Cyclone Arnab: When will it make landfall, which areas are on alert?

Cyclone Arnab is an active very severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. It matters because it threatens coastal communities in Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and southern Odisha with powerful winds and heavy rain. The storm is the first cyclonic storm of the 2026 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

The India Meteorological Department reported that Arnab moved west-northwestwards at 25 kmph during the six hours before 2.30 am IST on October 27. Its centre was around 300 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam, 360 kilometres east-southeast of Kakinada and 380 kilometres south of Gopalpur in Odisha.

Arnab was still moving toward the coast when the latest bulletin was issued. It was also 460 kilometres east of Machilipatnam and 530 kilometres east of Bapatla. Authorities have issued warnings, prepared response teams and advised fishermen not to enter the sea.

Cyclone Arnab is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh-Yanam coast by the forenoon of October 28. The forecast landfall zone is between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam. This timing matters because the storm’s strongest winds and heaviest rain may affect coastal districts as it approaches and crosses the shoreline.

The storm is forecast to move west-northwestwards until Tuesday evening. It should then turn northwestwards toward the Andhra Pradesh-Yanam coast. At 2.30 am IST on October 27, it was still over the west-central Bay of Bengal, southeast of Visakhapatnam and east of several Andhra Pradesh locations.

The projected path gives authorities a limited period to prepare. Andhra Pradesh has shifted 4,711 pregnant women from vulnerable areas to health facilities. Educational institutions in affected districts are scheduled to close from October 27 to 31, while Odisha has announced closures in five vulnerable districts on October 28 and 29.

Cyclone Arnab is forecast to cross the coast with maximum sustained wind speeds of 115-125 kmph. Gusts could reach 140 kmph. That makes wind one of the storm’s most serious hazards for coastal communities, buildings, trees, power lines and people outdoors. The forecast describes the storm as very severe.

Sustained wind is the storm’s continuing wind speed, while a gust is a shorter, stronger burst. Arnab’s predicted gusts are therefore higher than its maximum sustained winds. The India Meteorological Department issued a red warning for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts as the storm moved toward land.

These forecasts explain the urgent preparations. Officials are maintaining round-the-clock vigilance, moving people from vulnerable low-lying areas and activating control rooms. Fishing has been restricted, and the IMD has advised fishermen not to venture into the sea. Strong winds are expected as Arnab approaches the coast.

Several coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha are likely to receive heavy to extremely heavy rainfall through October 29. Strong winds are also expected as Cyclone Arnab approaches the coast. These conditions matter because intense rain and powerful winds can threaten low-lying communities and make travel and emergency work more difficult.

In Odisha, Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri are among the districts expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall. The storm was centred around 380 kilometres south of Gopalpur and about 300 kilometres southeast of Visakhapatnam in the latest bulletin.

The rainfall and wind outlook has prompted restrictions and closures. Fishing and tourist access to certain vulnerable coastal and inland locations have been restricted. Schools, colleges and Anganwadi centres in five vulnerable Odisha districts will close on October 28 and 29. Andhra Pradesh educational institutions in affected districts are scheduled to remain closed through October 31.

Cyclone Arnab’s expected winds and rainfall could endanger people and damage property along its path. The authorities are especially concerned about vulnerable, low-lying areas. The article directly warns of possible loss of life and property, while strong winds, heavy rain and sea conditions increase the need for protective action.

For example, officials are evacuating people from vulnerable areas to safer locations. Fishing and tourist access to certain coastal and inland sites have been restricted. The article does not provide specific forecasts for collapsed buildings, blocked roads or power failures. Based on established cyclone risks, these hazards can disrupt transport and essential services, especially where rain and wind are intense.

The response aims to reduce those dangers before landfall. Control rooms are operating around the clock, disaster teams are deployed and officials’ leave has been cancelled in vulnerable areas. Andhra Pradesh has released Rs 27 crore to 20 districts for relief and response operations, while health facilities received 4,711 pregnant women.

Evacuations reduce danger by moving people away from exposed, low-lying locations before strong winds and heavy rain arrive. Shelters and health facilities give displaced residents a safer place to stay. School closures also keep children and staff off roads and away from buildings during the most hazardous period.

Andhra Pradesh officials shifted 4,711 pregnant women from vulnerable areas to primary health centres, community health centres and hospitals. The state deployed National Disaster Response Force and State Disaster Response Force teams. Odisha and Andhra Pradesh also arranged closures, while authorities activated round-the-clock control rooms and restricted access to vulnerable places.

These actions create time for organised rescue and relief. Officials can monitor conditions, issue warnings and respond faster when teams and supplies are positioned in advance. The measures do not stop the cyclone, but they can reduce exposure, protect essential medical care and limit loss of life and property as Arnab approaches.

A tropical cyclone forms over sufficiently warm ocean water, which adds heat and moisture to the air above it. As moist air rises and condenses into clouds, it releases heat. That extra heat can make the air rise further, lowering air pressure near the surface and drawing in more air. This self-reinforcing process can intensify the storm.

Air then flows toward the lower-pressure centre. Earth’s rotation deflects that moving air, causing the system to rotate rather than rush straight inward. The rotation is organised around the centre, while rising air and thunderstorms develop around it. The exact conditions needed for formation include warm water, moisture and enough rotational influence.

The source article identifies Arnab as a very severe cyclonic storm but does not explain its physical formation. This scientific explanation uses established meteorological knowledge. In Arnab’s case, the IMD reported intensification over the west-central Bay of Bengal and forecast very strong winds before landfall.