Serbia after Vucic: Who will be PM and when will a government be formed?

The Student List won Serbia’s snap parliamentary election and dealt a major blow to Aleksandar Vucic’s long political dominance. Its victory followed nearly two years of student-led protests that began after 16 people died in a railway-station canopy collapse in Novi Sad in 2024. The movement later broadened into a campaign against alleged corruption and institutional capture.

Based on 8,077 of 8,392 processed polling stations, the Republic Election Commission gave the Student List 52.54 percent of votes. United Serbia, led by Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party, received 39.29 percent. The difference was therefore 13.25 percentage points.

The final result was still pending, but the early figures projected 140 of parliament’s 250 seats for the Student List. United Serbia was expected to win 103. The Student List’s lead therefore matters not only symbolically. It gives the movement enough seats to govern without coalition negotiations.

A parliamentary majority means controlling more than half of a legislature’s seats. It matters because a majority can usually support a government, pass legislation and approve key decisions without relying on outside parties. In Serbia’s 250-seat National Assembly, the required majority is 126 seats.

The Student List was projected to win 140 seats. That is 14 more than the majority threshold. United Serbia was projected to receive 103 seats, while smaller parties would hold the remaining mandates. The seat distribution gives the Student List a clear advantage inside parliament.

Because it has more than 126 seats, the Student List can form a government on its own. It does not need lengthy coalition talks with the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, the Albanian political bloc, or other smaller lists. The final result still had to be announced, but the projected majority already made the governing path clear.

The election figures show both the scale of the Student List’s victory and the strength of participation. The Republic Election Commission reported 52.54 percent for the Student List and 39.29 percent for United Serbia. Voter turnout reached 68.78 percent, a record high in more than 30 years according to the commission’s data.

The vote shares translated into a projected 140 seats for the Student List in the 250-seat parliament. United Serbia was expected to receive 103 seats. Smaller groups were projected to take the rest: three seats for the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, two for the Albanian political bloc, and one each for the Rasim Ljajc-Ljudski and SDA Sandzak lists.

The figures were based on 8,077 processed polling stations out of 8,392, so the final result was not yet known. Even so, the Student List already appeared certain to hold a governing majority, while United Serbia remained the main opposition bloc.

Serbia’s new government cannot be formed immediately after voting because the election process must first reach its legal next stages. The final results must be announced, and the new National Assembly must then be established. Only after parliament is constituted can the government formation process move forward.

The National Assembly must be established within 30 days of the final results being announced. After that, a government must be formed within 90 days. These deadlines provide a fixed timetable even when election results or coalition negotiations create uncertainty.

In this election, the Student List’s projected 140 seats simplify the process. It would have more than the 126 seats required for a majority, so it does not need lengthy talks with other parties. The exact timing still depends on the final results and the date parliament convenes. The article does not give a specific government formation date.

Ilija Srdanovic is a professor at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Novi Sad. He is also a cardiologist. During the election campaign, he led the Student List, the movement that grew from student protests into a successful parliamentary force.

The Student List did not name a prime-minister candidate during its campaign. It also avoided promoting individual leaders, stressing instead the collective character of a movement that brought together academics, doctors and workers. Srdanovic’s campaign leadership nevertheless made him the most visible possible candidate.

He is now considered the most likely person to become Serbia’s next prime minister, but that choice is not confirmed. Important questions remain about who would lead ministries such as internal affairs, finance and justice. The movement’s projected parliamentary majority means it can choose and support a government without a coalition, but its final personnel decisions remain unclear.

The immediate trigger was the collapse of a railway-station canopy in Novi Sad in 2024, which killed 16 people. Students began protesting and demanded accountability for the deaths. The protests lasted nearly two years, according to the article, and became the foundation for a wider political movement.

The demonstrations expanded beyond the station disaster. Protesters also opposed alleged corruption and the capture of democratic institutions. In its September electoral programme, the Student List promised to fight corruption and organised crime, raise living standards, improve employment and education, protect media freedom, and strengthen institutional independence.

The movement then entered the snap parliamentary election and emerged victorious. Its projected 140 seats gave it an outright majority, while the pro-Vucic United Serbia bloc was projected to win 103. The result ended Vucic’s long grip on power, although questions about the new government’s ministers and the presidency remained.

Serbia divides political authority between a directly elected president and a government supported through parliament. Citizens elect the president directly, rather than leaving that choice to members of the National Assembly. The presidential post is described in the article as largely ceremonial.

Government formation follows the parliamentary election. A party or movement with a majority in the 250-seat assembly can support a government without coalition talks. The Student List’s projected 140 seats therefore give it the parliamentary strength to govern alone, even though the president is chosen separately by voters.

Vucic had dominated Serbian politics as prime minister and then president since 2014. After resigning as president on September 27, he left Ana Brnabic, the National Assembly president, holding the role temporarily. Brnabic must call an extraordinary presidential election by December 27. The new president and the new parliamentary government will therefore be selected through separate political processes.