What’s at stake in Israel’s first elections since the October 7 attacks?

The Knesset is Israel’s 120-seat legislature. Israelis do not directly elect a prime minister in this parliamentary election. Instead, each voter chooses one party, and parties receive seats in proportion to their vote share. The election matters because the distribution of those seats determines which groups can support a government.

After votes are counted, party leaders recommend a candidate to Israel’s president. The president selects the person judged most capable of forming a government. That candidate has twenty-eight days, with a possible fourteen-day extension, to assemble a coalition that can govern.

The process can produce uncertainty because no party has ever won an outright Knesset majority. If the first candidate fails, a second receives twenty-eight days. If that also fails, the Knesset may name another member, or Israel may hold new elections while the existing prime minister remains caretaker leader.

Israel’s electoral threshold is 3.25 percent of votes cast. A party that reaches it receives a proportional share of the Knesset’s 120 seats. In practice, crossing the threshold gives a party at least four seats, while falling below it gives the party no seats.

That threshold is separate from the number needed to govern. A coalition requires at least 61 Knesset seats, or more than half of the chamber. Several parties therefore usually need to cooperate, because no single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s legislative elections.

The difference between four seats and 61 seats explains why small parties matter. A party just above the threshold can gain seats that affect coalition arithmetic. A party just below it can lose all representation, potentially changing which bloc has enough support to form a government.

Israel uses proportional representation for its 120-seat Knesset. Voters choose parties rather than individual constituency representatives, so seats are spread among groups that win enough votes. This makes a single-party majority difficult and makes coalition bargaining central to governing.

The arithmetic is demanding. A government needs 61 seats, but parties can fall below the 3.25 percent threshold and receive none. Small parties also attract votes from larger or aligned parties. Their presence can therefore alter the final seat balance, even when they win only a modest share of the vote.

The result is a political system built around alliances. Most recent polls in this election predict that Netanyahu’s bloc will fall short of 61 seats, while the opposition’s route to a majority is also uncertain. Negotiations, outside support, or another election may therefore follow the vote.

The threshold decides whether a party receives any Knesset seats. Every party that wins at least 3.25 percent gets a proportional share of the 120 seats. A party that finishes just below the line receives none, so its votes do not directly help it enter parliament.

That outcome can reshape coalition math. If a small party crosses the threshold, it may win at least four seats and give those seats to a particular bloc. If it misses, aligned voters may effectively be left without representation, while other parties receive a larger relative share. Leaders may therefore withdraw to avoid splitting votes.

The article gives two examples. Benny Gantz withdrew Blue and White less than two weeks before voting. Netanyahu urged Ofer Winter’s far-right Amcha Yisrael to withdraw, fearing the loss of tens of thousands of right-wing votes. Such decisions could determine whether either bloc reaches 61 seats.

Arab parties could become decisive because both major blocs may fall short of the 61 seats needed for a governing coalition. Their participation could provide seats inside a coalition, or their passive support could help a government survive without holding a majority itself.

The article points to 2021 as a concrete example. Ra’am became the first Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition. Its participation helped bring Naftali Bennett, and later Yair Lapid, to power. This showed that Arab parties can affect who governs even when they are not part of the traditional main blocs.

The same possibility is visible after this election. If the opposition wins seats in the mid-fifties, it could seek a minority government with outside Arab support. The opposition’s path is not guaranteed, but Arab parties may determine whether it can challenge Netanyahu or whether negotiations fail.

After the votes are counted, the president first selects the candidate considered most capable of forming a government. That candidate receives twenty-eight days, with a possible fourteen-day extension. If the attempt fails, the president has three days to choose a second candidate.

The second candidate receives twenty-eight days but cannot receive an extension. If that candidate also fails, the current Knesset can petition the president to assign another member the task. This creates several opportunities for negotiations after election day.

If the Knesset does not choose another member, Israel heads to new elections and repeats the process. Netanyahu remains prime minister during that period as a caretaker, with somewhat limited powers. The prospect of repeat elections is one reason the current deadlock could lead to prolonged coalition negotiations.

The election follows four turbulent years under Netanyahu. His government faced an attempted judicial-system overhaul that sparked protests involving millions of people through much of 2023. The campaign therefore asks voters to weigh not only parties, but also the country’s political and institutional direction.

Security has also transformed the choice. The October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorist attack led to a hostage crisis and the ensuing war in Gaza. Israel later fought in Lebanon and entered its first direct military engagements with Iran, including an ongoing war alongside the United States.

These events raise the election’s stakes for voters. Most Israelis see it as critical to charting the country’s future, and some call it existential. Yet campaigning has been muted, while polls show two roughly equal blocs and little evidence of voters crossing from one side to the other.