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Defence & Security26 Oct 2026 · about 6 min

Iranians fear a possible return to all-out war as U.S. and Israeli elections approach

The brief

Several warning signs suggest the conflict could expand into all-out war again. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran's leadership must be eliminated. U.S. President Donald Trump says he will “finish the job,” while a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops head toward the region. Iran has threatened U.S. military bases and Middle Eastern allies. It has also warned that it could strike new targets, including undersea data cables near the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial ships have faced the highest number of reported attacks there since the war's opening weeks in March. The naval blockade of Iranian ports has further intensified pressure by restricting oil exports and worsening medicine shortages. Iranian officials believe Trump may order more strikes before or after the U.S. midterm elections. Tehran residents are stockpiling food and medicine, showing that fear of wider war has reached ordinary households.

01

What signs in the article suggest that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States could return to all-out war?

Several warning signs suggest the conflict could expand into all-out war again. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran's leadership must be eliminated. U.S. President Donald Trump says he will “finish the job,” while a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops head toward the region.

Iran has threatened U.S. military bases and Middle Eastern allies. It has also warned that it could strike new targets, including undersea data cables near the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial ships have faced the highest number of reported attacks there since the war's opening weeks in March.

The naval blockade of Iranian ports has further intensified pressure by restricting oil exports and worsening medicine shortages. Iranian officials believe Trump may order more strikes before or after the U.S. midterm elections. Tehran residents are stockpiling food and medicine, showing that fear of wider war has reached ordinary households.

02

Who are the main actors in this crisis, and why might upcoming elections in the United States and Israel affect their decisions?

The crisis centers on Iran's government, Israel's government under Benjamin Netanyahu, and the United States under Donald Trump. Iran's leaders are resisting pressure and defending their negotiating positions. Israel says Iran's leadership must be eliminated. Washington is increasing military pressure and threatening to continue the war.

Elections matter because leaders may face pressure to appear strong. Netanyahu faces a close vote on Tuesday. Trump faces U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. The article reports fears that attacks could come just after the midterms, while Iran's leadership believes strikes could happen before or after them.

These political deadlines add uncertainty to military decisions. Iranian officials are planning for possible attack scenarios. Netanyahu and Trump are sharpening their language. The result is a dangerous period in which election timing, public pressure, and military calculations may reinforce each other.

03

What is a naval blockade, and how is the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports affecting Iran's oil exports, trade, and medicine supply?

A naval blockade is a military effort to prevent ships from entering or leaving a country's ports. It is used to restrict supplies, trade, or exports without controlling every land border. In this crisis, the U.S. blockade targets Iranian ports and puts pressure on the government's economy.

The blockade has restricted oil exports, which are important to Iran's government. Trucks have piled up at borders as trade shifts to overland routes. The article also reports medicine shortages linked to the blockade. However, it says there is no sign of shortages of food or other essential goods.

The immediate effect is greater economic strain. Iran loses access to some oil revenue while transport becomes harder and medicines become less available. The blockade is part of a wider strategy in which both sides try to outlast each other, but it also increases pressure on Iranian households and businesses.

04

How large has the war's impact been so far, in terms of deaths, damaged homes, attacks on ships, and rising prices?

The article describes a severe impact on daily life but does not provide totals for deaths or damaged homes. It reports that residents fear larger bombs and that some families are preparing to leave Tehran. The human and physical toll is therefore described through anxiety, shortages, and economic collapse rather than complete casualty figures.

Shipping has also suffered. This month recorded the highest number of reported attacks on commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz since the war's opening weeks in March. Inside Iran, rice prices have risen over 60%, while beef prices have increased over 150% since the war began.

A supermarket visit can consume half a monthly mid-range salary of 400 million rials, roughly $150. The currency has reached record lows, inflation has soared, and purchasing power has fallen. The article does not quantify global economic damage or the number of damaged homes.

05

What could happen to Iran, regional trade, and the global economy if attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz intensify?

The Strait of Hormuz is already a major pressure point in the conflict. The article reports the highest number of attacks on commercial ships there since the war's opening weeks. Iran has also warned that it could target undersea data cables. More attacks would make regional trade less secure and increase pressure on governments and companies using the route.

The key mechanism is disruption. Ships could face attacks or delays, while Iran's oil exports are already restricted by the U.S. blockade. Trucks have piled up at borders as trade shifts overland. Further trouble would add transport problems to existing shortages and currency weakness.

The article does not quantify possible global economic losses. It does show that Iran's economy is already suffering from reduced oil exports, inflation, and lost purchasing power. If shipping attacks intensify, regional trade could become even more difficult, while wider effects would depend on how long disruptions lasted.

06

What alternatives to continued fighting are available, and what conditions have prevented negotiations between Iran and the United States from producing a deal?

The clearest alternative to continued fighting is a negotiated deal between Iran and the United States. Talks could be pursued through mediators, as they have been previously. Political moderates in Iran are calling for an agreement to help salvage the economy and ease pressure on the executive branch.

Progress has been limited. The article says negotiations have shown little sign of progress for months. Trump rejected an Iranian proposal last month to end the war, and Iran's president accused the United States of disrupting negotiations. The article does not give the proposal's full terms because the text ends before explaining them.

Iran's leadership also says economic pressure will not change its negotiating position. Sasan Karimi says Tehran is calculating based on resistance and believes that stance may change Washington's decisions. This leaves diplomacy possible, but distrust, military pressure, and disagreement over strategy continue blocking a deal.

07

How do oil exports, a weakening currency, inflation, and people's purchasing power connect to one another in Iran's economy?

Oil exports provide revenue that Iran's government depends on. The U.S. naval blockade has restricted those exports, increasing economic pain. With less oil income and more difficulty trading, Iran faces a weaker economic position while trying to fund government operations and support households.

The pressure also damages the currency. The article says Iran's currency has reached record lows, losing much of its value during the past year. A weaker currency makes goods more expensive. Rice now costs over 60% more, and beef costs over 150% more than before the war began.

Inflation means wages buy less than they did before. Mohammad Mohammadi said one supermarket trip can consume half a monthly mid-range salary of 400 million rials, roughly $150. Falling purchasing power then reduces living standards and increases public frustration, creating further pressure on Iran's leaders.

This brief was written by AI from the original reporting and checked by other models. Names, figures and quotes come from the source; read it for full context.

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