Israel's election is on a knife-edge. Here's what to know about the seismic vote

The election is described as being “on a knife-edge” because the two main blocs are almost level. Polling has shifted repeatedly, and Friday’s figures put Netanyahu’s ruling coalition and the opposition bloc close together. That makes the result uncertain and gives a small change in support potentially large consequences.

A defeat would remove Netanyahu from power and could end nearly 30 years as one of the Middle East’s most powerful political figures. He has served as prime minister for 18 years across three periods since 1996. His tenure has also been marked by corruption allegations, adding personal stakes to the vote.

The election is therefore both a contest between parties and a judgment on Netanyahu’s leadership. The article says his government is predicted to lose, but the polls remain close. Even a narrow opposition advantage may not immediately produce a new government, because coalition negotiations could last weeks or months.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. It has one chamber and 120 seats, unlike Australia’s system, which has both a House of Representatives and a Senate. Israelis vote for parties rather than individual candidates, and seats are allocated through proportional representation.

The crucial mechanism is the majority line. A government needs at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats to control a majority. Since no single party has ever won an outright majority, the party with the most seats cannot automatically govern alone.

Instead, parties negotiate after the election to assemble a coalition. The largest party may lead those negotiations, but it still needs partners whose combined seats reach 61. This structure explains why the election’s final outcome may depend less on which party finishes first than on which group can build a stable majority.

The key numbers are 61 seats and 3.25 per cent. Since the Knesset has 120 seats, a party or coalition must control at least 61 to hold a parliamentary majority. That majority allows a government to command more than half the chamber.

The 3.25 per cent threshold is the entry barrier for individual parties. A party that falls below it does not enter the Knesset, regardless of the votes it receives. The article says 38 parties are contesting the election, but most are expected to miss this threshold.

The threshold shapes the contest in two ways. It keeps very small parties out, while the 61-seat requirement makes alliances essential. Even parties that enter parliament may be too small to govern alone. Their seats can become important during coalition negotiations, especially if the main blocs are closely matched.

The delay comes from Israel’s coalition system. Voters choose parties, not a single government, and no party has ever held an outright Knesset majority. After the votes are counted, parties must work out which combination can control at least 61 of the 120 seats.

For example, Yashar may become the largest party while Likud finishes second. That would not automatically make Yashar’s leader prime minister. The leading party would still need partners willing to join its coalition, and those partners would need compatible political demands.

The article says coalition formation could take weeks or even months. The ruling coalition and opposition bloc are nearly level, so smaller parties could determine which side reaches 61. If neither main bloc can assemble that number quickly, negotiations may continue, and the identity of the next prime minister may remain unsettled long after election day.

Netanyahu leads the right-wing Likud party within a five-party coalition. It includes ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties and far-right, ultra-nationalist groups such as Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. Their support has been important to Netanyahu’s political survival.

The opposition is broader and less unified. Yashar, led by former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, is centrist and calls for accountability over the October 7 security failures, an end to religious exemptions from military service and a stronger military. Beyachad combines former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, while the Democrats bring together centre-left Labor and far-left Meretz.

Arab-led parties add another distinct bloc. Ra’am is Islamist conservative and supports a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, while focusing on crime and the economy. Netanyahu and his main opponents say they will not join coalitions with Arab-led parties, although a close result could test that position.

Arab-led parties could influence the prime minister’s choice by supplying seats needed to reach a majority. Israel’s 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats for a government, so a close election may leave both major blocs short. In that situation, every available coalition partner could matter.

Ra’am is described as the more moderate Arab-led party. It is led by Mansour Abbas and supports a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. It also focuses on local concerns, including crime and the economy. Ra’am has created an unprecedented political partnership with Jewish-Israeli politician Yoav Segalovitz.

The political obstacle is that Netanyahu and his main opponents have said they will not sit in a coalition with Arab-led parties. They fear alienating right-wing voters. However, the article says a close vote could force a compromise, giving Arab parties a decisive role in choosing the next prime minister.

Proportional representation is a voting system in which citizens vote for parties rather than individual candidates. Parliamentary seats are then allocated in proportion to each party’s share of the vote, subject to the 3.25 per cent threshold for entering the Knesset.

Israel’s system has 120 seats and includes 38 contesting parties. Most will not cross the threshold, but several parties can still win enough seats to matter. A party may finish first without coming close to the 61 seats required for a majority.

That is why proportional representation tends to produce coalition governments. No single party has ever held an outright majority in Israel, so parties must combine their seats and negotiate a governing agreement. The current close polling makes this mechanism especially important: the next government will depend on alliances, not simply on which party wins the largest vote share.