Thousands of Israelis fly home to vote in polls: Why Netanyahu's party is concerned

As many as 67,000 Israelis living abroad are expected to return to Israel for the October 27 election. They are travelling because citizens abroad generally cannot vote by post or online. Except for diplomats and a few official emissaries, voters must be physically present in Israel to participate.

The journey can cover thousands of kilometres and last only long enough for a single day at the ballot box. Arrivals at Ben Gurion International Airport included Israelis coming from the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, Azerbaijan and other parts of Asia. Most are paying for their own trips.

Their return matters because the contest is expected to be extremely close. Analysts believe overseas Israelis often favour political change. If many of them vote similarly, their ballots could influence the equivalent of around two parliamentary seats and affect who governs Israel.

The rule means an Israeli living in another country cannot normally participate remotely in the election. A ballot cannot simply be mailed to that voter, and the voter cannot submit it through an online system. Physical presence in Israel is usually required.

That requirement turns voting into a major logistical decision. An Israeli in the United States, Europe, Australia or Asia may need to pay for an international flight, return to Israel and reach a polling station. The article describes people travelling thousands of kilometres, sometimes for a single day at the ballot box.

There are limited exceptions. Diplomats and a few official emissaries can vote under different arrangements, but most citizens abroad cannot. Consequently, thousands are flying home for this election. Their participation is unusual because the rule makes overseas voting depend on money, time and the ability to travel.

A US-based group estimates that as many as 67,000 Israelis will fly to Israel for the October 27 election. About half may come from the United States. Others are expected from Europe, Canada, Australia and other parts of the world. Most travellers are paying for the journeys themselves.

The scale is important because Israel has more than 7.3 million voters, while opinion polls indicate a dead heat. Analysts believe Israelis living abroad tend to favour political change. Their votes could therefore add a meaningful bloc in a contest where a relatively small shift may change the balance between parties.

The article estimates that their influence could equal around two seats. That does not mean they automatically determine the winner. It means their combined votes could help one side gain enough parliamentary representation to affect coalition-building and the eventual governing outcome. Their impact depends on turnout and voting choices.

The article identifies a voting tendency rather than a detailed cause: analysts believe Israelis living abroad generally favour political change. This could make them different from the wider electorate, especially in an election where opinion polls point to a dead heat.

The source does not explain whether this preference comes from their experiences overseas, views about Israel's direction or another factor. It only presents the analysts' assessment. Therefore, the safest conclusion is that overseas Israelis may be more inclined to support parties seeking a change in government or policy.

That tendency matters because thousands are returning at the same time. If they vote for parties opposed to the current political direction, their ballots could shift the balance. The article estimates their combined influence at around two seats, although their actual effect depends on turnout and how they distribute their votes.

Netanyahu's Likud party may be concerned because analysts believe Israelis living abroad tend to favour political change. In a closely contested election, bringing many such voters back could increase support for parties challenging Likud's position. The concern is about the possible electoral effect, not simply the number of travellers.

The article links that concern to allegations surrounding a campaign encouraging Israelis abroad to return. Likud reportedly tried to block the campaign. The campaign's practical mechanism was straightforward: help overseas Israelis overcome the cost and difficulty of travelling so they could be physically present at the ballot box.

The potential stakes are significant. Up to 67,000 returning voters are expected, and their collective influence is estimated at around two seats. If they vote in a similar direction, they could alter the parliamentary balance. That could affect which parties are able to form a governing coalition after the election.

Returning voters who support parties opposed to Netanyahu could strengthen those parties in the final count. The election is expected to be closely contested, with opinion polls pointing to a dead heat. In such a race, additional votes may affect the distribution of parliamentary seats rather than merely change a party's vote share.

The article gives a concrete estimate: overseas Israelis could influence the equivalent of around two seats. Their mechanism of influence is their physical participation. Because most citizens abroad cannot vote remotely, flying home allows ballots that might otherwise not be cast to enter the election result.

The immediate consequence could be a different balance among the parties. That may affect which side can assemble enough support to govern. The article does not predict a winner or give a precise coalition outcome. It establishes that a large returning group could become decisive if its votes favour Netanyahu's opponents.

Tens of thousands of extra voters can matter because parliamentary representation depends on how votes are distributed among parties. Israel has more than 7.3 million voters, but the article describes a race with polls showing a dead heat. A small bloc can therefore change the balance when competing sides are closely matched.

The key mechanism is participation. Most Israelis living abroad cannot vote by mail or online, so their ballots would normally be absent unless they travel to Israel. By returning in person, they add votes to the national result. Analysts estimate that this group could influence the equivalent of around two seats.

Two seats may not sound large compared with the whole parliament, but they can be important in a tight contest. They could help one group or its opponents gain leverage. The article does not say the voters will act as one bloc, so their final impact depends on turnout and party choices.