Analysis: Trump's ally seeks to lead South America's giant – the election will determine the fate of the Amazon rainforest

Brazil is holding a presidential election runoff between the incumbent left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party. The contest matters because both candidates offer sharply different approaches to security, environmental protection, and foreign policy.

Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest over an alleged coup attempt. Lula previously served prison time for corruption and money laundering, but that conviction was later annulled. Flávio has promised to pardon his father if elected.

The first round in early October was extremely close. Flávio received about 47 percent of the vote, while Lula received about 45 percent. Recent polls put them practically level. In the final debate, Lula pressured Bolsonaro on corruption and security, but the result remained uncertain.

The Amazon rainforest is a vast tropical forest and river basin in South America. It contains extraordinary biodiversity, stores large amounts of carbon, and helps move water through the atmosphere. Its destruction therefore affects climate and ecosystems far beyond Brazil. The article states that Amazon’s fate is also being decided in Brazil’s election.

Brazil controls the largest share of the forest and much of the government action that protects or exposes it. A president can strengthen enforcement against illegal logging, regulate agriculture and mining, and determine how quickly environmental agencies respond. These choices influence whether forest loss falls or accelerates.

Under Lula, Amazon deforestation and logging have declined substantially. The national space research institute recorded the smallest annual forest loss in nearly four decades. Yet illegal logging, expanding farming and mining, and fires still threaten the forest. A Bolsonaro victory would make clearing easier.

Brazil contains 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest, giving its government an unusually large role in the forest’s future. The scale matters because decisions made in Brasília affect a huge part of a globally important ecosystem, not merely a local conservation area.

During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, approximately 4.5 million hectares of Amazon forest were cleared. The article compares that area with Denmark’s territory, making the loss easier to understand. Clearing can result from illegal logging and from expanding agriculture or mining, all of which the article identifies as continuing threats.

The current direction is less destructive than during Bolsonaro’s period. Under Lula, deforestation fell substantially, and the latest annual figure was the lowest in almost four decades. However, the forest is not safe. Flávio Bolsonaro would allow logging on easier terms, so the election could change the recent downward trend.

The candidates differ most clearly on the Amazon, public security, and foreign policy. Under Lula, deforestation has fallen significantly, while Flávio Bolsonaro would permit logging on easier terms. The choice could therefore determine whether Brazil continues reducing forest loss or loosens restrictions.

On security, Bolsonaro promises a hard-line response to drug-related gang violence. His proposals include lowering criminal responsibility to age 14, mass arrests, and huge prisons. He points to measures associated with El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. Lula is known for reducing poverty, but voters criticize him for failing to curb violent crime.

Bolsonaro would also move Brazil closer to the United States. He has proposed joining a Trump-backed security community designed to fight South American drug cartels. Lula’s campaign instead relies on his record against poverty and on support from younger, older, and currently inactive voters.

Winning the presidency does not guarantee easy lawmaking. If Congress is dominated by right-wing and center-right parties, a president may struggle to pass budgets, security reforms, environmental rules, or other major promises. Executive power would still matter, but legislation and political support could be difficult to secure.

The article describes a cross-party Bible bloc made up of neo-Pentecostal movement members and other conservatives. This group holds considerable power in Brazil’s parliament. Its influence reaches beyond one party, so a president must negotiate with lawmakers who may have different priorities from the government.

Religion makes that challenge especially visible. Neo-Pentecostal voters represent more than one quarter of all voters and generally support conservative values and tougher security policy. Both Lula and Bolsonaro therefore seek their support. A president who ignores this bloc could face resistance even after winning the national vote.

Evangelical political groups shape the campaign because neo-Pentecostal movements have expanded as the Catholic Church has lost ground. More than one quarter of voters belong to this broad constituency, which generally favors conservative values and tougher security policies. Both candidates must therefore seek its support.

Social media has created another battleground. Lula’s supporters accused Meta, Facebook and Instagram’s parent company, of reducing the visibility of Lula campaign accounts while recommending Bolsonaro profiles. Meta denied the allegations. Bolsonaro’s allies, in turn, accused Lula’s campaign of illegal propaganda on WhatsApp.

Foreign leaders have influenced the campaign’s political direction. Trump supports the right across Latin America, and Bolsonaro has proposed closer ties with the United States. Bolsonaro also looks toward Nayib Bukele’s anti-gang model in El Salvador. These connections give the election a wider regional and international context.

The Amazon affects the global climate because its trees store carbon. When forests are cut or burned, some carbon enters the atmosphere, adding to warming. The forest also contains exceptional biodiversity, so destruction removes habitats and can cause species losses beyond Brazil’s borders. The article directly emphasizes that Amazonian destruction affects the whole world.

The forest also influences the water cycle. Trees release water vapor through transpiration, helping generate rainfall and transport moisture across the region. Clearing reduces this recycling and can make conditions hotter and drier. The article identifies agriculture, mining, illegal logging, and fires as continuing pressures on the forest.

Brazil’s election matters because the president controls important enforcement and land-use choices. Lula has overseen sharply lower deforestation, with the smallest annual loss in nearly four decades. Yet the forest remains threatened, and Bolsonaro would permit logging more easily. The global consequences make these national policies internationally important.