US forces accused of ‘weaponising’ Somalia’s floods by trapping women and children in the path of El Niño

Residents of Jilib and nearby villages say repeated airstrikes are making movement nearly impossible. They allege that attacks are forcing civilians, including women and children, toward the banks of the Juba River as flooding approaches. Aid monitors fear this could create mass casualties in a city already surrounded by danger.

Cayni Ali said her home was five metres from the flooded river, with water already at her waist. Asho Omar described constant strikes that pushed people toward the riverbanks. A source monitoring the floodplain called the strategy an aggressive offensive that exploits El Niño by driving residents into flood-prone areas.

The allegation is disputed. Africom says it targets lawful military objectives, does not seek displacement, and takes feasible steps to reduce civilian harm. Still, residents report deaths, destroyed communities, and bodies in the streets, while analysts question whether flood-risk mapping may have been used to worsen danger.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern linked to unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. That shift changes atmospheric circulation and can bring heavier-than-usual rainfall to some regions. Somalia is one of the places where those altered rains can become especially dangerous.

When intense rain falls across the Juba River basin, water runs into rivers and already saturated ground. The Juba then rises and can overflow onto its floodplain. Jilib sits on a low-lying plain, so farmland, homes, roads, and escape routes can quickly become submerged. The article describes water reaching one resident’s waist.

The approaching El Niño was forecast to intensify Somalia’s rainy season. In 2023, the last El Niño caused the country’s worst floods in a century and displaced more than 1.2 million people. UN agencies and the ICRC identify the Juba basin as a particular concern this time.

The article gives no exact estimate for the number who could be affected by the approaching floods. It does identify thousands of people in al-Shabaab territory as being at risk of becoming trapped on the river’s east side. Jilib itself has a population of about 100,000, and many more people live in surrounding villages and farmland.

The previous El Niño provides the clearest measure of possible scale. In 2023, flooding displaced more than 1.2 million people across Somalia. Vast areas of farmland disappeared underwater, animals drowned, homes were destroyed, and fields of maize and sorghum were submerged. The country experienced its worst floods in a century.

The coming event could be worse for communities around Jilib, according to residents quoted in the article. Officials have identified 327 flood-prone regions in Jubaland, but warnings had reached only half of them by October. The shortage of boats increases the risk of people being left without evacuation or assistance.

Jilib is especially exposed because it sits on a low-lying plain beside the Juba River. The city is already chronically vulnerable to flooding, and its surrounding farmland can disappear under water when heavy rains arrive. In 2023, homes, crops, and animals were destroyed after floodwaters rose quickly, sometimes at night.

Escape is also difficult because the river divides communities from possible assistance. Ali Adan Ali, Jubaland’s commissioner for displaced people, said thousands in al-Shabaab territory could be trapped on the river’s east side. Without boats, they may be unable to cross toward Kismayo, located at the mouth of the Juba.

Airstrikes make the problem worse by restricting movement, according to residents. The article says many people are being pushed toward the riverbanks while flooding increases. Warnings had reached only half of the 327 identified flood-prone regions by October, leaving major gaps in preparedness and evacuation planning.

Airstrikes and floods can combine to create a closed trap. If attacks make roads and paths unsafe, people may be unable to flee before water rises. If floodwaters then cover roads, bridges, farmland, and river crossings, families can lose access to food, clean water, shelter, medical care, and humanitarian assistance.

The article describes residents already being pushed toward the Juba River. It also warns that thousands may become stranded on the river’s east side because there are too few boats to reach help in Kismayo. Earlier floods destroyed homes, submerged crops, and drowned animals. Those losses can leave families without food or income.

The immediate danger is drowning and injury, but isolation can extend the crisis. Aid teams may be unable to deliver supplies or evacuate the vulnerable. The article warns of possible large-scale deaths in the months ahead, especially because many people in the affected population are women and children.

Al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant group, controls about 30% of Somalia and holds Jilib as a de facto stronghold. The United States Africa Command, or Africom, is coordinating an air campaign in east Africa against the group. The article also raises questions about possible covert US strikes, though it provides no confirmation.

Under international humanitarian law, forces must distinguish military objectives from civilians and civilian objects. Attacks must be directed at lawful military targets. Expected civilian harm cannot be excessive compared with the anticipated military advantage. Parties must also take feasible precautions, including choosing methods and timing that reduce danger to civilians.

Those duties matter especially where al-Shabaab is embedded within the population. Africom says it does not target civilians or use flooding to displace them, and says it takes feasible measures to reduce harm. The reported civilian deaths and lack of accountability have nevertheless prompted serious concern about whether those responsibilities are being met.

Humanitarian mapping and remote sensing use satellite and other data to identify flood-prone land, rising water, roads, settlements, and escape routes. Aid agencies can use that information to warn communities, position boats and supplies, plan evacuations, and avoid sending civilians toward known hazards. Its purpose is to reduce civilian harm during disasters and conflict.

The article says analysts are concerned that mapping data created to mitigate casualties may have been used differently. If military planners know which areas will flood, they could allegedly use airstrikes to restrict movement toward those locations. People would then face a combined threat from attacks and rising water.

Jethro Norman called this a reversal of process: humanitarian remote sensing used to inflict casualties instead of prevent them. US officials deny exploiting climate conditions. The concern remains serious because the Juba basin is expected to face severe flooding, and residents may have few routes or boats for escape.