Brazil election: many scientists relieved as Lula wins surprise victory

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election on 25 October. He received 51.8% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.2%. The result matters because it placed a candidate who supports stronger public science and environmental action back in power.

The election required two rounds. On 4 October, Lula finished behind Bolsonaro, but neither candidate won more than half of the votes. The second round therefore decided the contest between the two leading candidates. Lula’s final margin was 3.6 percentage points.

The outcome surprised many observers because Bolsonaro led after the first round. Scientists celebrated Lula’s victory, fearing that Bolsonaro would reduce science support and weaken environmental policies. Lula has pledged to strengthen federal universities, improve education for artificial intelligence and robotics, and work toward ending Amazon deforestation by 2030.

A two-round election is a voting system with a runoff. If no candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round, the leading candidates compete again. The second round produces a winner with majority support between those finalists. This definition comes from general electoral knowledge; the article explains how Brazil applied it.

Brazil held its first round on 4 October. Lula finished behind Flávio Bolsonaro, but neither candidate earned 50% of the total vote. Because the threshold was not reached, voters returned to choose between the two leading candidates. Lula then won 51.8%, compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.2%.

The runoff made the election more competitive and allowed voters to make a final choice between two sharply different policy directions. It also created a dramatic reversal: Lula trailed after the first round but won the presidency in the second. The result was announced after a tense election day affected by transportation problems.

Many Brazilian scientists were relieved because they viewed Lula as a stronger supporter of research, universities, and environmental protection. Scientific organizations openly endorsed him, and an open letter supporting his campaign collected more than 20,000 signatures. Researchers feared that a Bolsonaro victory could reduce funding and weaken confidence in scientific evidence.

Their concern was based partly on Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2019 to 2023. During that period, he cut science funding and used anti-science rhetoric during the COVID-19 pandemic. He cast doubt on vaccines and promoted treatments that had not been proven. Under Jair Bolsonaro, Amazon deforestation also rose by almost 60% between 2019 and 2023.

Lula promised to strengthen federal universities and institutes. He also emphasized preparing young people for artificial intelligence and robotics. On the environment, he pledged to end deforestation in Brazil by 2030 and align greenhouse-gas cuts with the Paris Agreement. Scientists saw these promises as a safer direction for research and climate policy.

The candidates proposed different models for universities and research. Lula supported expanding federal universities and making higher education accessible to more Brazilians. Flávio Bolsonaro proposed transferring Brazil’s 69 federal universities from the Ministry of Education to the Ministry of Science and Technology, which has a much smaller budget.

Their research priorities also differed. Bolsonaro said he would emphasize applied sciences, which aim more directly at practical uses. Lula’s approach supported a broader research system, including the strong basic research foundation that scientists say helps countries make major advances. Basic research seeks to understand fundamental questions, even when immediate products are not clear.

The funding issue mattered because moving universities to a smaller-budget ministry could restrict their resources. Lula also promised to strengthen federal universities and institutes and improve preparation for artificial intelligence and robotics. He therefore combined support for foundational knowledge with training for emerging technologies, rather than treating them as competing goals.

During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency from 2019 to 2023, Brazilian science faced reduced financial support and hostile political rhetoric. The article links his administration to cuts in science funding. This worried researchers because laboratories, universities, and long-term projects depend on stable public investment.

Public trust was also affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Bolsonaro cast doubt on vaccines and promoted treatments that had not been proven. Those actions challenged scientific evidence at a time when people needed reliable health information. The article presents this conduct as anti-science rhetoric, rather than as support for careful testing and established evidence.

The effects extended beyond health and research. Amazon deforestation rose by almost 60% between 2019 and 2023 under Jair Bolsonaro. This record helped explain why scientists feared similar policies from his son, Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula’s victory brought promises of stronger universities, renewed research support, and more ambitious environmental protection.

Brazil’s Amazon policy matters globally because the rainforest is considered one of the world’s largest carbon sinks. A carbon sink absorbs more carbon than it releases, helping limit the buildup of greenhouse gases. Deforestation removes that protection. It also threatens Brazil’s promise to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement.

The article gives a clear warning. Under Lula, deforestation fell to its lowest level since measurements began in 1988. Between 2019 and 2023, it rose by almost 60% under Jair Bolsonaro. Studies suggest that continued deforestation could make the Amazon release more carbon than it absorbs. The key mechanism is a shift from net absorption to net emissions.

Lula campaigned on ending deforestation in Brazil by 2030. He also promised energy-transition programs that would end the use of fossil fuels in Brazil. If implemented, these policies could protect the rainforest’s climate role and reduce national emissions. Their success would affect climate efforts far beyond Brazil’s borders.

Basic research studies how the world works, often without a direct short-term application. It can examine fundamental questions in physics, biology, mathematics, or other fields. Applied research uses knowledge to solve specific problems. This distinction comes from established scientific practice; the article mainly explains why basic research matters.

The article notes that countries making the greatest scientific advances have an extremely strong foundation in basic research. That foundation supplies ideas, methods, and discoveries that later support useful technologies. A new tool may therefore depend on years of work whose original purpose was not commercial or immediately practical.

This matters as Brazil prepares young people for artificial intelligence and robotics. Lula said universities and institutes should improve that preparation, but practical technology still needs deep knowledge underneath it. Supporting both kinds of research gives a country immediate problem-solving capacity and a pipeline of future breakthroughs. Cutting basic research can weaken that pipeline even when applied projects look more urgent.