What challenges await Brazil's Lula in his fourth term in office?

Lula faces four linked challenges: governing without a majority, repairing weak public finances, responding to insecurity, and managing a difficult relationship with Donald Trump. Each challenge could limit his ability to deliver on campaign promises.

Congress is more firmly right-wing than before. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party holds 121 of 513 deputy seats and 28 of 81 Senate seats. Lula will need the Centrão, whose support usually requires political benefits. Meanwhile, Brazil spends more than it collects, debt exceeds 80 percent of GDP, and interest rates are very high.

Security will also demand visible results against criminal groups and militias. Welfare programs may clash with fiscal adjustment because they have lifted millions from poverty. Abroad, Trump has imposed tariffs on Brazil, forcing Lula to defend sovereignty while preserving relations with Washington. The narrow election result leaves him with little political room for error.

The Centrão is a bloc of centre-right parties in Brazil's Congress. It is not defined by firm loyalty to one president. Instead, it usually backs the government in power in exchange for benefits. That makes it a crucial negotiating partner for Lula.

Lula cannot reliably pass proposals using his own political support alone. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party is the largest force, with 121 of 513 deputies and 28 of 81 senators. Lula must therefore bargain with the Centrão to assemble votes for legislation. The bargaining can involve control over benefits and public resources.

That support is becoming harder to secure. Political scientist Mayra Goulart says lawmakers now decide the fate of an increasingly large share of the federal budget. This gives them more independence from the executive. Lula will need Centrão backing, but Congress has greater leverage, making policy negotiations slower, costlier, and less predictable.

The numbers show a serious, though not absolute, obstacle. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party holds 121 of 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 28 of 81 seats in the Senate. That is roughly one-quarter of the lower house and more than one-third of the Senate.

The party cannot pass laws by itself, but its size makes it the leading force in Congress. More importantly, Lula's own camp does not have a majority either. Legislative elections strengthened the right, so Lula must gather support from other parties for each important proposal.

The main mechanism is negotiation with the Centrão, a centre-right bloc that usually backs the government for benefits. This arrangement can help Lula assemble votes, but it gives lawmakers bargaining power. Their influence has grown because they control more of the federal budget. As a result, Lula faces a divided Congress and a difficult path for fiscal or welfare legislation.

When a government consistently spends more than it collects, it must cover the gap by borrowing or making difficult adjustments. Rising borrowing can increase public debt and make investors more concerned about the government's finances. The article warns that Brazil's situation could quickly become an economic crisis.

Brazil's public debt already exceeds 80 percent of GDP. Its central bank maintains one of the world's highest interest rates to contain inflation. High rates make borrowing more expensive, including for the government, and can weigh on economic activity. These pressures reinforce the fiscal problem.

The likely response is adjustment, but that means unpopular measures. It may require reducing spending, raising revenue, or changing programs, though the article does not specify a particular package. Lula must also confront powerful congressional lobbies. Because welfare programs are central to his political appeal, fiscal repair could produce opposition from both lawmakers and beneficiaries.

Changing welfare programs is difficult because they are not merely budget items. They have lifted millions of Brazilians out of poverty and became a flagship part of Lula's political program. Cutting or limiting them could therefore threaten both living standards and his governing support.

The fiscal pressure is substantial. Brazil spends more than it collects, and public debt exceeds 80 percent of GDP. Economist Mauro Rochlin says adjustment is inevitable, but it will involve unpopular measures and resistance from powerful lobbies in Congress. Welfare programs expanded during Lula's campaign to win voters, drawing strong opposition criticism.

Lula must now balance two competing demands. He needs to contain spending and reassure those concerned about public finances. At the same time, he must preserve programs associated with poverty reduction. Any change could provoke political conflict, especially in a Congress where lawmakers have growing control over federal budget decisions.

Criminal groups and militias are powerful enough to control territory in several Brazilian cities. The article does not detail how they govern those areas, but territorial control means residents and public institutions face organized forces that challenge normal government authority. Their presence makes insecurity a national political concern.

Violence dominated the election campaign and worried many Brazilians. The opposition accused Lula of having a soft approach to crime. In response, he said he would support lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes. The political right wants an even lower threshold of 14.

Lula will therefore be judged on visible security results, particularly against these groups and militias. The issue reaches beyond policing because it affects sovereignty over urban territory and public confidence. Any response may also trigger a political fight over criminal responsibility, with the government under pressure from both voters and the opposition.

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods entering a country. They can make imported products more expensive or less competitive in the destination market. For Brazil, tariffs imposed by the United States can therefore put pressure on exporters and complicate trade, although the article does not quantify the economic damage.

Trump imposed tariffs on Brazil last year in retaliation for legal proceedings against his ally Jair Bolsonaro. He then added another 25 percent tariff on some products this year. Those measures give Washington direct economic leverage and create a diplomatic test for Lula.

Lula campaigned on protecting Brazilian sovereignty and maintaining an anti-imperialist tone. He must manage relations with Washington without appearing to relax that position. The article notes that right-wing leaders in Latin America have aligned with Trump, but says ideology may matter less in practical relations. Lula's challenge is to defend Brazil's interests while keeping the relationship workable.