Israelis vote in tense election testing Netanyahu’s grip on power

The election will decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister and whether his religious and ultranationalist coalition can keep governing. It is also a broader choice about Israel’s character. Voters are weighing a state shaped strongly by religious and nationalist forces against one more firmly anchored in liberal and secular values.

Netanyahu’s supporters call him a steady hand and a skilled statesman who has guided Israel through several wars. His critics blame him for prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis, weakening the judiciary, and enabling ultra-Orthodox men to avoid compulsory military service. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is the main rival named in the article.

No party is expected to win an outright majority. Netanyahu’s bloc and the parties opposing him may both fall short, forcing coalition negotiations. Eisenkot’s likely partners promise to improve Israel’s international standing, conscript ultra-Orthodox men, and strengthen judicial independence.

Over 7 million people are eligible to vote in this national election. That makes the contest a major decision for Israel’s government and direction, especially because it follows the October 7 attack and years of war-related tension. The electorate includes established voters, overseas citizens who returned, and a large group voting nationally for the first time.

Around 330,000 young Israelis are first-time voters. Many face compulsory military service, so security, war, and the country’s leadership have immediate relevance to their lives. Their first vote also connects a new generation to arguments about Israel’s identity, democracy, and relations with its allies.

The article does not state whether these young voters will favor either bloc or determine the result. Their participation adds a substantial new group to an already closely contested election. The final government may still depend on coalition bargaining rather than turnout alone.

A coalition government is an administration supported by two or more parties. Those parties agree to work together so their combined parliamentary seats can support a prime minister and government. Coalitions matter because they turn separate election results into a governing majority.

Israel’s politics are fragmented, with many parties competing for seats. The article states that no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority. A party therefore usually needs partners, and those partners can demand influence over policy, ministries, or the government’s direction in return for their support.

After this election, Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist coalition may need additional backing. The parties seeking to remove him face the same challenge. If either side can gather enough compatible partners, it can govern. If not, negotiations may continue for weeks before a leader is declared.

If neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the parties trying to remove him wins enough seats, the election will not immediately produce a government. Instead, political leaders will have to negotiate. The central task will be finding a combination of parties whose seats and support are sufficient to govern.

This process depends on agreements between parties that may disagree on major issues. Arab-led parties could become especially important if they choose to support one candidate over the other. Their backing would matter only if other parties were also willing to join a government or governing arrangement with them.

The article warns that this outcome could set off weeks of negotiations before a leader is declared. Until those talks succeed, the election result would show the balance of power but not necessarily settle who governs. The next government’s policies could therefore depend on bargaining after voting ends.

Arab-led parties could become kingmakers because Israel’s fragmented parliament may leave both main camps short of a majority. In that situation, even a smaller group can become crucial if its seats provide the difference between winning and failing to form a government.

The mechanism is political support. Arab-led parties are pushing for heavy turnout and could back either Netanyahu or his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. But their support would not automatically create a government. Other parties would also have to accept working with them or relying on their votes.

Their influence therefore depends on both the election result and coalition negotiations afterward. If the major blocs remain closely matched, Arab-led parties may have leverage over who becomes leader and what agreements shape the next government. The article does not say which candidate they will support.

The October 7, 2023, attack changed the election’s central questions. It sparked the war in Gaza and related conflicts across the region, leaving security, leadership, hostages, and national resilience at the heart of the vote. This is the first national election since that attack.

Families of people killed or formerly held hostage observed a moment of silence in Tel Aviv before polls opened. Netanyahu has presented himself as a steady wartime leader and warned Iran of a devastating response to any attack. His critics accuse him of prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons.

The conflict has also affected Israel’s standing abroad. The article describes growing isolation, criticism from traditional allies, sanctions by some European and other partners, and falling public support among Americans. Voters are therefore choosing not only a leader, but also a course for war policy, security, military service, and international relations.

Israel uses parliamentary politics in which several parties can win representation rather than one party automatically taking all governing power. The article describes the system as fragmented and notes that no single party has ever won an outright parliamentary majority. That structure makes elections contests over blocs, alliances, and possible governing combinations.

The key mechanism is seat arithmetic. A party may lead the vote but still lack enough parliamentary seats to govern alone. It must seek partners whose combined support can produce a majority. Those partners may have different religious, nationalist, liberal, secular, or Arab-led priorities, making negotiation central to government formation.

That is why this election may not deliver an immediate winner. Netanyahu’s coalition and the parties opposing him could both fall short. Leaders would then negotiate, potentially for weeks, while Arab-led parties and other smaller groups weigh whether to support one candidate or coalition.