Israel’s election: Five key things to know

Israelis are voting in legislative elections for the Knesset, the country’s parliament. The vote matters because the parliamentary balance determines which parties can build the next government. It is the first election since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Two broad blocs are competing. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud leads a coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. The opposition includes Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Together alliance. A party must clear 3.25 percent to enter parliament.

The latest KAN poll projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. Neither reached the 61 seats needed for a majority. The result could therefore force difficult negotiations, produce a minority government dependent on outside support, or lead to another election if coalition talks collapse.

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. Israelis elect its members in legislative elections, and the parliament’s term lasts four years. The Knesset is therefore the central institution that translates election results into political power.

Its importance comes from the need to assemble parliamentary support for a government. The article identifies 61 seats as the threshold for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Parties that clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold enter the parliament and can then participate in coalition negotiations.

The latest KAN poll showed why this process matters. It projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc, leaving the remaining seats with unaffiliated and Arab-majority parties. Since both main blocs have ruled out joining those Arab-led parties for now, forming a government may require difficult bargaining or outside support.

Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, so a party or bloc needs 61 seats to hold a parliamentary majority. That number is crucial because it indicates whether a governing coalition can command majority support in parliament.

The entry rule is separate from the governing threshold. Any party that clears 3.25 percent enters the Knesset. Once inside, its seats can become valuable in coalition negotiations, especially when the largest blocs fall short of 61. The article’s KAN projection illustrates this: the opposition alliance had 52 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc had 50.

The remaining seats were projected to go to unaffiliated parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al. Both major blocs had effectively ruled out joining the Arab-led parties. That leaves the majority question open and raises the possibility of a minority government or another election.

The pro-Netanyahu bloc is led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. It includes United Torah Judaism and Shas, both conservative religious parties, plus Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. This bloc combines Netanyahu’s leadership with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners.

The opposition coalition includes Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot; the Democrats, led by Yair Golan; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Yair Lapid. These groups are Jewish-led opposition movements with different leaders and political bases.

The article presents the main disagreement as a struggle over Israel’s future. Opposition figures stress accountability, liberal democracy and restoring institutions they say have eroded. Netanyahu’s bloc is associated with the current government’s far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition, while voters also weigh security and resistance to perceived concessions.

Security failures are central because many Israelis want accountability for reported failures leading up to the October 2023 attacks. The military exemption for the growing ultra-Orthodox community is another source of anger. Judicial reforms also matter because critics say Netanyahu’s repeated efforts could undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.

These domestic disputes meet the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. The public is war-weary and wants security and economic stability, but many voters remain resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon. That tension makes military policy a major test for every bloc.

The issues could shape both the election result and the next government’s decisions. Opposition factions describe the vote as a last chance to save democracy and restore eroded institutions. At the same time, the election comes amid growing far-right attitudes, deepening polarization and worsening international criticism of Israel’s attacks.

If neither major bloc reaches 61 seats, the election will not automatically produce a government. Israel’s fragmented party landscape means the blocs must negotiate with smaller or unaffiliated parties to assemble a parliamentary majority. Those negotiations can determine who leads the country after voting ends.

The KAN poll projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The remaining seats were expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List. Both main blocs had effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties, narrowing their options.

If negotiations succeed, a governing coalition could still emerge. If they fail, Israel could have a minority government that relies on support from parties outside its formal coalition. The country could also hold another round of elections, extending the political uncertainty and leaving the central disputes unresolved.

Proportional representation is a voting system in which parties gain seats broadly according to their share of the vote. It differs from a system where one party can win most seats by narrowly winning separate districts. The article gives Israel’s 3.25 percent entry threshold, which limits access to parties below that level.

For example, parties that clear the threshold enter the 120-seat Knesset. Several parties can therefore win representation, including the Arab-majority lists named in the article. When seats are divided among many parties, the largest party or bloc may still fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.

That is why coalition governments and post-election bargaining are common outcomes under this system. In the election described, KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition alliance and 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The article does not detail the seat-allocation formula, but it shows how fragmentation can leave smaller parties decisive.