Election polls ahead of Israel's election: Projection trend points to a nail-biter in the 2026 Knesset election

Current polls point to substantial losses for Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Likud won 32 Knesset seats in 2022, but surveys suggest it will perform much worse in the 2026 election. That weakens Netanyahu’s governing position and makes coalition-building more difficult.

The contest is mainly between two political camps. Netanyahu leads a right-religious coalition including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The opposing camp is led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot and includes his Jaschar party, the centrist Bejachad alliance, Ha-Demokratim, and Yisrael Beiteinu.

Neither camp currently has the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Polls leave 17 to 20 seats outside either bloc, so those undecided or unallocated seats could determine who forms the next government. The race therefore remains open despite Likud’s predicted losses.

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. It is the institution represented by the 120 seats discussed in the election polls. Voters choose parliamentary representatives, and the balance of seats determines which political forces can support a government.

Its importance comes from Israel’s parliamentary system. A party or alliance must command enough Knesset members to pass legislation and sustain governing authority. The article identifies 61 seats as the threshold for a majority, meaning control depends on parliamentary numbers rather than only on the largest individual party.

The current election shows why the Knesset matters. Neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the rival Eisenkot-led alliance is projected to reach 61 seats. The remaining 17 to 20 seats could therefore influence the governing coalition, the policy agenda, and who becomes prime minister after the election.

The Knesset contains 120 seats. A majority therefore begins at 61 seats, which is more than half of the chamber. This threshold matters because a governing bloc needs sufficient parliamentary support to control the government and advance its program.

The election’s central arithmetic is straightforward. Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition and the rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot are both below 61 in current polls. Even if one side becomes the largest bloc, it would still need additional support to cross the majority line.

That leaves 17 to 20 seats currently outside either main bloc. Those seats could provide the missing votes. The election may therefore be decided not simply by which camp finishes first, but by which camp can assemble a coalition reaching at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Likud and Netanyahu’s governing coalition face pressure from both political performance and public criticism. Polls predict major Likud losses compared with its 32 seats in 2022. That threatens the coalition’s ability to remain in power and makes its future dependent on negotiations with other parties.

Netanyahu has faced lasting criticism since the devastating terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, including questions about responsibility for failures in preventing Hamas’s assault. He is also the first sitting prime minister investigated by the judiciary, over allegedly illegal luxury gifts and arrangements with media companies for favorable coverage.

The election campaign focuses on foreign and security policy, responsibility for the attack-prevention failures, military service for ultraorthodox men, and high living costs. These issues give voters several reasons to challenge the current coalition. Donald Trump supports Netanyahu, but the polls do not show whether that support has helped.

A result below 61 seats means neither major camp can claim a Knesset majority by itself. The election would not automatically produce a clear governing side. Instead, the leading blocs would need to seek support from parties outside their current alliances.

The article identifies 17 to 20 seats that are not currently assigned to either bloc in polling projections. Those parties could negotiate with one or both camps. Their support might allow a bloc to pass the 61-seat threshold, while their refusal could prevent either side from forming a majority.

The immediate political consequence is uncertainty over who can build a government. The article does not specify which parties would join negotiations or what agreements they would demand. It does show that the final result will depend on coalition arithmetic, not only on which bloc receives the most seats.

The 17 to 20 seats outside the two main blocs are politically important because both leading camps currently lack a majority. Even a bloc that finishes first would still need additional parliamentary support. These seats represent the available route to the 61-seat threshold.

For example, if Netanyahu’s bloc remains below 61, it would need support from parties not included in its current coalition. The same applies to the alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot. A few additional parties could therefore change the governing balance, especially if the two camps remain closely matched.

The seats are not automatically committed to either side. Their importance comes from their possible bargaining power after the election. The article does not name which of these parties will hold the decisive position. It says only that their distribution is likely to determine the majority relationships and, consequently, who can form Israel’s next government.

Israel uses proportional representation, so Knesset seats are allocated according to parties’ shares of the vote rather than usually being won in separate local districts. This tends to produce several parliamentary parties. A single party may lead without controlling a majority, making coalition governments important.

The article illustrates that mechanism through two competing alliances. Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud and several religious or right-wing parties. Eisenkot’s rival camp combines centrist, center-left, and secular-nationalist parties. These groupings show how parties join forces to reach the 61-seat threshold in a 120-seat parliament.

Small parties matter because their seats can complete a majority. Current polls place 17 to 20 seats outside the two main blocs. Those parties may therefore gain influence beyond their size by choosing which camp to support. This explanation uses established knowledge about Israel’s electoral system; the article itself focuses mainly on the resulting coalition arithmetic.