Muizzu could stir up anti-India campaign again: Former Maldives Minister Abdullah Shahid

In Maldivian politics, “India Out” means campaigning against alleged undue Indian influence in the Maldives. The campaign focused especially on India’s security presence and accused the previous government of allowing military bases through infrastructure projects. It turned foreign policy into a domestic election issue.

Muizzu’s People’s National Congress used this message against President Ibrahim Solih in 2023. Muizzu demanded the removal of Indian Air Force personnel stationed at three locations, including Gan Island and Hanimadhoo Atoll. Those personnel operated aircraft that India had provided to the Maldives.

The campaign helped Muizzu defeat Solih. Relations later improved after India withdrew its military personnel and replaced them with civilians. Abdulla Shahid now warns that Muizzu could revive the same anti-India narrative before the 2028 election if development promises remain unfulfilled.

During Muizzu’s three-day Pakistan visit, Maldives and Pakistan announced agreements across security, technology and connectivity. The agreements matter because they could broaden the Maldives’ partnerships while raising questions in India about the island country’s strategic direction.

The two sides announced 20 memorandums of understanding. Areas included defence and maritime security, combating illicit trafficking and narcotics, information technology, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. They also agreed to start direct flights between Male and Islamabad. Muizzu met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army chief General Asim Munir.

The visit was the first by a Maldives President to Pakistan since 2015. Shahid has demanded that the government explain the agreements in Parliament. India’s Foreign Ministry said it was keeping a close watch and would take any appropriate steps that might be necessary.

Shahid believes Muizzu may make India an election issue again because he says the President has failed to deliver development and many promises. In Shahid’s view, that creates an incentive to redirect public anger toward an external target. He describes this possible strategy as creating a narrative of hate.

The concern follows Muizzu’s Pakistan visit and its 20 memorandums of understanding. The visit included defence and maritime-security agreements, a meeting with Pakistan’s Army chief and a call to revive SAARC. Shahid says Maldives should expand relations with friendly countries without damaging established relationships, especially with India.

The 2028 contest is already taking shape. Muizzu has been confirmed as the ruling PNC’s candidate, while Shahid is seeking the MDP nomination. Shahid’s warning suggests that India-Maldives ties could again become central to the campaign, although the government did not respond to his comments.

The campaign contributed to Muizzu’s 2023 victory by making India’s role in the Maldives a major political grievance. Muizzu’s People’s National Congress claimed that Solih’s government had permitted undue Indian influence. The issue gave voters a clear message about sovereignty, security and the direction of foreign policy.

The campaign particularly targeted Indian involvement in infrastructure projects. Muizzu alleged that these projects allowed India to build military bases. He also demanded the removal of Indian Air Force personnel from three locations, including Gan Island and Hanimadhoo Atoll. The personnel operated aircraft supplied by India to the Maldives.

The article identifies the campaign as a reason Solih lost the election. After Muizzu took office, tensions initially rose. Relations improved when India agreed to withdraw the military personnel and replace them with civilian personnel, reducing the campaign’s central demand while preserving cooperation.

If Maldives’ security relationship with Pakistan is seen as harming its ties with India, Malé could face greater diplomatic strain. Shahid warns that new partnerships should not come at the cost of established relationships. The central risk is that Maldives becomes associated with disputes between its larger neighbours instead of maintaining balanced cooperation.

The concern is linked to the Pakistan agreements on defence and maritime security, Muizzu’s meeting with General Asim Munir and his call to revive SAARC. India’s spokesperson said New Delhi was keeping a close watch and would take whatever appropriate steps might be necessary. Shahid has asked Maldives to explain the agreements in Parliament.

The article does not specify a definite Indian retaliation or a concrete diplomatic penalty. However, it shows that the visit has already raised eyebrows in Delhi. Continued ambiguity could complicate Maldives’ relationships with both countries and make regional cooperation more difficult.

India’s presence became politically sensitive because Muizzu’s campaign linked Indian personnel and infrastructure projects to alleged military influence. He demanded that Indian Air Force personnel leave three Maldivian locations. The issue touched national sovereignty and helped the opposition present Solih’s India policy as a political liability.

The personnel operated aircraft that India had provided to the Maldives. Muizzu specifically named Gan Island and Hanimadhoo Atoll among the locations. In June 2024, the final batch of 89 Indian personnel was withdrawn. India replaced the military personnel with civilian personnel instead.

That change helped relations improve after a tense start to Muizzu’s presidency. Muizzu later visited India for Modi’s swearing-in ceremony and for a bilateral visit. India then offered economic support, including a currency swap agreement intended to help the Maldives avoid debt failure. The personnel issue therefore shifted from confrontation toward managed cooperation.

SAARC, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, is a regional organisation designed to promote cooperation among South Asian countries. Its work depends on members being able to meet and cooperate. Rivalry between India and Pakistan can therefore prevent the organisation from functioning effectively.

The article says SAARC has been on hold since 2016, when India pulled out of a summit in Islamabad over cross-border terrorism. During Muizzu’s Pakistan visit, he called for reviving the organisation. India’s spokesperson responded that one country, indicating Pakistan, had stalled SAARC’s functioning, while India remained keen to strengthen regional cooperation.

The disagreement shows why the Maldives’ position matters. Muizzu’s call places Maldives alongside efforts to restart regional cooperation. Yet Shahid warns that Maldives should not be drawn into disputes between neighbours. Unless India and Pakistan overcome their conflict, SAARC’s broader goals will remain difficult to advance.