefore held in prison on remand, even though they had not been convicted. The prison population grew, along with the cost of housing inmates.

The share of prisoners on remand rose from 30.9 per cent in 2017 to 44.4 per cent by 2022. The policy disproportionately affected women and Indigenous Victorians. It also created tension over the large number of untried people in custody. Veronica Nelson’s death in 2020, after remand for a minor shoplifting offence, exposed the consequences.

The government later unwound the laws, and remand levels fell. After Jacinta Allan tightened bail again in March 2025, the rate rose to 40.8 per cent by mid-year. Children in detention also increased rapidly. The article presents this reversal as an unresolved policy and political problem.

A rate per 100,000 people expresses recorded crime relative to population size. The basic calculation is the number of recorded offences divided by the population, multiplied by 100,000. This allows a large city, small council area and the state to be compared more fairly than using raw totals alone.

For example, if an area records 500 offences among 100,000 residents, its rate is 500 per 100,000. The article uses this measure when describing Victoria’s rise from fewer than 5,000 criminal incidents per 100,000 people before the 2022 election to more than 6,700 by mid-2025. It also compares local areas with the state.

A recorded rate measures incidents known to authorities, not every offence that occurred. It can rise when victims report more crimes, police record incidents differently, or population estimates change. Better reporting can therefore increase the recorded rate even when actual offending rises less, or does not rise equally. The article does not discuss these measurement effects.