Satellite image shows Cyclone Arnab moving towards Andhra as storm intensifies over Bay of Bengal ahead of October 28 landfall

Cyclone Arnab is currently over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal. The IMD located its centre near 15.5°N latitude and 88.8°E longitude at 8:30 am on October 26. It was moving westwards at about 15 kmph, with intense thunderstorm activity around the system.

The storm is forecast to turn northwestwards while approaching the coast. Its expected landfall zone is the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coastline between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. At that time, the cyclone could bring powerful winds, heavy rain and dangerous seas to coastal areas.

The IMD expects Arnab to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by the night of October 26 and a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27. Landfall is forecast by the forenoon of October 28, with Andhra Pradesh facing the most direct impact and neighbouring Odisha preparing for wider effects.

A tropical cyclone is a large, rotating weather system built around a low-pressure centre. It develops over warm ocean water, where rising moist air helps create thunderstorms and strong winds. These storms matter because they can combine destructive winds, intense rainfall, flooding and dangerous seas over a wide area.

The IMD uses wind speed to classify cyclone intensity. A severe cyclonic storm has maximum sustained winds of 89–117 kmph. A very severe cyclonic storm has maximum sustained winds of 118–166 kmph. These are sustained winds, measured over a period, rather than brief gusts.

The article forecasts Arnab will become severe by the night of October 26 and very severe on October 27. It separately forecasts sustained winds of 115–125 kmph at landfall, with gusts up to 140 kmph. The precise classification at landfall depends on the storm’s observed wind speed.

Cyclone Arnab is forecast to produce maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph when it reaches the coast. These winds describe the storm’s continuing strength, not a brief spike. They can damage buildings, uproot trees, disrupt electricity and make travel hazardous in exposed coastal areas.

The IMD also forecasts gusts reaching up to 140 kmph. Gusts are short-lived bursts that can be stronger than the sustained wind. This difference matters because structures and people may face sudden, powerful blasts even when the average wind is lower.

The forecast places Arnab’s landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of October 28. The storm is expected to intensify before then, becoming severe by October 26 night and very severe on October 27. Actual conditions can vary along the coast as the storm approaches.

Convective cloud activity forms when warm, moist air rises rapidly and builds towering thunderstorms. In a tropical cyclone, these storms are not just rain clouds. They help release heat high in the atmosphere, supporting lower pressure and feeding the cyclone’s circulation.

Arnab’s satellite assessment found scattered to broken low- and mid-level clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection. The IMD also reported moderate to very intense convective activity around the centre. Such organised, vigorous thunderstorms indicate that the storm has a strong internal engine and may be intensifying.

Satellite monitoring is especially important over the sea, where direct observations are limited. INSAT-3DS is helping track Arnab’s location, cloud organisation and convective development. The latest imagery therefore supports the forecast that the system will strengthen before approaching the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Cyclone Arnab could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of Andhra Pradesh, with extremely heavy rain possible at isolated locations. Such rainfall can flood low-lying areas, disrupt roads and services, and threaten homes and communities near rivers or the coast.

Strong winds may damage structures, trees and power infrastructure. Rough to very rough seas can endanger fishing vessels and other maritime activities. The IMD specifically warned of risks to coastal communities, fishermen and people working at sea as the storm approaches.

The greatest direct threat is along the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coastline between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam. Odisha may also experience rain and wind effects despite lying outside the forecast landfall zone. Authorities in both states are therefore restricting activities, monitoring vulnerable locations and preparing emergency responses before October 28.

A cyclone’s effects spread beyond the exact point where its centre crosses the coast. Rainbands and strong winds can reach neighbouring areas, even when the forecast landfall is elsewhere. That is why Odisha is preparing for possible impacts from Arnab’s rain and wind.

The state has prohibited fishing and barred tourists from hills, waterfalls, dams and scenic destinations in six vulnerable districts. It has also positioned emergency teams and begun moving residents of thatched houses and low-lying areas to safer shelters. Pregnant women are being shifted to health facilities in advance.

Odisha has deployed 24 ODRAF teams and six NDRF teams. Eight ministers are monitoring preparedness, while control rooms coordinate operations. Schools, colleges and Anganwadi centres in the six districts are scheduled to close on October 28 and 29. These steps aim to reduce exposure before conditions worsen.

Tropical cyclones generally begin over warm ocean water. Heat causes evaporation, and moist air rises into developing thunderstorms. As that air condenses, it releases heat, lowering pressure and encouraging more air to flow inward. Earth’s rotation helps organise the inflow into a rotating circulation. A cyclone intensifies when this process remains supplied with warm water and limited disruption.

The storm’s movement is mainly steered by larger-scale winds in the atmosphere. Changes in those winds can alter its direction. Approaching land also changes the environment: the storm may encounter drier air, stronger friction and less warm water, which usually weakens it. Nearby weather systems can also influence its track.

For Arnab, the IMD reports westward movement at about 15 kmph and forecasts a turn northwestwards near the coast. The article does not explain the physical cause of that turn, but it says the system is expected to intensify before landfall and then cross between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam.