Israel is holding its most important election in years. Here’s what’s at stake

The Knesset is Israel’s parliament. It has 120 seats, and its members are chosen through a proportional representation system. Voters select party lists, not individual candidates or a prime minister directly. This system allows several political movements to gain representation, reflecting Israel’s divisions over nationality, religion, ethnicity and ideology.

In this election, 37 party lists registered. Only lists winning at least 3.25% of the vote can enter the Knesset. Seats are then allocated according to each qualifying party’s share of the vote. A party therefore does not need to win a district to gain lawmakers; it needs enough nationwide support to cross the threshold.

Winning the most seats does not automatically decide who governs. The prime minister must assemble a coalition that controls at least 61 of the 120 seats. Because polls suggest no bloc will reach that number alone, the election determines the Knesset’s balance first, followed by negotiations over the government.

Israel’s Knesset contains 120 seats. To form a government, a prime minister needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers, which is a majority. This distinction matters because election results measure party strength, while governing power depends on whether parties can combine their seats into a workable bloc.

For example, polls put Netanyahu’s bloc between 49 and 55 seats. That bloc includes Likud, two far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and two ultra-Orthodox parties. Even its strongest projected result remains below 61, leaving it dependent on additional support or a changed political arrangement.

No party has ever won 61 seats alone. The largest party therefore may not produce the prime minister. After ballots are counted, leaders must negotiate with other parties. Those talks can last days, weeks or months, and may produce a coalition, a minority government, a unity government or another election.

Israeli voters choose party lists because the country’s politics contain many competing identities and ideologies. The article describes divisions involving nationality, religion, ethnicity and ideology. A list-based proportional system lets several movements win parliamentary seats instead of forcing every choice into a single contest between individual leaders.

The election features 37 registered lists. Voters select among these lists, and only those receiving at least 3.25% of the vote enter the 120-seat Knesset. Their seats reflect their vote share. Likud and Yashar may be the largest parties, but neither leader is automatically prime minister simply because that party finishes first.

The prime minister emerges from coalition arithmetic after the vote. A leader must find partners whose combined seats reach 61. That is why Gadi Eisenkot can lead Netanyahu in some polls while still needing support from other opposition parties, including groups that have not endorsed him and have their own premiership ambitions.

The 3.25% electoral threshold is the minimum share of the national vote a party list must win to enter the Knesset. Parties below that line receive no parliamentary seats. The rule matters because Israel’s election uses proportional representation, so small shifts in votes can determine whether a party exists inside the legislature at all.

Suppose a small party receives support but finishes below 3.25%. Those votes do not translate into seats. The seats that might have gone to that party are instead distributed among parties that cleared the threshold. The change can strengthen one political bloc, weaken another, or alter which parties hold bargaining power.

The article identifies several Netanyahu allies as being at risk, including Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and a new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter. Turnout could be decisive. Higher Arab turnout may exceed 60%, making it harder for small parties to survive while changing the final seat balance.

Israeli governments usually require coalitions because the Knesset has 120 seats, while governing requires 61. The proportional system divides representation among many parties, and no single party has ever won a majority alone. The largest party can therefore remain outside government if it cannot assemble enough partners.

A small party becomes a potential kingmaker when neither major bloc can reach 61 without it. Its lawmakers may provide the final seats needed for a governing majority. In exchange, it can gain influence over policy or government formation. The decisive party may not be the biggest; it may be the group that controls the arithmetic.

Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc at 49 to 55 seats. The opposition is also fragmented among Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Liberman and Yair Golan. An alternative government may need Arab parties’ support or abstention, although several opposition leaders reject cooperation. That makes small parties and independents in alignment especially important.

A minority government could emerge if a leader governs without 61 formal supporters, relying on outside backing or abstentions to survive votes. A unity government could bring rival blocs together when neither side can form a government alone. Political deadlock would result if leaders cannot agree on partners, policy or a prime minister.

The article gives several reasons these outcomes are plausible. Netanyahu’s bloc is projected at 49 to 55 seats. The opposition is fragmented, and Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have not endorsed Gadi Eisenkot. An alternative government might need Arab parties to support it or abstain, but several opposition leaders have ruled out cooperation.

If negotiations fail, another election could follow. Election night therefore may settle very little. The real contest begins afterward, as parties calculate possible combinations. Those talks can last days, weeks or months, and the result could be a minority government, a unity arrangement, continued deadlock or a fresh vote.

The election is Israel’s first national vote since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attack, described as the country’s deadliest security failure. The wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran mobilized much of the country and deepened Israel’s international isolation. Voters can judge the leadership present during the attack and decide who should lead during conflict and expanded military service.

Netanyahu’s outgoing government also pursued a judicial overhaul intended to weaken the Supreme Court and other checks on power. The effort triggered massive protests in 2023. Meanwhile, Netanyahu became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to stand trial on corruption charges. His government depended on far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, pushing Israel in a more nationalist and religious direction.

Those events frame the central choice: continue that direction or change course. The election is therefore about more than replacing a prime minister. It concerns security leadership, accountability, military burdens, institutions and Israel’s broader political identity. Yet fragmented blocs mean voters may not receive a clear answer immediately.