Israel elections: Netanyahu’s power at stake? Gadi Eisenkot's challenge, who'll win and possible poll outcomes explained

The Knesset is Israel’s national parliament. It has 120 seats, and elections decide which parties occupy them. Winning a seat means gaining representation in that legislature. It also gives a party a direct role in votes, negotiations, and government formation.

The article shows why one seat can matter. No single Israeli party has ever won an outright majority. A party with only a few seats can therefore help a larger bloc reach the 61-seat threshold needed to govern. Such a party may become a kingmaker.

This election is especially competitive. Netanyahu’s Likud and allies face an opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Polling cited in the article projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu’s alliance. The remaining seats could decide the prime minister and the next government.

The Knesset contains 120 seats. A governing majority requires at least 61, which is one more than half. That number matters because a government needs enough parliamentary support to command the legislature and survive key votes.

The article explains that no single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority. Parties must therefore combine their seats into coalitions. If one bloc wins 50 seats and another wins 52, neither can govern alone. Smaller parties holding the remaining seats may decide which side reaches 61.

The latest polling cited projected 52 seats for the opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance. Palestinian-led parties were projected to win about 13 seats. The final result could shift those figures, and coalition negotiations may determine who becomes prime minister.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political power is at stake because this election could decide whether he remains prime minister. He has been Israel’s longest-serving leader, with 19 years in office. The vote comes amid pressure over the Iran and Gaza war, making the result a major test of his leadership.

His Likud party leads a pro-Netanyahu coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. The main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces and leader of the Yashar party. Four opposition parties signed a non-aggression pact to try to remove Netanyahu.

Polling cited in the article gave the opposition bloc 52 seats and Netanyahu’s alliance 50. Netanyahu could still remain prime minister if Likud retains existing allies or finds new partners. Coalition negotiations, rather than the largest party alone, will determine the outcome.

Small parties matter because Israel’s governments are built through coalitions. No single party has ever won an outright majority, so larger blocs need partners to reach 61 seats. A small party can therefore become a kingmaker by choosing which candidate can form a government.

The article identifies several possible power brokers. Ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism have joined Netanyahu’s coalitions before but also walked away. Palestinian-led parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, were projected to win about 13 seats. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has signalled willingness to support the opposition if needed.

That support is not guaranteed. Most opposition leaders, including Eisenkot, have ruled out an alliance with Ra’am. The final balance could still force negotiations, especially if both main blocs fall short of 61 seats. Small parties may then demand policy concessions or choose a different prime ministerial candidate.

If neither main bloc reaches 61 seats, Israel enters coalition negotiations rather than immediately holding another election. President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders about their preferred prime minister. He then nominates the person he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

The nominee has up to 42 days to build a coalition. This usually requires agreements with parties outside the nominee’s main bloc. The article notes that negotiations often take weeks, because every Knesset seat matters and small parties can become kingmakers. If the nominee fails, other candidates can receive an opportunity.

This process could keep Netanyahu in office even if his bloc trails in the vote. It could also allow the opposition to form a government if it secures support from smaller parties. The final tally is expected by October 30, while formal results are due on November 4.

A party can support a government from outside the coalition by backing it on crucial votes without taking ministerial positions. This can provide enough parliamentary support to pass confidence motions, budgets, or other measures. The article does not describe a specific outside-support agreement, so this mechanism comes from established parliamentary practice.

For example, Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has reportedly signalled willingness to join the opposition bloc if it needs additional seats. In practice, outside support could mean backing a government on selected votes while remaining formally separate. The supporting party could negotiate policy commitments in return.

Such a government may be unstable because it lacks a dependable majority. The outside party can withdraw support if its demands are not met. The article already shows how coalitions can shift: Shas and United Torah Judaism have joined Netanyahu’s coalitions but also walked away. A narrow government would therefore face constant pressure.

Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters elect parties to the Knesset, and seats are distributed among the competing lists according to their support. This allows multiple parties to win representation. It also explains why a single party rarely controls parliament alone.

The article describes the practical result. Voters choose all 120 Knesset seats, while Likud, Yashar, religious parties, far-right parties, and Palestinian-led parties compete for representation. No single party has ever won an outright majority. Parties must therefore combine their seats, often through lengthy negotiations, to reach at least 61.

This structure makes election night only the first stage. Exit polls may show the likely balance, but the government depends on coalition agreements. In the cited polling, the opposition had 52 seats and Netanyahu’s alliance 50. Smaller parties could determine who reaches 61 and who becomes prime minister.