Mapping Cyclone Arnab’s trail: From Andhra to UP, IMD warns of heavy rain till Oct 30

A tropical cyclone is a large, rotating storm system that develops over warm tropical ocean water. It can bring powerful winds, intense rain and dangerous seas. Landfall means the cyclone’s center crosses from the ocean onto land. This matters because conditions often become most dangerous near and shortly after that crossing.

Cyclone Arnab is expected to make landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 28. The IMD said it could cross between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near Yanam. Forecast winds there are 115–125 km/h, with gusts up to 140 km/h. Those winds can damage structures, trees, power lines and transport links.

The storm’s effects will not stop at the shoreline. The IMD expects extremely heavy rain in Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on October 27 and 28. Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh may also receive heavy or extremely heavy rain through October 30.

The IMD expects Cyclone Arnab to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 28. Director Manorama Mohanty gave a more specific corridor: between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, near Yanam. This forecast matters because the crossing zone may face the cyclone’s strongest winds, roughest seas and heaviest rain.

The rainfall threat begins before landfall. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam could receive isolated extremely heavy rain on October 27 and 28. Odisha could see extremely heavy rain on October 28, with heavy to very heavy rain also forecast on October 27 and 29. Telangana and Vidarbha are listed for heavy to very heavy rain on October 28.

The system may then affect inland areas. Chhattisgarh could receive extremely heavy rain on October 28 and 29. Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh may receive heavy or very heavy rain between October 29 and 30.

The IMD forecast rapid strengthening as Arnab moves across the east-central Bay of Bengal. It was expected to become a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on October 26, then a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27. The wording reflects a storm becoming much more powerful before reaching land.

The forecast landfall wind speed is 115–125 km/h. Gusts could reach 140 km/h. Sustained winds of that strength can threaten roofs, trees, utility lines, roads and other exposed infrastructure. They can also make sea conditions dangerous for boats and shipping operations.

The storm’s exact intensity at landfall can change as conditions evolve. The article gives the IMD’s forecast rather than a measured final strength. Authorities in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha therefore ordered high alert and preparedness measures, while fishermen were advised not to enter the sea.

The IMD is warning fishermen because a strengthening cyclone makes the sea dangerous. Powerful winds, high waves and rapidly changing conditions can threaten boats and crews. Coastal residents also need time to secure homes, follow evacuation instructions and move away from vulnerable areas. The article reports that transport, port and shipping operations may be disrupted.

The warning covers several groups because the storm’s effects overlap. Ports may need to restrict activity. Shipping operators may face unsafe routes. Transport services can be delayed by wind, rain or damaged roads. In Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu directed authorities to remain on high alert and prepare at every level.

These precautions are especially urgent from Tuesday evening and Wednesday, when disruptions were expected. Odisha also reviewed its response, and its disaster force deployed 45 personnel in three teams. Early warnings give authorities and communities time to reduce exposure before conditions worsen.

A cyclone of this strength can affect far more than the shoreline. Strong winds may damage roofs, trees, power lines, roads and other infrastructure. Extremely heavy rain can overwhelm drainage, flood low-lying areas and interrupt transport. Coastal communities may also face dangerous seas and temporary displacement. These are general cyclone risks; the article does not provide a damage estimate.

The forecast shows why the threat is broad. Winds at landfall may reach 115–125 km/h, gusting to 140 km/h. Extremely heavy rain is expected in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Heavy to very heavy rain is also forecast for Telangana, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. Such rainfall can waterlog fields and damage crops, although the article gives no agricultural assessment.

Shipping, ports and transport may be disrupted from Tuesday evening and Wednesday. Andhra Pradesh ordered high alert, while Odisha assigned departmental responsibilities and deployed response teams. The report also mentions evacuation of 5.7 lakh people, showing the scale of preparations described.

A cyclone is not only a coastal wind event. Its circulation draws moist air from the sea and carries that moisture inland. As the storm moves, curved rainbands can continue producing heavy showers far from the landfall point. Hills, local weather and the storm’s track can further shape where rain falls. The article reports the forecast pattern but does not explain this mechanism.

Arnab illustrates that inland reach. The IMD forecasts extremely heavy rain in Chhattisgarh on October 28 and 29, even though the expected crossing is on the Andhra Pradesh coast. It also forecasts heavy to very heavy rain in Bihar on October 29 and 30, and in East Uttar Pradesh on October 30.

This means the threat continues after coastal landfall and may shift northward with the system. Authorities inland must watch rainfall, drainage and transport conditions, not only wind. The forecast also includes Odisha, Jharkhand, Telangana and Vidarbha, showing the storm’s wide rain footprint.

Tropical cyclones generally form over warm tropical seas when moist air rises and creates lower pressure near the surface. Earth’s rotation helps organize the inflowing air into a spinning circulation. As more warm, humid air rises and condenses, it releases heat, which can strengthen the storm’s circulation. This is general weather science; the article does not explain cyclone formation.

The Bay of Bengal provides the setting described for Arnab. The IMD said the storm was over the east-central Bay of Bengal and expected it to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on October 26. It forecast further strengthening into a very severe cyclonic storm on October 27.

The forecast shows how quickly conditions may change over the sea. Arnab is expected to approach Andhra Pradesh with winds of 115–125 km/h and gusts up to 140 km/h. Because intensity can evolve before landfall, the IMD issued warnings and authorities began preparedness measures.